How can the Giants get untracked on offense?
The New York Giants travel to Landover, Maryland, to play the Washington Commanders in Week 2. Both teams lost their Week 1 matchups; the Commanders fell to the Buccaneers on the road, 37-20. Washington is a 1.5-point favorite, per FanDuel Sportsbook, and the Over/Under is 44.5. The total has shifted higher, and the line has moved toward favoring the Giants since it opened.
The Giants have won seven of the last 10 games against Washington, and there was also a tie within that period (2022). Quarterback Daniel Jones is 5-1-1 against the Commanders, with 10 of his 62 career touchdown passes thrown against the NFC East foe. However, it’s an entirely new regime in town for Washington.
Let’s look at how Washington’s defense performed in Week 1 against Tampa Bay.
Week 1 vs. Tampa Bay
The Washington defense was bad against Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers. The Commanders allowed Tampa Bay to go 9 of 13 on third downs. Joe Whitt Jr. is the defensive coordinator under defensive-minded head coach Dan Quinn. Several back-end miscommunications happened in Week 1 that could pose an opportunity for Jones and the Giants’ offense:
Defensive miscommunications:
Q1 11:43, 3rd-and-3
Q1 8:12, 3rd-and-6
Q2 14:22, 3rd-and- 7
Q2 13:02, 2nd-and-14
Q3 6:20, 1st-and-10
Q4: 15:00, 3rd-and-7
Here are some commonalities between the six plays above that exploit the zone-match coverage. Most of the alignments have the receivers inside the numbers at the snap.
Tampa Bay used condensed offensive formations and frequently motioned the outside receiver to the No. 2 receiver spot when the Buccaneers were in 3×1 sets; this changed assignments right at the snap, established favorable leverage, and led to some of the miscommunications we see above.
The Buccaneers were in 3×1 sets on 45% of their snaps and primarily operated out of 11 personnel (86% of snaps). The Giants, however, frequently used 2×2 sets (47%) against the Vikings—possibly to stay balanced and prevent overload blitz opportunities—and were in 11 personnel just 56% of snaps while operating in 12 personnel in 29% of snaps.
New York’s approach to offensive personnel groupings varied in a relatively neutral game script (the first half); Daboll employed more 11 personnel when they were in catch-up mode.
The Commanders primarily operated a middle-of-the-field closed defense, as is familiar with Dan Quinn. A lot of Cover-3 and some Cover-1. Quinn showed single-high pre-snap and rolled to Cover-2 a few times in the game, and the safeties gained the depth of a Bo Burnham song — they were deep.
Overall, the secondary played at depth, which resulted in efficient, quick game operation from Baker Mayfield, who was decisive and prompt in those plays. Jones was far from that on Sunday, and he’ll have his best opportunity to reestablish the quick game against Washington.
The Buccaneers could not establish the run against Washington. They averaged 3.7 yards, with a 31-yard Irving rush to boost the statistics. Devin Singletary may find it difficult to run, especially between the tackles.
Dan Quinn did send the blitz often against Tampa Bay, which may have happened for two reasons: first, Washington went down early in the game and went into desperation comeback mode; second, Quinn understood his talent deficiencies and decided to dictate to the offense.
Washington blitzed on 41.2% of snaps in Week 1, fourth-most in the NFL. They pressured on just 14.7% of their rushes.
Washington’s personnel
Cornerback Benjamin St. Juste and 34-year-old linebacker Bobby Wagner played every snap (63) for Quinn’s defense. Rookie defensive back Mike Sainristil played 60; DB Quan Martin and edge Frankie Luvu played 58.
Wagner is one of the smartest players in the NFL. He’s a legend, one of the pillars of the Legion of Boom, but he’s older now. Quinn has run Cover-1 (man coverage) heavily during certain years as a coordinator. He ran it last week, and Wagner could be a target for Tyrone Tracy Jr. to attack.
The secondary is young and exploitable. Physical safety Jeremy Chinn played 50 snaps, and he’s still getting comfortable in the defense. He is a tone-setting safety who brings the hammer next to Martin’s lighting quick speed.
