Rams made correct call to ‘live and die’ by the arm of Matthew Stafford

The Rams made the right decision to commit to Matthew Stafford

Last week, the Los Angeles Rams made the decision to commit to their starting quarterback. While the agreement is more of a contract adjustment than an actual extension, the Rams decided that for the 2025 season, Matthew Stafford would be their starting quarterback.

That decision made the most sense. As much as the Rams roster might be ready for a younger quarterback, it’s also a roster that’s suited to win now. The quarterback that gives them the best chance to do that is Matthew Stafford.

Stafford proved that multiple times last season late in the year when the offense was fully healthy. From Weeks 8-14, Stafford’s EPA + CPOE composite ranked ninth in the NFL. His adjusted EPA per play ranked sixth.

Throughout his career, Stafford has been streaky. That was the case last year as well when the Rams were hurt before their bye week and then over the final three weeks. However, Stafford’s upside is still among the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He’ll deliver a performance like he did against the Buffalo Bills and then the divisional round against the Philadelphia Eagles. Cory Kinnan of Reception Perception recently charted Stafford’s 2024 season and said,

“Stafford had a rock-solid season…But the question for the 37-year-old QB is, do the numbers match the tape when looking under the hood?”

Reception Perception

The simple answer is yes. Stafford’s season was good, not great. When the Rams have been able to remain healthy and provide a solid supporting cast for Stafford, he’s shown moments of being elite. He still has the ability to hit all of the throws and despite being 37, there isn’t any indication that the arm talent or arm strength is dwindling.

That’s a reason why it makes sense for the Rams to continue to take Stafford year-by-year. The last thing they want to do is get stuck in a Kirk Cousins situation with the Atlanta Falcons. Last offseason, the Falcons signed Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract. Cousins’ arm didn’t look good down the stretch and now they have to consider eating $65 million in dead money.

If the Rams can continue to build the offense around Stafford and provide him with weapons that can take advantage of his arm, it makes sense to continue along this path. Outside of injuries, a lot of the reason why the Rams offense struggled in parts last year was because of the lack of explosiveness. Puka Nacua was the only wide receiver capable of consistently making plays downfield. A focus this offseason will be for the Rams to add explosive play-makers for Stafford and to complement Nacua. As Kinnan wrote,

“Stafford is still lethal when he can rip the football down the field as exhibited in his 66.67% success rate on deep passes this year. Of the quarterbacks we’ve charted, only the MVP finalists of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson dwarfed his success on go balls.”

Reception Perception

Stafford’s success rate on deep balls is a big reason why the Rams need to find a legitimate deep threat this offseason at the “x” receiver spot. They need another player opposite Nacua that can win down the field and along the sideline.

That’s not to say that Stafford is perfect. At his best, he can out-throw any of those quarterbacks, but Stafford has at times lacked the consistency or too often looked for the big play. Said Kinnan,

“Stafford plays with a level of ego that makes him believe there is not a window too small for him to throw the football into…At times he seems almost arrogant with these tight window throws, trusting his arm and pass catcher to make plays…You beat Matthew Stafford by making him play small ball…He wants to rip the football, and when he cannot, there is a slight lag in success. Stafford had his faults in 2024 as NFL teams refused to sit in single high and began to clamp down on shots down the field. His success rate against zone coverage tells the story of a quarterback who gets frustrated when he has to come off of the play he wants to make. Stafford sits with a similar success rate against zone as pending free agent Darnold. Stafford carries a low success rate when throwing under 10 yards at below 80%. This is jarringly low compared to the other quarterbacks in the top 50th percentile.”

With that said, it’s hard to find a quarterback in that second-tier behind Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson much better than Stafford. His willingness and ability to make those types of throws are why the Rams traded for him. Even when a play isn’t there to be made, Stafford finds a way to make it happen. His ability to create outside of structure and make the throws when the defense has the perfect coverage is why McVay values him as the quarterback in his offense.

Kinnan noted that aspect perfectly in his conclusion by saying,

“That’s why despite his age and some of his shortcomings as a quarterback, the Rams made the correct call to continue to live and die by the arm of Stafford.”

The Rams have a young roster they’re ready to build around, but they are also in a position to win now. With the way that they have drafted, players such as Jared Verse, Braden Fiske, Kobie Turner, and Puka Nacua remain on rookie contracts. In the sense of the anti-rookie quarterback contract, the Rams need to take advantage of those very good players still being on rookie deals. Stafford remains the best quarterback to accomplish that.