Let’s Get This Party Started!

Hey, all! This is the first article from Shawn, who is one of the two people we selected from the contest we ran earlier this year about joining the DN team. Welcome him aboard! -Chris

First and foremost, I want to thank the Daily Norseman leadership for the opportunity to join the contributor team. I’m incredibly fortunate and grateful for the opportunity. Here’s hoping to provide the DN community with the same kind of insightful and engaging content that has defined this site since its inception.

To quote the great 20^th century philosopher Al Bundy: “Let’s Rock.”

With everyone at the DN covering the upcoming draft so thoroughly, any article on that would be both redundant and inferior; that can wait for another post. Instead, let’s have some lighthearted fun with this blank canvas and paint a picture of a successful 2025 Minnesota Vikings season.

Where We Stand: Offense

I’ll address the QB position in a moment. As for the other starting 10, this is a superior unit to 2024 by any objective measure. Aaron Jones had a fantastic season, yet at age 30 and coming off a career-high in carries (255), a complement was needed. Enter Jordan Mason with his impressive YPC (5.2) and league-leading forced missed tackle rate (37.1%). I absolutely love this backfield. On the outside, Rondale Moore’s elite 4.28 speed and versatility in the run game brings an added dimension to the WR3 rotation. The main event, however, was in the interior trenches. The additions of Ryan Kelly and Will Fries were nothing short of a neutron bomb being thrown into the old way of doing things. There will be no more trying to coach guys up hoping they live up to their draft position. No more tackle-to-guard experiments. Enough was enough. Proven commodity time. The result? For the first time in what seems like an eternity, the interior offensive line may be…a strength? Perhaps. There are pesky age and injury concerns. At left guard, Blake Brandel could theoretically be supplanted with a poor offseason and training camp, but that assumes a viable alternative arises.

Where We Stand: Defense

The additions of Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave make the front seven the most lethal since…2017? Definitely. As with the interior o-line additions, one must acknowledge age and injury issues. Totally fair. Yet if the stars align (yeah, yeah, I know…Vikings), it wouldn’t shock me if this front seven meets – if not exceeds – the heights of the peak Zimmer era. Unfortunately, the secondary welcomes uncertainty. Safety or cornerback could be the play at #24, we shall see. Chemistry and Flores’s unique scheme wrinkles could be an early factor with Isaiah Rodgers, Jeff Okudah, etc. How Mekhi Blackmon responds after a serious knee injury bears watching, as does the development and emergence of Theo Jackson at safety in a post-Cam Bynum reality. Harrison Smith returning for Year 14 calms the nerves for sure, but questions remain. Do not be shocked if a major contributor in the secondary this year is not currently on the roster. Stay tuned.

The Unanswered Question: J.J. McCarthy

My entry into the DN contributor contest discussed my unwavering faith in J.J. McCarthy to be the franchise quarterback we’ve longed for since the Bee Gees topped the charts. So, there’s no use repeating any of that here.

Could I be wrong? Absolutely. Ask my wife. Heck, I’m about to close out my second decade without managing to make a perfect Costco run.

For what to expect from McCarthy, it’s only logical to look at those taken alongside him in Round 1 of the 2024 draft (sans Michael Penix due to limited sample size). The statistics of Caleb William, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and Bo Nix, divided by games started (63), give you these per game averages:

65.95% / 208.8 passing yards / 1.41 TDs / 0.59 INTs

I purposefully did not calculate rushing statistics as Jayden Daniels (nearly 900) skewed the sample too much, as the rest were >400 but <500. I would expect McCarthy to fall within the latter range.

Over a 17-game season, this projects to the following:

66.0% / 3,550 passing yards / 24 TDs / 10 INTs

Of course, this is not an exact science. Variables abound. Some were in situations that welcomed maximum success (Nix), while others were not (Williams). Some blew past even the loftiest of expectations (Daniels), while others performed just as one would expect – highs, lows, and in-betweens (Maye).

This only strengthens the argument that those numbers may be the floor for J.J. McCarthy.

Why? Kevin O’Connell. The NFL Coach of the Year. Fresh off a well-earned extension. The Quarterback Whisperer. The guy Houdini would look at exasperated and say, “Yeah, I got nothing.”

The 4^th Year Magic?