The combination of Emmanuel Forbes and Noah Igbinoghene at cornerback opposite St. Juste is very precarious for the Commanders. Brian Daboll must try to isolate Malik Nabers — if he plays — against either of those players. However, Nabers can presumably do well against St. Juste. Percy Butler, a 24-year-old safety, only played 24 snaps as he adjusts to the new defense.
Former Dallas Cowboy Dorance Armstrong and Clelin Ferrell led the edge players in snaps. Armstrong had two pressures and a quarterback hit, and Ferrell was credited with a sack. Luvu drops down from linebacker and operates as an edge; he rushed the passer ten times, recording two pressures in Week 1. He’s an underrated defensive asset who has previously given the Giants problems.
Former first-round pick Jamin Davis shifted from linebacker to edge and only played 13 snaps in the game. Former Cowboy Dante Fowler Jr. only played 20 snaps but recorded three pressures.
The defense’s strength—and possibly the team’s minus their exciting quarterback—is its defensive line. Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne have historically been stout against the Giants. Former 2022 second-round pick out of Alabama, Phidarian Mathis, played 23 snaps as the third defensive lineman, with 2024 second-round pick Johnny Newton still recovering from his foot surgery.
Giants’ game plan
I hope to see more 11 personnel in neutral game-scripts. Passing against the Commanders shouldn’t be an issue. Allen and Payne are talented defensive linemen who are stout against the run. I prefer attacking outside the C-Gaps when running the football, but Andrew Thomas and Jermaine Eluemunor should hold their own in protection against Washington’s edges.
The Buccaneers did not test the interior part of the defensive line. The Giants haven’t tried it often over the last few years, but Quinn’s system differs slightly from Jack Del Rio’s unit. Still, I expect the Giants to try some counter from 12 personnel or TRAP/WHAM against even fronts. Manhertz on the play-side of these runs will help create space for Singletary and Tracy Jr.
I expect to see the verticality and some air yards from the Giants’ offense against this secondary personnel, which also coincides with Quinn’s single-high structure. There should be one-on-one matchups on the outside for Nabers and Darius Slayton. When Quinn’s defense bails to two-high shells, the space in the short and intermediate parts of the field for Wan’Dale Robinson will be there.
Jones has to access all areas of the field like Mayfield did against Washington. The Giants should condense their offensive formations using BUNCH (3X1) and tight STACKS (2×2) to create traffic vs. man and confusion vs. match; it’s incumbent on Jones to target the field side outside the numbers with anticipation on three-level reads. He MUST anticipate the soft spots in the zone and attack with confidence. Mayfield did this, and Washington could not stop him, nor did they appear aware of the offense’s intentions.
If Nabers is healthy, the Giants should showcase their new weapon early and often. This should be the first true Malik Nabers game plan. Benjamin St. Juste is Washington’s top cornerback. Both of Evans’ touchdowns came against St. Juste, but the former Golden Gopher was in solid coverage. He will be tasked to cover Nabers when the rookie is on the outside, and the Giants have to exploit that matchup.
Three-man route concepts that flood one side of the field is an option, as are switch releases – concepts Jones and Daboll have run since they’ve worked together. Use of motion pre-snap to create secondary conflict should be employed, as should split-back Wan’Dale Robinson to exploit the linebacker matchup when aligned against the elder Bobby Wagner.
This game plan will likely fall heavily on Jones, who has historically performed well against Washington, for what it’s worth. However, Jones has not historically targeted the field (wide side) of defenses with accuracy. Forcing Washington’s defense to play the more conservative approach that was used in Week 1 against Tampa will lead to more breathing room underneath and, hopefully, a more rhythmic quick game that can get Jones in a comfortable groove. Jones must be judicious and decisive with his quick game-passing concepts; he was very hesitant against the Vikings, who, in all fairness, did a good job forcing that indecision.
Final thoughts
This game is very winnable for the Giants, which sounds crazy after seeing last week’s debacle. If the Giants struggle to move the football against this defense – who have arguably the worst defensive personnel in the league – then serious changes must happen. The pressure will be on the quarterback’s shoulders in a light matchup on the road.
