There are reasons to think it could happen
Optimism is a scarce commodity around the New York Giants’ fan base these days. A 9-25 record over two seasons, a 10-game losing streak in 2024, planes begging for change flying over MetLife Stadium and a head coach and GM likely on the hot seat will do that.
But, things can change quickly in the NFL. Look at the Washington Commanders, who went from 4-13 in 2023 to 12-5 and the NFC Conference Championship Game in 2024.
Besides, this is the offseason. It should be a time for hope. A time for optimism that, with some good decisions over the next few months, 2025 will be better.
With that in mind, I received a question recently for the Big Blue View Mailbag that I thought deserved more than a brief ‘Mailbag’ response. Here it is:
David Silver asks: Yes, it is probably true that we have so many talent weaknesses that we will be back here next year with a top 5 pick. But after watching the Super Bowl I remind myself, so I can say it to others, the Cowboys have not won a Super Bowl since 1996, and the Eagles have won 2 Super Bowls in their history, while the Giants have won 4. So in the interest of optimism, what do you think would need to happen for the Giants to make the playoffs and actually contend next year?
David wants reasons for optimism. I’m sure he isn’t the only Giants fan looking for them. So, let’s try to provide some.
As a reminder, I did a ‘Fixing the Giants’ series of posts earlier in the offseason addressing potential solutions at areas of need. Here are those stories:
- Fixing the Giants, Part 1: Cap space, draft picks, needs, free agents
- Fixing the Giants, Part 2: Defensive line has to become a priority
- Fixing the Giants, Part 3: How to upgrade the defensive backfield
- Fixing the Giants, Part 4: Offensive line needs young talent, better depth
- Fixing the Giants: Which door should New York open to find a quarterback?
Now, let’s get to reasons for optimism about the 2025 season for the Giants.
The right QB can be transformative
Again, I have to reference the Commanders. There are a lot of reasons for Washington’s resurgence, but none bigger than the fact that Washington was able to draft Jayden Daniels No. 2 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. And, no, I can’t resist reminding that he is a player Brian Daboll would have loved to put into a Giants uniform but GM Joe Schoen had no chance of pulling off a trade to make that happen.
Daniels was the best of the six rookie quarterbacks taken in Round 1 last spring, and earned AP Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.
Bo Nix, drafted 12th overall, was also transformative for the Denver Broncos. He was a big part of the reason the Broncos went from 8-9 in 2023 to 10-7 and reaching the playoffs in 2024. And, yes, you can question whether or not the Giants should have drafted Nix at No. 6 instead of Malik Nabers. At the time, though, I don’t think anyone thought that was a great idea.
Want another example? How about the 2024 Miami Dolphins? They were 6-5 with Tua Tagovailoa, 2-4 without him.
Can the Giants find that transformative quarterback? They are certainly going to try.
You have heard all the names. Matthew Stafford via trade. Maybe Derek Carr. Sam Darnold, Russell Wilson, Justin Fields or someone else in free agency. Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders or Jaxson Dart in the draft.
Strike gold with whoever the Giants bring in and that goes a long way toward changing their fortunes.
No ‘Hail Mary’s,’ but an attacking offseason
At his season-ending press conference, Schoen promised that “There will be no Hail Mary’s” that compromise the future in a blatant effort at self-preservation for himself and Daboll.
That, though, doesn’t mean the Giants won’t be aggressive — maybe ultra-aggressive — this offseason. They should be. And need to be. The Philadelphia Eagles aren’t going anywhere for a while. The Commanders are for real. The Cowboys? Well, they are always talented.
The Giants are in the chase position, and they need to make up ground. Quickly.
I do not expect Schoen to mortgage future drafts for the present, but …
- If he can acquire Matthew Stafford to play quarterback for the next couple of years for second-round picks in 2025 and 2026 — as suggested by CBS Sports — I believe Schoen would be willing to do that. And I would support it.
- If they can’t get Stafford and are enamored enough with either Cam Ward of Miami or Shedeur Sanders of Colorado, I think Schoen would use draft assets to move up to No. 1 or No. 2 to get the guy who could be the team’s long-term quarterback answer.
I do not expect Schoen to throw money around like a drunken guy at a topless bar, but he has talked about the Giants being in good financial shape entering the offseason. The Giants have an estimated $43 million to spend under a projected $272.5 million 2025 salary cap, 13th-most in the league.
I fully expect Schoen to be aggressive in using that money to improve the roster. If there are going to be true splash signings, I would guess they might come at cornerback and the defensive line.