I thought it prudent to look at how active head coaches fared in their fourth season. The numbers are encouraging:

• Mike Tomlin (2010): 12-4 (reached Super Bowl)
• John Harbaugh (2011): 12-4 (reached AFC Championship Game)
• Andy Reid (2016): 12-4 (reached Divisional Round)
• Sean McVay (2020): 10-6 (reached Divisional Round)
• Sean McDermott (2020): 13-3 (reached AFC Championship Game)
• Kyle Shanahan (2020): 6-10* (missed playoffs)
• Matt LaFleur (2022): 8-9 (missed playoffs)
• Zac Taylor (2022): 12-4 (reached AFC Championship Game)
• Nick Sirianni (2024): 14-3 (Super Bowl Champions)

*Kyle Shanahan posted a 6-10 record due to an insane 166.6 adjusted games (AGL) lost due to injury or COVID, which was the second-highest total in two decades. Jimmy G, Bosa, Kinlaw, Greenlaw, Kittle, Samuel, Sherman, etc. Stephen King-level stuff. The year before they won 13 games and made the Super Bowl. The following three years they won 10, 13, and 12 games, respectively.

That’s a combined record of 99-47 (67.8% winning percentage). Yes, this doesn’t account for recent examples such as Mike McCarthy in Dallas, who went 12-5 in Year 4 but was fired after Year 5. Then there was Kliff Kingsbury in Arizona, who was fired following a 4-13 campaign in Year 4. Context is worth mentioning here. The former was on an expiring contract in the most precarious coaching situation in the entire NFL. The latter had a combined record of 28-37-1. KOC is 34-17.

Getting to Year 4 is a challenge, especially in the modern NFL environment. The average tenure of a new hire is approximately three years. This decade, at least five head coaches have been fired each season (a total of 32 firings by 2025). I don’t think anyone would argue that KOC is closer to the trajectory of a McVay at this point than Kingsbury. I can’t imagine a scenario where he isn’t here a year from now, regardless of how 2025 unfolds.

Of course, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention recent examples in Vikings’ history. Mike Zimmer’s 4^th year? 13-3 and a trip to the NFC Championship Game. I forgot what happened next. Brad Childress’s 4^th year? 12-4 and a trip to the NFC Championship Game. I forgot what happened next.

Does that mean we automatically punch our ticket to the postseason? No. What’s the glaring difference between the 2025 Minnesota Vikings and those active coaches listed above? None trotted out a 22-year-old first-time starter in Year 4. Skepticism is understandable. The concerns are valid. Given the stated advantages above, however, a lot more would need to happen for the Vikings to regress to 6-8 wins than to not be in contention for a Wild Card spot in late December. If Bo Nix can do it with an inferior roster…yeah… J.J. McCarthy can do it.

Year 4 is a sweet spot for success. On the field, scheme intricacies are ingrained in every facet of the team’s DNA. Off the field, an ideal culture is firmly established. Synergy in vision with the general manager welcomes an optimized roster. Check. Check. Check.

The Crystal Ball Says…

I have this nice little parental trick where I paraphrase/steal Mr. Miyagi quotes to make me sound (a lot) wiser. One of my favorites is: “It’s okay to lose to an opponent; you must not lose to fear!” As a Vikings fan, I’ve been losing to fear for decades. It’s all I know because it’s all history has allowed. Some success appears. Hope rises. Heartbreak follows. Rinse. Repeat. Elton John sang about the Circle of Life. I rage against the Loop of Doom.

Well, I guess now is as good a time as any to take my…eh…Mr. Miyagi’s…advice. It’s time to show fear who’s boss.

In addition to the reasoning above, this prediction is based on the feelings that:

1. Chicago will take a step forward under Ben Johnson
2. Detroit will take a step back without Ben Johnson (and Aaron Glenn)
3. Green Bay will stay about the same
4. The remaining NFC slate is top-heavy but manageable
5. The AFC opponents will be as challenging as they look on paper

A more thorough game-by-game breakdown can wait for another post after the official schedule release, but at first glance…

11-6.

Let me just say this: The over/under of 8.5 wins is comically insulting. I was glad to see 93% of the SB Nation agreed, and that 7% of Packers fans figured out how to vote.

Under KOC’s guidance, McCarthy is as advertised. Think of a season landing somewhere between Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix. After early growing pains in the secondary, Flores’s 3^rd year defense is a well-oiled machine in the final quarter of the season. Will Reichard memes flood the Internet and unite Americans from coast-to-coast. Three fewer wins is the result of a more daunting AFC slate and dates with Philadelphia and Washington. However, in the end it leaves a more talented Vikings team battle-tested and prepared to do real damage in the playoffs.

Poll

How many games will the 2025 Minnesota Vikings win?

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  12 or more wins (#1 seed possibility)

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  10 or 11 wins (playoffs)

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  9 wins (maybe sneak into playoffs)

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  6 to 8 wins (no playoffs)

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  Hey look, an iceberg! (5 or fewer wins)

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0 votes total

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