Big Blue View mailbag: Draft, draft, draft and more draft

Doug Mollin asks: Is there any scenario you can think of where the Giants do not draft a QB this year?

Current odds have us taking Carter at No. 3 and passing on Sanders.

Seems that leaves a lot to chance for getting a QB later — Sanders and Dart should go in the first, Milroe too (or even at No. 33 to the Browns). Do any of the other QB prospects move the needle enough to take them at No. 34? What is the hit rate on a QB if they wait until No. 65?

They can always try to trade up but that comes with a significant cost in draft capital.

Anyway, is there a path where you see the Giants going Carter then some combination of DT, OG, OT with picks 34, 65, 99? Kick the QB can to 2026?

Ed says: Doug, that is always possible. I learned a long time ago to never say never.

I don’t think it happens that way. I think the Giants will want to bring — at least — a developmental quarterback into the room who could become an upgrade over Tommy DeVito.

As for the hit rate, this is the best information I can give you.

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Evan Hanauer asks: Seeing as the draft is the primary focus lately, let’s throw a curveball and ask something else: There are still plenty of FAs available who perhaps should have found homes by now, and we’re still taking visits from some. I know the draft will be a factor, as will UDFAs, cap space, and FA price points, but are there any FAs still available that might intrigue you/the Giants to take a swing at? I, for one, wouldn’t mind us taking a look at Asante Samuel Jr., for example.

Ed says: Evan, I really have not looked at the free agent market lately. I would think that after the draft the Giants would reassess and see if there are still positions they can upgrade. At a quick glance, there isn’t anyone I would really bang the table for as a difference-maker.

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James Adams asks: Schoen and Daboll most likely have this season to show their plan is the right plan and the team is improving. Part of that plan is having the right guy at QB. If you are in Schoen’s shoes are you drafting Sanders if he falls in your lap or risking taking BPA and missing out on one of the top three QBs (I feel like Dart most likely won’t make it to us in the second round as Pittsburgh at No. 21 feels about the range that Dart will land requiring a trade up and Cleveland would most certainly take him one pick ahead of us in the 2nd round). Thoughts?

Ed says: James, I keep coming back to the pressure Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll are under to field a better product in 2025, and how Schoen referenced that so often at the Combine. I’m taking the best player on the board at No. 3 who can help achieve the goal of being better this season. Then, I’m still trying to figure out a way to get a potential quarterback of the future.

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John Foti asks: Let’s say you had the opportunity to trade back from No. 3 to No. 6. If Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter is available at No. 3 would you do it for either one or is there one you could not pass up taking?

Ed says: John, I am a proponent of trading down and getting extra swings in the draft. In this case, though, there is a clear difference from Carter and Hunter to the other prospects in the draft. I am not trading down and giving that up. I might consider it if the trade down is a couple of spots to still take a quarterback, but I don’t think I want to mess with that in this draft.

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Bob Lommel asks: Previously it was stated that Evan Neal would cost more money than Kayvon Thibodeaux. Why?

Ed says: Bob, the question was about whether or not the Giants would pick up the fifth-year option on Neal’s contract. Fifth-year options are based on the average of the top five salaries at a player’s position over the previous five seasons.

Thibodeaux and Neal were both first-round picks in 2022. The fifth-year option for Thibodeaux would cost the Giants $14.751 million, per Over The Cap. The fifth-year option for Neal would cost $16.685 million.

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Robert Goodman asks: Do you believe that Jalen Milroe being invited to attend the draft means that he is definitely being drafted in the first round? How would the NFL know this? What do you think is more likely that a team selects him w/ their first round selection or trades back in. Could you see the Giants trading back in to get him? Have you heard that they have great interest in him? It didn’t seem that they [had] many people and none of the top people at this pro day.

Ed says: Robert, if you listen to Todd McShay, Daniel Jeremiah or a handful of other draft insiders you understand that there is a sharing of information between teams and respected insiders. Both sides — teams and media members — are looking for information. You give, you get, everybody benefits.

The NFL is the ultimate insider. If they invited Milroe, they have a pretty good indication that — at worst — he will be selected fairly early in Round 2.

Yes, I can see the Giants trading back into Round 1 for Milroe. I couldn’t tell you right now what their pecking order of quarterbacks is between Milroe, Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough. It is clear, though, that they have enough interest to continue doing work on all of these guys right up to the end.

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Karl Oltz asks: As all us Giants fans know, at the end of last season, John Mara said that finding a QB was their primary focus. We also know that Wilson and Winston are not the long term answer for the Giants.

My question is, does Schoen and Daboll have control over the draft so they can draft who they believe is the best player at No. 3, QB or not, or could they be forced to draft a QB if that is what Mara wants?

Ed says: Karl, I don’t have any inside information on this. I can only go by what I know about Mara and how he has approached Joe Schoen’s tenure as general manager.

