Lions vs. Buccaneers Week 2 preview, prediction: On Paper

Our On Paper preview continues for Week 2 of the 2024 Detroit Lions season. This week, it’s another playoff rematch with Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back in town. Can the Lions move to 2-0 on the season and 2-0 against playoff teams from last year?

Let’s take an analytical look at the matchup and make a prediction for Lions vs. Bucs.

Note: I will still be using 2023 data for DVOA rankings, as the defining feature of DVOA is adjusting for opponents, and we don’t have enough info on opponents until Week 4. All other data is from 2024, unless otherwise stated.

Lions pass offense (7th in DVOA) vs. Buccaneers pass defense (14th)

Last week: 200 passing yards, 85.0 passer rating vs. Rams

The Lions passing offense was one of the best last season, but it’s hard to know what to make of it after Week 1. The Rams pass defense was average in a lot of ways last season, but they gave Detroit some trouble last week. Jared Goff was still able to create a few explosive plays, but the consistent unit we saw in 2023 wasn’t quite where it needed to be.

“The passing game is always going to be the last to come,” coach Dan Campbell told 97.1 The Ticket this week. “The precision of your passing game is the hardest thing to really find in a rhythm in, because everyone has to be on the same page, the timing of the QB, the receivers, the protection holding up long enough, so it’s the last thing that comes. So of course we want it to be better, but I’m also not surprised that we were off a little bit.”

That could very well be true, and a look at the film certainly did not make it look like the Rams did anything special to take the likes of Amon-Ra St. Brown (13 yards) or Sam LaPorta (45 yards) away.

Of course, you can’t talk about the Lions passing offense without talking about the breakout performance of Jameson Williams last week. His five catch, 121 yard performance was a perfect example of his growth. Yes, they had the 52-yard deep shot, but the rest of his catches came on a variety of routes.

Maybe the biggest disappointment from Week 1 was the team’s pass protection. Goff wasn’t often comfortable in the pocket. Detroit ranked 12th in PFF pass blocking grade and 12th in ESPN’s pass block win rate. Certainly not horrible, but also not up to Detroit’s lofty standards set by the 2023 team.

Oh, right. And Penei Sewell missed the first two practices of the week with an ankle injury. His availability is unclear.

Last week: 161 yards allowed, 93.1 passer rating vs. Commanders

Last year, the Buccaneers really struggled to defend the pass, and I’m not going to take too much from their performance last week against rookie QB Jayden Daniels in his first career start on a rebuilding Commanders team. That said, the Bucs posted the ninth-worst coverage grade by PFF (56.0) and 21st ranked pass rush grade (60.6)—although they ranked eighth in ESPN’s pass rush win rate.

The big story this week is the health of the Buccaneers’ secondary. Here’s a look at what they’re dealing with this week:

• All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield is presumed OUT with a foot/ankle sprain
• CB Bryce Hall went on IR after Week 1 (non-starter, but contributor)
• Starting CB Zyon McCollum suffered a concussion, but was full in practice Thursday
• Depth DB Josh Hayes suffered an ankle injury, did not practice Wednesday or Thursday

The Bucs still have some talented players out there like cornerback Jamel Dean, nickelback Christian Izien (who may drop to safety), and safety Jordan Whitehead. But they’ll have to lean on their depth on the back end, too, and Detroit could take advantage.

Tampa’s pass rush could change the game, but they also may be without Calijah Kancey, who is dealing with a calf injury and did not practice Wednesday or Thursday. That said, look out for Yaya Diaby and Lavonte David, who combined for eight pressures in Week 1.

Player to watch: Jameson Williams. With his breakout performance last week and Winfield not manning the back end, I would not be surprised if Jamo connects on another huge play this week.

Advantage: Lions +1.5. The only thing that really worries me about this matchup is linebacker Lavonte David. He’s one of the best in the league, and Goff tends to struggle against strong linebackers. At 34 years old, he’s not at the top of his game, but he can be a force both as a pass rusher and coverage player. Regardless, the Lions have better personnel than the Bucs. I’m simply being a bit conservative with my estimate here because of the lack of data, Tampa’s strong defensive coaching staff, and Detroit’s tepid performance in Week 1.

