• Shemar Stewart‘s draft stock will rise: His ability to defend the run in addition to elite physical and athletic traits, his standout performance at Senior Bowl practices and a big workout on Thursday could very well put him into the top-10 pick conversation.

• A new first-round quarterback will appear: Jaxson Dart checks all the rest of the boxes. At Mississippi, he was listed at 6-foot-2 and 225 pounds, well within NFL standards. His arm is plenty strong enough, and he displays the prerequisite athleticism. While the baselines work in his favor, his efficiency will make him a first-rounder in April.

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Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes

The NFL circus has descended upon Indianapolis as the league’s annual scouting combine has begun! While the mock drafts have already been circulating for some time (yours truly, guilty as charged), this is when the media gets its first real deep dive into the draft, both in terms of team sources and with the class as a collective whole.

The medical checks will always be at the forefront of the week, but team meetings and on-field workouts will also shape the direction of the class. Expect to see opinions on many of this year’s prospects change drastically as the week unfolds and more information becomes public. 

With that in mind, let’s look into the crystal ball and try to make some predictions on a few of the key takeaways that will surface by the end of the week. After taking some extended deep dives into the film archives and PFF’s advanced data for the class, here are three bold predictions I’m ready to make in advance of the start of Thursday’s on-field workouts.

Shemar Stewart will “elevate” himself to top 10 status

Stewart’s pass-rushing stats at Texas A&M aren’t particularly impressive. He maxed out at two sacks in each of his three seasons and in 2024, his win rate was just 11.8%. His 67.2 pass-rush grade in 2024 ranks a lowly 82nd among all draft-eligible edges in the class. 

However, his raw pass rush stats only tell part of his story. PFF also accounts for “true pass sets,” which eliminates screens, play-action passes and RPOs, or in other words, plays where pressure is either not recorded or not expected. Accounting for these plays, Stewart’s pass-rush win rate jumps all the way up to 21.9%, much more in line with the rest of the class.

To add further context, Nic Scourton (Stewart’s teammate and fellow edge rusher at Texas A&M, also a highly regarded 2024 prospect) highlighted during his combine media interview the complexity of A&M’s defense, which did not simply ask its edge rushers to get upfield after the quarterback on every rush.

His play versus the run needs little extra context, as he played at an elite level in 2024. His 88.2 run-defense grade ranked fourth among all 2025 edge prospects. He graded positively on 23.8% of all run plays, which ranked him second.

When you turn on the film, his size and athleticism absolutely pop. Weighing in at 6-foot-5 and 281 pounds at the Senior Bowl, he is clearly every bit of that, except his agility and speed are similar to someone 30 pounds lighter. He uses his length and natural strength to keep blockers from locking on and can string together a variety of moves to defeat linemen at the line of scrimmage. His willingness and ability to chase down plays from behind is reminiscent of Calais Campbell, who was selected by the Arizona Cardinals in the second round of the 2008 draft and continues to enjoy a highly productive career. 

During senior bowl practices, he was a dominant force when rushing the passer, earning a 93.6 grade. While the combine is not the venue for him to put on display his dominant strength at the point of attack, his athleticism will certainly be on display. Look for him to put on a performance reminiscent of Travon Walker. Like Stewart, Walker lacked impressive college production but was able to ride the wave he created at his combine (4.51-second 40-yard dash, 35.5-inch vertical, 6.89-second three-cone) all the way to the first overall pick of the 2022 draft.

Yes, Walker is a cautionary tale, as his NFL production to date has yet to meet the level expected of a No. 1 overall pick. And maybe that alone will be enough to prevent Stewart from being selected first overall this year by the Tennessee Titans. This being said, Stewart looks like a much more well-rounded prospect due to already being able to translate his skill set to production against the run. Put this together with his standout performance at Senior Bowl practices and a big workout on Thursday, and Stewart could very well find himself being talked about as a clear top-10 pick.

Jaxson Dart will be considered a first-round lock

This one is a much quicker sell. Part of it is supply and demand. There are currently two consensus first-round quarterbacks in Miami’s Cameron Ward and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, but there aren’t just two teams without a franchise signal caller. The Tennessee Titans need one. The Cleveland Browns need one. The New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders, New York Jets, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers all need one. One of these teams will likely sign Sam Darnold next month, and another might push the question down the road another year by signing Russell Wilson or Justin Fields, but that will still leave plenty of teams without a real long-term answer.