I do not believe Mara would dictate to Schoen and Daboll, or overrule what they want to do. Be aware, though, that when it comes to a decision like taking a quarterback at No. 3 overall, ownership is always going to have to give the OK before the team turns in that card.

Mara did not want the Giants to trade Odell Beckham Jr., but he let Dave Gettleman do so. He did not want to lose Saquon Barkley, especially to the Philadelphia Eagles, but he did not put his foot down and stop that from happening. He easily could have.

I don’t doubt that there might be some impatience from ownership for Schoen, who has yet to select a quarterback in his first three drafts, to select a quarterback at some point. That’s why the 34th pick is interesting.

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Warren Schuman asks: I have a question about the potential of drafting Travis Hunter. Generally speaking, if you pick a WR 3rd in the draft, you’re expecting a WR1 and all-pro talent. The Giants just got that in Malik Nabers. I think that’s an exciting pair with the potential of being the most dynamic WR duo in football. But I wonder about the egos. WRs tend to be divas and can become distractions if they’re not getting the ball. Is this something a GM/coach would consider in making the selection? And would a GM or coach have a conversation with Nabers to get his feedback gauge his support? I know they may do so with QBs but I haven’t heard that with other positions.

Ed says: Warren, I don’t know why Nabers would have a problem with the Giants drafting Hunter. There are plenty of targets for Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in Cincinnati. I don’t see Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle complaining about each other in Miami. The Vikings drafted Jordan Addison to play alongside Justin Jefferson.

I don’t know if the Giants view Hunter as a wide receiver first or as a cornerback first. Most analysts seem to think full-time cornerback, part-time receiver is the way to go. Figuring that out is not my problem.

I don’t know why a GM would have to talk to a receiver about adding another receiver.

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Dan G. asks: With Carter a real possibility at No. 3, what about moving Kayvon to traditional LB like they did with Kiwanuka? If memory serves, the book on Kayvon was that he was an excellent at speed rush and closing the gap on runners but his pass rush tools were (and maybe remain) pretty green. Feels like a skill set more aligned with open field LB that occasionally blitzes?

Ed says: Dan, I think you are misremembering how the Giants used Mathias Kiwanuka. In those days the Giants were a base 4-3 team. When Kiwanuka wasn’t at defensive end, he was usually stationed at outside linebacker. Once Michael Strahan retired, he was primarily a true 4-3 defensive end.

Kayvon Thibodeaux is an outside linebacker, or edge defender, in a 3-4 base defense. I disagree about Thibodeaux as a rusher. He is a power and effort rusher, not a speed rusher. He is also 260 pounds, when most of your off-ball linebackers now are 20 to 30 pounds lighter than that.

Maybe he could play it, but I don’t know. On the other hand, Carter was an off-ball linebacker who didn’t move to the edge until last season. Using him there at least occasionally is probably not a perfect solution, but there is at least some evidence that he can play it.

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Bob Donnelly asks: When two players are being compared we often hear comments regarding their projected floor and ceiling. What is your view on selecting player X vs Y when X has a higher floor but Y has a higher ceiling?

Ed says: Bob, I don’t think there is a blanket “always take the higher ceiling” or “always take the higher floor” answer.

In general, I might lean toward the higher ceiling. For example, I might understand taking the big swing on Jalen Milroe rather than opting for Tyler Shough. The chance of hitting big with Milroe might not be great, but if you do the payoff could be huge.

I guess I would say each case is unique. How much risk can you tolerate? Maybe the high ceiling player is a developmental guy who needs time before he gets on the field, but you need a player who can contribute right now.

I always think it’s easier for a good team to accept risk because if a player doesn’t pan out they can overcome that more easily. If you’re the Eagles and Jalen Carter doesn’t pan out, so what? You move on, and you’re still a really good team. If you’re the Giants and the seventh pick in the draft (I see you Evan Neal) doesn’t pan out, that hurts your build for years.

So, I think it’s case by case.

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KWright asks: For the sake of argument, let’s say the Titans agree with many scouts and analysts and decide it wouldn’t be prudent to pass on a “generational” talent and draft Travis Hunter at #1. Then let’s say the Browns follow suit and take Abdul Carter. This leaves the Giants at #3 with the option to draft Cam Ward or likewise pass and take whomever they assess as the best player available. Which direction do you believe the Giants would go?

Ed says: Simple. You run to the podium and select Ward. What other choice would there be? Ward, though, is not getting to pick No. 3. No chance.

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Mark P. Lynch asks: It seems that Big Blue nation is overly concerned about the OL. it is almost manic. I think with a healthy year from Thomas and a few tweaks plus a RG the line will be fine. I am more concerned with the DL. I see Lawrence and just a bunch of has beens, never was’s and a bunch of wannabe’s. This draft is supposed to be deep at DL, OL, RB and TE. IF Hunter and Carter weren’t so head and shoulders above everyone else Im would advocate DT Graham at #3. I believe that the Giants need to add to the DL early as possible Walker from KY at 6-7. 340 would look good next to Lawrence. If he is there at #65 I would not hesitate to grab him. Plus maybe someone like Rylie Mills in 5th and beyond. What is your take on the Giants DL.