Lions run offense (4th in DVOA) vs. Buccaneers run defense (8th)

Last week: 163 rushing yards, 5.3 YPC vs. Rams

It was mostly business as usual for the Lions rushing attack in Week 1. Though there was a mid-game lull, Detroit proved early and late in the game that their rushing attack from 2023 is alive and well. Here’s how their Week 1 performance ranked across the league:

• 163 yards — 7th
• 5.3 yards per carry — 6th
• +0.37 EPA/rush — 2nd
• 67.7% success rate — 1st

Yeah, I think this running game is going to be okay.

Lask week: 138 rushing yards allowed, 4.6 yards per carry vs. Commanders

Last year, the Bucs had one of the best rush defenses in the league. They absolutely shut down Detroit’s run game in the first matchup—although the Lions were without Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery left the game in the first half. But Detroit found success in the postseason matchup (26 rushes, 114 yards, 2 TDs).

In Week 1 this year, it looks like the Bucs struggled, but that is a bit misleading. Of the Commanders’ 138 rushing yards, quarterback Jayden Daniels was responsible for 88. Washington’s running backs combined for just 50 rushing yards on 14 attempts (3.6 YPC). So I’m making the executive decision of throwing out last week’s results completely and assuming this is a pretty damn good run defense again this year.

Player to watch: Vita Vea. The dominant nose tackle produced a team-high three run stops last week and finished second on the team with 23 last year. The 347-pound defender is strong as hell and is capable of doing this to NFL talent:

Advantage: Lions +1. Last year, the Lions didn’t see a ton of success in the run game against the Bucs, and even when they did, they didn’t put up huge numbers. That said, the Bucs are beat up and the Lions have proven over the course of a couple years that they’re one of the biggest challenges for defenses. I’ll give the Lions a very slight edge here.

Buccaneers pass offense (16th) vs. Lions pass defense (16th)

Last week: 280 passing yards, 146.4 passer rating vs. Commanders

While the Buccaneers passing offense was average for the entire 2023 season, they certainly seemed to figure things out toward the end of the season. Here’s a snippet from our Lions/Bucs playoff preview last year:

While the overall DVOA is mid, here are some of their pass offense rankings since Week 8:

12th in DVOA

6th in EPA

12th success rate

8th in passer rating

12th in yards per attempt

What do we make of Baker Mayfield’s impressive Week 1 performance? Hard to say. He was undeniably great, but strength of opponent matters, and the Commanders may be one of the worst teams in football. Last year, they ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA last year, allowing an average of 262 passing yards (32nd) and a passer rating of 105.7 (32nd). So… all we know is that Mayfield can be excellent against the worst of the worst.

That said, Mayfield’s career has been on an upward trajectory since landing with the Bucs, and he’s got an impressive duo of receivers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. And don’t overlook rookie third-round pick Jalen McMillan, who had a 32-yard touchdown catch in his NFL debut last week.

As for pass protection, they have one of the best pass blocking left tackles in football in Tristan Wirfs, but they do have some serious questions on the interior. Their starting three gave up five total pressures last week. Right guard Cody Mauch has struggled in his young career (eight sacks allowed last year), newly-added left guard Ben Bredeson was a part of the Giants’ historically awful line last year, and while center Graham Barton is a first-round pick, this will just be his second career game.

Perhaps most concerning for the Bucs is right tackle Luke Goedeke currently in concussion protocol and on track to miss the game. Veteran backup Justin Skule would likely step in for him, but the 27-year-old tackle has not started a game since 2020.

But in Week 1, Mayfield must have escaped at least five would-be sacks, so Detroit will have to be better at finishing plays this week.

Last week: 304 passing yards allowed, 85.2 passer rating vs. Rams

The Lions pass defense got a facelift this offseason, and it’s really hard to gauge how improved it really is after Week 1.

The pass rush looked much improved, finishing the week with the 10th best pass rush win rate and top PFF pass rush grade of the week. But they were also going up against fourth and fifth string offensive tackles. And this week, it appears they’re going to be without Marcus Davenport, leaving All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs with a much easier assignment in Derrick Barnes or Josh Paschal.