I am hopeful that Schoen will begin to follow the teachings of the Howie Roseman School of Cap Management. Roseman, GM of the Super Bowl champion Eagles, was out front in the use of void years to push money into the future and lower current cap costs. He uses that philosophy more, and better than anyone.
The Eagles have a league-high $390.4 million cap dollars assigned to void years. Schoen’s Giants are one of only two teams that don’t have a single contract that includes any void years.
I understood why Schoen did that in his first couple of offseasons as he tried to clean up Dave Gettleman’s cap disaster. Now? It’s time to play the game and not leave any tools in the tool belt when it comes to improving the roster.
A couple of year ago, Roseman explained why he leans so heavily into void years. It’s an interest-free loan.
“It’s no different than when you’re trying to buy a house. If you have the opportunity to buy a house and put all the cash down, or the interest rates are really good and you’re going to pay it over time, why wouldn’t you use that money now and understand that as it goes forward, you’re going to be able to do that?”
Roseman is pushing money out into the future when the dollars will be cheaper. The expected cap for this year is $272.5 million. By 2029, when Jalen Hurts’ $98 million in void year option bonuses come due, the cap might be $350 million, making the $98 million hit easier to swallow.
Schoen wants to build for the long term, which is admirable — and correct. But, if the Giants are going to close the gap on the teams in front of them they need to utilize every avenue. Void years, which lower costs now and allow you to add more players in the present, have become a necessary evil.
I will be surprised if Schoen and the Giants don’t begin to embrace them.
The young core
Schoen has been widely lauded for his 2024 draft class. It did not include a quarterback, but it did include fantastic wide receiver Malik Nabers. It did not include help for the offensive and defensive lines, which remains a quibble I have with the class, but each player drafted proved to be a quality one.
Cornerback Dru Phillips, safety Tyler Nubin, running back Tyrone Tracy and tight end Theo Johnson all look like starting-caliber players. Darius Muasau looks like a solid backup linebacker/special teamer.
It’s rare that a GM lands five good starters in one draft class. Schoen needs another good class, but I’m not sure it’s fair to expect that kind of hit rate again.
As good as they are, though, young players make mistakes. Nabers led the league in illegal shift penalties. Tracy had a critical overtime fumble that led to a loss to the Carolina Panthers.
You know what else young players do? They get better with experience.
Giants’ rookies played 4,702 snaps on offense or defense in 2024. The only team with more snaps played by rookies last season was the Los Angeles Rams with 5,456.
It is often said that NFL players generally take their biggest leaps in terms of improvement from their first to second seasons in the NFL. If that is the case for most of the Giants’ 2024 rookie class, it should be fun to watch.
Will the schedule really be that hard?
If you go by 2024 opponents’ winning percentages, the Giants have the toughest schedule in the NFL for the upcoming season. Is it really that overwhelming, though?
Here are the Giants home and away opponents:
Home
- Dallas Cowboys
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Washington Commanders
- Green Bay Packers
- Minnesota Vikings
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Los Angeles Chargers
- San Francisco 49ers
Away
- Chicago Bears
- Dallas Cowboys
- Denver Broncos
- Detroit Lions
- Las Vegas Raiders
- New England Patriots
- New Orleans Saints
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Washington Commanders
I hate going through a schedule this far in advance and pegging certain games as ‘wins’ or ‘losses’. I won’t do that here. I think that is silly because we don’t know for sure what those teams will look like when they face the Giants, or what the Giants will look like. I can, though, make a case that while it won’t be easy there are a lot of winnable games on that schedule.
It is not insurmountable.
One-score games
The bit about the schedule brings me to my next point — one-score games. The NFL is a league of one-score games, and success/failure in those games can determine the success/failure of a season. It can also fluctuate wildly from year to year.
The 15-2 Kansas City Chiefs went an astounding 11-0 in one-score games in 2024.
In their 2022 playoff season, the Giants went 8-4 in regular season one-score games, tied the Commanders and won a one-score playoff game over the Minnesota Vikings.
In 2024?
The Giants went 1-8 in one-score games, and lost to the Cincinnati Bengals by 10 points thanks to a late Cincinnati touchdown. That is one victory in 10 games that were winnable well into the fourth quarter.
Per Pro Football Network, that 1-8 mark is the seventh-worst by any team since 2010. The six teams worse than the Giants in that time period won a combined 44.8% of their one-score games in the following season.
Considering roughly 10 one-score games in any season, that could be a swing of four or five victories for the Giants. Quarterback play, as we know, was a contributing factor in several of those losses.
Better quarterback play, added experience from an exciting young core, a couple of improvements at other key spots on the roster and perhaps a fortuitous bounce or two should help the Giants do better in those close games in 2025.