Enter Jaxson Dart. Does he come from a system that has him prepared for the NFL game? No, but how many actually do? Look at last year’s class – of the six taken in the first round, only J.J. McCarthy had significant experience working under center, and I’m not sure any of them worked through a natural route progression on a consistent basis while in college. 

College system aside, Dart checks all the rest of the boxes. At Mississippi, he was listed at 6-foot-2 and 225 pounds, well within NFL standards. His arm is plenty strong enough, and he displays the prerequisite athleticism. While the baselines work in his favor, his efficiency will make him a first-rounder in April.

His 94.4 grade on intermediate throws (10-19 yards) ranked first in the 2024 draft class, as did his 133.8 NFL passer rating. His 73.0% adjusted completion rate in that range ranks second, ahead of both Ward and Sanders. On deep passes (20-plus yards) he led the class in yards (1517). His 17.2 yards per attempt ranked third (again, ahead of both Ward and Sanders), and his 25 big-time throws ranked fourth.

The ability to throw accurately on intermediate and deep throws separates franchise QBs from the rest, and Dart lives up to his name when put to the test. Like McCarthy last year, the league already knows Dart is locked into the first round, and the media will start to catch onto that reality while at the combine.

Will Campbell will be one of the most heavily debated prospects in Indy

Take the next 90 seconds to enjoy this clip of Campbell talking about his preparation process and strategy for blocking Texas A&M pass rusher Cashius Howell, whose 91.4 pass-rush grade in 2024 ranks first among all returning Power-Four edge defenders.

This is exactly the kind of conversation he’ll have with teams he meets in Indianapolis this week, and this is the exact kind of answer every offensive line coach dreams of. It’s clear Campbell lives for his craft, and has the kind of self-motivation and attention to detail needed to succeed at the highest level. However, this is not the most critical part of this week’s process for him.

Beyond the obvious issue of medical (which is obviously No. 1 for every single prospect), the dreaded arm length measurement could decide not just how high Campbell is selected but also what position he plays in the NFL. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler lays out the NFL’s infamous concerns with arm length here, even highlighting how Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski (now with the Titans) was immediately relegated to offensive guard in 2023 due to his 32 ¼-inch arm length.

If he meets the 33-inch threshold, then I agree – he’s likely the pick at No. 4 for the New England Patriots. However, if he falls below… All bets are off. The Chicago Bears could consider him at pick No. 10, and maybe they still consider him a tackle (they do have a significant need for interior help). However, are they really prepared to add another top-10 pick to their offensive line that either isn’t a left tackle or at the very least doesn’t fit the standard definition of a left tackle? If not the Bears, who then? Should arm length really matter all this much?

The reality is when I watch Campbell’s film, yes, arm length is definitely a concern for him. He may have only allowed two sacks in 2024, but he also surrendered 18 total pressures while also recording nine other losses in pass protection that did not result in recorded pressures (usually due to the quarterback’s quick time to throw). 

Coincidentally, the Texas A&M game was arguably his worst of the season, as he surrendered five total pressures and two other losses, the bulk of them coming against the aforementioned Stewart, who repeatedly used his length and strength against Campbell to walk him back into the quarterback (his other losses came against Nic Scourton). 

Additionally, his run-blocking grade for the season was just 69.7, just barely above average. Teams, regardless of where they stand on the arm-length debate, have to be concerned about this. 

There’s also a chance arm length won’t sink Campbell relative to the “competition” of this year’s draft class. Ohio State’s Josh Simmons is for my money the clear top left tackle prospect this year, but he tore his ACL on October 12, which puts his availability for at the very least the start of the season in serious doubt. Texas’s Kelvin Banks is next on the PFF big board, but his own size concerns could relegate him to guard. Does this open the door for someone like Missouri’s Armand Membou to enter the top-10 discussion? I have a lot of questions revolving around Will Campbell and this year’s offense tackle class as a whole, and there is a real chance the results of this week’s testing and workouts answer absolutely none of them.