providential (adj) – coming or happening by good luck, especially unexpectedly
Miami came away with an opening week win that was never in doubt.
You know, there’s nothing quite like seeing the fans’ favorite players in postseason form right out of the gate at the start of the year: the punters.
Jake Bailey kicked it off so well that he might make me question my questioning of the Fins’ decision to re-sign him.
But there were some less magnificent starts to be had.
A slow start on offense eventually turned a corner
Players get fewer ‘full speed’ reps in the offseason than ever before and the impact of those diminished reps was evident.
Tua missed a touchdown pass to a wide open Tyreek Hill in the first quarter that is typically a freebie. He had some other uncharacteristically inaccurate passes before settling in as the game went on, ultimately finishing 23/37 (62%) with 338 yds, 1 TD, and 0 INT.
Jacksonville’s defense overmatched Miami’s blockers, both on the offensive line and on the perimeter, particularly on running plays, early on. PFF’s ratings had the O-line down as performing well overall, but it took them a bit to find their footing.
Miami’s rushing offense was lackluster, to be kind. Blocking was nearly nonexistent and runners looked indecisive as a result. The backs totaled 59 yards on 21 carries for a meager 2.8 YPC average. Jeff Wilson led the group with 5 carries for 26 yards, closing out the game when the Jags’ defense seemed to be getting gassed.
Thankfully, the offense’s penchant for big plays carried over from last season as they busted out a 63 yard pass play to Jaylen Waddle and an 80 yard touchdown to Tyreek Hill. That said, it’s hard to rely exclusively on explosiveness for 17 regular season game and beyond.
Overreactions abound after Week 1 every year, but the offense knows it has to find balance and consistency if they want to run deep into the postseason.
Playcalling has room for improvement
Bob Dylan famously asked “How many screens must a man see called before he can call something else?” The answer, my friend, is 16,281.
To be fair, most of the Parallel Plays ended up positive. There were situations, however, where they made little sense given the down and distance, general momentum, and/or fans’ unwillingness to be reminded of Adam Gase.
Mikey McMotorcyky (pretty sure that’s spelled right) did a good job sticking with the run game, especially late, despite its difficulties. 25 rushes against 37 passes is reasonable in today’s game. I think he would agree, though, that there’s still room for growth and he/we should expect to see it during his third year in the same role.
The calls still take too long to get in, leaving the offense with no time at the line for adjustments. And sometimes the choices kill hard earned momentum, most critically in this game when the Fins picked up 63 yards on one throw, only to follow it up with a three-act-play of -3, -3, and -14 yards, culminating in the most consistent play of the day: a punt (this one to the JAX 3 yard line).
On a sort of related note, the Dolphins need some more wide receiver depth, like ASAP. Malik Washington is injured, OBJ is injured, and I’ve been told O.J. McDuffie has retired. Hill and Waddle are arguably the league’s best one-two punch and a healthy Washington in the slot should be solid (not to mention OBJ softening some coverages down the line as well), but until those guys are back, the cupboards are pretty bare. It seemed like maybe the tight ends could pick up some of the slack, but so far Jonnu Smith looked lost and usually even-keeled Durham Smythe was dreadful.
Speaking of which:
Season opener jitters jumped around
Smith and Smythe (no relation) seemed to suffer most from season opening stress. Smith had a drop and lined up clearly offsides, while Smythe instituted the rarely used policy of slapping the ball away to ensure his jersey didn’t get any leather marks on it.
The rest of the group showed a little sluggishness too: holding penalties on Robert Jones, a missed field goal by Jason Sanders, and an absolute fire sale of timeouts by Coach McDaniel all feel like things that should shake themselves out as the games go on.
It helps to be at home in the loving environment of Hard Rock Stadium when getting the cobwebs out. I trust that they’ll get over that hump quickly and not really look back. Maybe on the first snap of the Super Bowl, but after that they’ll be fine.
The new defense didn’t gel at first, but finished strong
Anthony Weaver feels like a major upgrade at Defensive Coordinator, at least on paper, to me. His defense doesn’t appear to be built on the ‘bend, don’t break’ philosophy, which means the announcers won’t have s*** to say for the rest of the year when the opponent is on offense and that will be refreshing.
Sunday, however, the Dolphins’ D delayed their dominance until the 11th hour. With semi-injured Jalen Ramsey rotating in at corner, they were out of sorts at the start. The base pass rush didn’t generate a ton of pressure after Calais’ Campbell’s early onslaught and the middle of the defense (especially the linebackers), looked pretty pedestrian as the Jaguars got themeselves out of the shadow of their own goal line twice with two effortless runs up the middle.
Thankfully, like the offense, the defense picked it up as the game progressed. They had a fantastic second half, stifling the Jaguars offense entirely. David Long made himself known in the backfield, Weaver brought some blitzes to hassle Trevor Lawrence, and everything came together like a perfect puzzle.
By the way, Jaelan Phillips deserves all the credit in the world for getting back into NFL shape eight-ish months after Achilles surgery, but he’s got a noticeable limp, right? I’m not a doctor (I just play one on TV), but can we all, as a collective society, make sure he’s not going to do any long term damage? I have to believe the medical staff wouldn’t let him out there if there was any higher risk than normal, but man, it stresses me out.
Anyway.
Jevon Holland came up with a game changing play in the third quarter, punching the ball out from Travis Etienne as he was galloping to the goal line for what likely would have been a decisive score with the way momentum was trending at that point. That’s all well and good. It’s actually well and amazing. What it isn’t, though, is sustainable. We’ve watched a Miami defense live and die by turnovers before and it’s just too random of a stat to rely on.
Just like with the offense, the defense knows it has to find balance and consistency if they want to run deep into the postseason.
Miami needs to rise to meet expectations
You might think (you think) after reading this that it sounds like I’m a little down on the team or disappointed or even worried that the win was a glitch in the simulation that controls our existence and will send us spiraling down one of the endless available multiverses, ultimately tossing us, unfeeling, into an eternal abyss surrounded by nothing but Tom Bradys.
For nearly as long as my memory goes back (which is roughly 3.5 Earth days), the Fins have had, let’s call them, muted expectations. Fans were generally happy to see the team be competitive (sometimes), get a few draft picks, and stock up for that never ending rebuild.
This time it’s different and it seems clear to me that the team knows it. On one hand, that’s a great motivator. On the other, some people shrink under the pressure. The crowd at home got into it (and was actually audible on the broadcast) and the team eventually rose to the occasion. I mean, they won, after all. But to meet the current expectations of fans and coaches and contracts, they’re going to need to really dial it in and fast.
Buffalo’s coming to town in just a few days for Thursday Night Football and even though they looked subpar Week 1, there’s no avoiding Mr. January, even though it’s September.
Miami’s been to the playoffs twice in a row now. The big extensions have been handed out. The money’s all been spent. There’s no flying under the radar anymore.
So they best get to flying high.
Did the Fins’ win instill confidence in you? Concern? Chaos? Predict every game for the next 30 years in the comments below.
