Weighing the odds.
Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games each weekend this season. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com [thephillygodfather.com].
Atlanta Falcons (0-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0), 8:15 p.m. Monday
The Line: Eagles minus-6.5/Total: 47
What is the line telling you:
This line originally opened up with the Eagles being minus-5 point favorites over the Falcons, with a combined total set at 48.5. Since then, we’ve seen some sharp money attack the screen on Philadelphia and push that price down to Eagles minus-6.5. The game total set by Vegas has also seen a 1.5-point downtick to 47. It’s still early to be looking at bet splits on this matchup since the game kicks off on Monday night and the majority of the action comes in on the same day. But the public money so far is heavily tilted to Philadelphia. As of right now, 85% of all tickets placed offshore and in Vegas are on the Eagles.
Last week, the Eagles were lucky to come out with a 34-29 victory over the Packers, after turning the ball over three times, and ending up with four less total yards than the Packers. The Falcons on the other hand weren’t as lucky, as they turned the ball over three times and ended up losing 18-10 to the Steelers. Historically, a team (like the Eagles) with a minus-2 turnover differential for the game will lose straight up 82.5% of the time, while a team like the Falcons, who lost the turnover battle 3-0, will lose 91.4% of the time.
Bottom line
In this matchup, we actually like the points and the Falcons. So, we are suggesting you wait for the price to get to Eagles minus-7, or just buy the half point to get to that key number on the Falcons now. If you remember before the season started, Atlanta’s projected season win total was set at 9.5, just one game lower than the Eagles, so regardless of what we witnessed in the first week of the season, these teams aren’t that far apart. We think the Eagles win the game, but not by more than seven.
Prop bets for the game
Use the Eagles as a 7-point teaser and bringing the price down to a pick should help you cash a ticket coupled with the Baltimore Ravens minus-1.
Bijan Robinson anytime touchdown -120
Bijan Robinson over 60 rushing yards
AROUND THE NFL
Take the Ravens -8: Las Vegas Raiders vs. Baltimore Ravens -8
Take the Panthers plus-6: Los Angeles Chargers -6 vs. Carolina Panthers
Cleveland Browns (0-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1), 1 p.m. Sunday
The Line: Jaguars minus-3/Total: 41.5
What is the line telling you:
Jacksonville’s defense last week held Miami to just 20 points, which was 9 points below their season average from last year. If you watched the Browns-Cowboys game, then you know this Browns’ offense has some serious issues moving the ball and putting points up on the board. The Browns’ offense only averaged 2.7 yards per pass attempt and 3.3 yards per play vs Dallas. The offensive line played even worse, giving up 6 sacks, and Deshaun Watson threw two interceptions. The Jags also have revenge on their minds. The last time these teams played was Week 14 last season with the Browns walking away with the 31-27 win.
Bottom line:
We like the Jags here on the moneyline and anything under a field goal.
(Betting lines via FanDuel are subject to change.)