The Lions secondary was very up and down. They had opportunities to pick off three passes from Matthew Stafford (they got one), but Stafford also managed to take advantage of soft coverage while also making ridiculous throw after ridiculous throw.

All of that is to say, I still don’t have a great grasp on what this defense is capable of. I’m optimistic, but I still need to see it.

Player to watch: Mike Evans. Detroit didn’t do a great job with Cooper Kupp. But Evans is an entirely different player. Detroit’s secondary held up in preventing deep shots in Week 1, as Stafford was just 3-of-11 with an interception on passes 10+ yards down field. Evans’ average depth of target last year was 14.4, good for fifth highest in the NFL. So the Lions defense will have to hold up similarly this week.

Advantage: Bucs +1.5. I am a bit concerned here that Mayfield will buy extra time with his feet and that will leave Detroit’s untested secondary out to dry against an excellent receiving corps. That said, Detroit’s interior pass rush could be the difference maker here—along with Aidan Hutchinson vs. a backup right tackle—and lest we not forget the Lions’ impressive safety duo in Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch, who combined for four pass breakups and a pick last week.

Buccaneers run offense (28th) vs. Lions run defense (1st)

Last week: 112 rushing yards, 3.7 yards per carry vs. Commanders

The Bucs did not have a good run game last year, but with new offensive coordinator Liam Coen, there is expected to be a newfound emphasis on pounding the rock.

“I think there is more of a commitment to run the ball,” Dan Campbell said this week. “There is a much more concerted effort to run the ball and I think there is a perfect play mentality with this offense.”

The early results are not exactly that impressive. The Commanders posted the highest “stuff rate” in the NFL last week with 36.7 percent of Bucs rushes earning no gain or a loss of yardage. Their overall statline is inflated by a 31-yard from rookie running back Bucky Irving. Without that run, Tampa would have finished the day with 29 rushes for 81 yards—or just 2.79 yards per carry. And mind you, the Commanders were a bottom-10 run defense last year.

Last week: 83 rushing yards allowed, 3.6 YPC vs. Rams

The Lions had arguably the best run defense in football last year, and they’re off to a pretty promising start again this year. Last week, they ranked 11th in rush EPA, eighth in yards per carry, and 15th in stuffed percentage.

Now this week they get to add DJ Reader to the group. Look out.

Player to watch: Reader vs. Barton. Reader may not be at his best given he’s coming off injury, but he’s going to be one hell of a test for the Bucs rookie center. Last week, Barton earned a 49.2 PFF run blocking grade, which was the lowest among all NFL centers.

Advantage: Lions +3. I hesitate to give out such a big advantage this early in the season, but this is as lopsided as a matchup gets this early in the season. Mayfield tucking and running could give Detroit problems, but I have very little concerns elsewhere. I expect Detroit to make Tampa one dimensional this week.

Last week’s prediction:

In terms of overall score, my 31-24 Lions prediction ended up looking pretty darn good. However, I severely underestimated both the Lions run offense (given just a +1 advantage) and the Lions run defense (even). That said, the Lions running stats would’ve looked a lot more pedestrian had the game ended in regulation (24 carries, 103 yards, 4.3 YPC). I also didn’t foresee some struggles in the passing game for Detroit, but it’s hard to know if that was just first game jitters after a few moving parts. Overall, my insight into Detroit’s 2024 squad remains relatively unchanged, but with possibly a renewed faith in their ground game on both sides.

In the comment section, Big.AL kicked off the On Paper season with a perfect 26-20 Lions prediction. Here is your prize, Big.AL:

I’m coming for you, AL.

This week’s prediction:

I have the Lions with a +3 advantage in this matchup, which is pretty significant. That said, if Mayfield balls out in the way Stafford did last week—and Baker has been playing very well for a pretty long stretch dating to last season—he could keep the Bucs in the game and even pull of a potential upset.

But, in general, the team who is better in the trenches will come out victorious, and that is the Lions on both sides of the ball (Sewell’s injury status, pending). Give me the Lions in a game that isn’t as close as this score would indicate. Lions 34, Bucs 24.