Eagles Film Review: Milton Williams is forcing a tough decision

If only the salary cap wasn’t an issue …

It’s the NFL offseason, so it’s time to get into the Eagles’ upcoming free agents before we get into draft season. I’ll give my general thoughts and some clips to back them up, then conclude with my overall thoughts on the player and whether he should be re-signed. This time, I will look at Milton Williams. All stats in this one are Pro Football Focus and from the regular season only.

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Previously: Zack Baun

Milton Williams

Stats

I expected to see an excellent pass rusher, but the pass rushing numbers are outstanding. Ranking 2nd in pass rushing productivity and 4th in pass rushing win % is impressive. The run defense numbers aren’t great, but we will get into that later. The snaps played number is interesting to consider, too.

Overall

Milton William’s strength is winning one-on-one matchups and getting after the quarterback. I’m starting the obvious here, but he’s a very good interior pass rusher. This trait is going to get him paid. He’s always been a good pass rusher since he entered the league and teams will also spend big on individuals who can win in pass rushing situations.

He doesn’t just win his one-on-one matchups when rushing the quarterback. I know the numbers above point to a poor run defender, but I don’t see a huge weakness against the run in William’s game. He isn’t just a 3rd down pass rushing specialist. He can win on early downs, too. He’s a 3-down defensive lineman.

One of Milton Williams’ biggest strengths is his versatility. He is a 3-technique, but he can line up further out wide and even take some reps as an EDGE defender if needed. This versatility benefited the Eagles this season as the Eagles’ defensive line was unpredictable and could shift at the last minute. Williams is probably the 2nd most versatile defensive lineman on the Eagles’ roster right now, and he will be missed if he is not on the roster next season.

Right, this is a very good play by Milton Williams. It’s not his fault that he plays next to Jalen Carter, but you must consider it when evaluating Carter. Carter is the Eagles’ best defensive player. He’s frequently commanding double teams, and offensive lines often shift towards his side. This allows Milton Williams to get a lot of one-on-one matchups. If another team pays Milton Williams like a top defensive lineman, he won’t get this many one-on-one matchups next year! He’s never been the top guy on a defensive line, and it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to that.

Finally, the PFF numbers at the top show a pretty poor run defender. I’m not sure I agree with that. However, I think good offensive guards can move him, and he particularly struggles against double teams. He has the luxury of playing next to Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis, both of whom take a lot of double teams away from Williams. I think he’s better on 3rd down than he is on early downs, and the area of his game he still needs to develop is his anchor in the run game. He’s better when he can get up the field quickly and penetrate gaps against the run than when asked to anchor.

Re-sign?

I think this one is tough. Obviously, I would love Milton Williams to be back with the Eagles next year. He’s an excellent football player. The Eagles will be better with him on the roster. However, Williams is coming off his rookie contract and doesn’t turn 26 until after the start of free agency. He played extremely well in the Super Bowl and is hitting the market at the perfect time. He is going to get paid. A lot.

I think he could get around $20m a year but it’s hard to tell, considering the recent news that the salary cap is rising, who knows what he could get on the open market. I wouldn’t be shocked if there is a team that falls in love with his ability to rush the quarterback. The franchise tag would be $23.4 million, which is too much for the Eagles to consider.

I think the Eagles can’t lose Zack Baun and Milton Williams in the same offseason. They need to keep one of the two. I made my view pretty clear in my previous article, but if you didn’t read it…

I’m not a cap guy. I’m a film guy. It’s a good thing I’m not Howie Roseman because I would pay Baun whatever he wants. I am not usually that guy who shouts ‘pay the man’ because I understand it is not that simple. I will just say this. Losing Baun would be a monumental failure for this organization. I would have signed him to an extension in the first half of the season. He should not be allowed to walk out the door.

I would pick Baun over Williams. I’m not sure the Eagles can extend both whilst also considering the future paydays of players such as Jalen Carter, who must be retained. I think Zack Baun is a more important player for this Eagles’ defense than Williams is.

One of the benefits of having an elite defensive player is that it makes life easier for others. The Eagles should not need to pay another defensive lineman huge money when they have Jalen Carter on the roster. The Eagles already have Moro Ojomo (who is progressing exceptionally well), who could step up next year and take some more snaps if Williams does leave. I expect the Eagles to be active in free agency or the draft if Williams leaves, too.

Despite this, Williams has never played more than 501 snaps in a single season, so paying him to be a ‘star’ may be risky. Maybe this means he gets less on the open market than expected, and the Eagles can bring him back without breaking the bank. But I think this is wishful thinking. I bet he gets paid a lot. His talent is obvious.

If money were not an issue, I would re-sign Milton Williams. But I would prioritize bringing back Zack Baun. If Baun does not return, I would be OK with the Eagles giving Williams a big contract. I don’t want them to lose both.

Thank you for reading! I’d love to hear your thoughts, so feel free to comment below and ask any questions. If you enjoyed this piece, you can find more of my work and podcast here.