Ed says: Mark, I’m not going to get into your individual player evaluations. Those are yours and you are welcome to them. Everybody has different players they like and don’t like.

I agree that there is a need on the defensive line, and Joe Schoen understands that. In a deep defensive line class I will be surprised if he doesn’t add to that group somewhere in the first five rounds.

I disagree that the offensive line doesn’t need attention. The Giants did not draft any offensive linemen a year ago? Where is the young, developmental talent that could step in a year from now if Greg Van Roten is gone? Are there young players who could replace Jon Runyan Jr. or Jermaine Eleumunor, who have no guaranteed money beyond this season?

Van Roten is 35. If his play declines this year, who is the right guard? Evan Neal? Jake Kubas? Josh Ezeudu? Do you feel good about any of those options?

The offensive line should be supplemented in EVERY draft. You need more of them than any other position in football, and not continually feeding the pipeline is a mistake. That doesn’t mean you need to use Day 1 or day 2 assets every year, but there should always be at least one developmental offensive lineman in a draft class.

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James Stoll asks: I am writing this 8 days before the draft. The consensus at the moment is that the Giants will not take Sanders at # 3 overall. Assuming that is true, the additional consensus seems to be that the Giants have to select a QB in this draft, with most pundits projecting it in Round 2. It is the second consensus assumption I challenge. Statistics tell us that QB’s taken outside the first round have around a 2% chance of being a successful starter in the NFL. In addition, in a situation like what the Giants have now — Wilson & Winston — how are there enough practice reps to begin to develop or even evaluate a so-called developmental QB? In short, in my view, any QB taken in this draft projects at best as a perennial back-up. While I can get on board with a QB selection on Day 3, I can’t see the upside of taking any of the QB candidates on Day 2. How do you see both the likelihood that a QB is taken Day 2 and the wisdom of such a pick?

Ed says: James, there are several different ways this draft could go. Five quarterbacks could go in Round 1, or maybe only two. Jaxson Dart could be a Round 1 pick, and probably will be, but he could be available for the Giants at No. 34. Jalen Milroe could go in Round 1. He could go in Round 3. Tyler Shough could go in Round 1. He could go in Round 4.

As Brian Daboll has said, it’s about how the team — the Giants — feel about the player. Not how anyone else feels about the player.

If there is a quarterback available at 34 that the organization believes in, I am fine with them taking him. I think that is a viable scenario in this draft. If they take a swing on Day 3, fine. The long-term expectation for a Day 3 player would have to be different than for a quarterback taken higher, but at some point Joe Schoen has to put a rookie quarterback on the roster.

As for development, Matt Waldman of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio and I have talked about this a lot over the years. Waldman points out that most development in terms of footwork, throwing mechanics, etc., comes with private coaches during the offseason. For a rookie quarterback during the season it is about adjusting to NFL life, adjusting to the attention, to living on his own, to handling people who want a player’s time — and money. It’s about adjusting to the practice schedule, and the organizational expectations for a quarterback.

It isn’t about practice snaps.

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Raymond Dansereau asks: I’m getting comfortable with the idea of selecting from the second tier or QBs, partly because there seems to be a fair agreement on what they are. Chris’s take on Shough, or Milroe, for instance, seems to line up with a consensus on their strengths and weaknesses. Now while there seems to be more variance with someone like Jaxson Dart (I’d like to see a Chis/Nick debate), where there seems like real variance is on Shedeur. Some say his arm is perfectly fine, not a “plus” arm, maybe, but enough to make all the throws; others see his arm as a significant liability. Think Chad Pennington, yes, he could pull it off, but everything else had to be just right, so margin for error (or injury) was small.

Am I right? Just reading too many takes? Is there a stronger than usual gap in what people are saying on Shedeur, and why do you think that is?

Ed says: Raymond, there are a lot of reasons for the variance in opinions on Shedeur Sanders.

First and foremost, I think, is the reality that there isn’t a single physical trait that any scout would call a “plus.” He is an average athlete for the position with an acceptable but not upper echelon arm. His size is acceptable, but he is on the smaller side.

He has a tremendous completion percentage, but is he as accurate as some say? The majority of his throws are within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Per Pro Football Focus, Sanders’ average depth of target per throw was 81 yards last season, 134th among quarterbacks.

Here is a chart from The Athletic:

Here is a chart from Pro Foootball Focus:

If you select Sanders in Round 1, you are banking on his decision-making to be pristine, his accuracy to be what the completion percentage says it is, his leadership and his pedigree. Most of that is hard to quantify. Some think Sanders is Joe Burrow. Some think he’s nothing more than an adequate starter.

The other factor is, of course, whether you worry or don’t worry about the potential for his father, Deion Sanders, to create distraction should things not proceed in a manner he approves of.

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