Super Bowl LIX: Best prop bets for Eagles vs. Chiefs

Welcome to the betting angle, Super Bowl edition! Each week during the season, I gave out my three favorite wagers for that week’s New York Giants game. Well, the Giants didn’t quite make it to the big game this season, so we can’t wager on them. But have no fear! The Super Bowl offers a Vegas-sized buffet of wagering options, from very plain vanilla bets on the point spread, money line, or game total, to the totally ludicrous, like which color Gatorade will be spilled on the winning coach. There’s something for everyone.

The Super Bowl garners action like no other event. It doesn’t matter which teams are playing. As more and more states allow the online wagering companies to take bets from their citizens, the handle grows. According to the American Gaming Association, a record $1.25 billion was wagered on Super Bowl LVIII last year, and they’re estimating that number to be around $1.4 billion for Super Bowl LIX, if not more. As recently as 2020, the total handle was $300 million. What we are witnessing is explosive growth. Throw in all the box pools and bets between friends and who knows what the real total is.

There are pages and pages of wagers offered on the major gambling sites for Sunday’s big game, which will be held in New Orleans for the 11^th time. Usually, I give out three “best bets” per week, but where’s the fun in that when hundreds of them are on offer? I’ll use FanDuel as my basis for this article, and I won’t recommend anything with shorter odds than -135. To quote me, where’s the fun in that? I’m not going to touch the silly wagers (things like the coin flip, the length of the national anthem, how many times they show a certain pop star, bets about the halftime show and commercials, who the MVP mentions first in his post-game interview, etc.). I’m also not recommending any of the semi-silly ones like over-under on the uniform number of the first player to score a TD. If you like betting on that stuff, be my guest. I get it, it’s fun. I think you can get something like 11:1 on a parlay of Chiefs win + Travis Kelce proposing to Taylor Swift at the end of the game. For real. That’s a fade for me, but you do you.

As for the game itself, it’s a rematch from two years ago (KC 38, PHI 35), so we’ve got some recent history to go on. The line opened at KC -1.5, with a total of 48.5, and those numbers haven’t budged. I won’t go into too much analysis about the game itself, but I’ll say this: I think the Eagles have more talent on both sides of the ball and are deeper, but the line reflects the Mahomes (and Reid/Spagnuolo) factor, and the air of inevitability that this Kansas City team has. They’ve set an NFL record by winning 17 straight one-score games, and they’re better at winning close games than any team I’ve ever seen. Patrick Mahomes is an astounding 17-3 in the playoffs. That’s an 85% winning percentage, against what are by definition the league’s best teams. He’s in his fifth Super Bowl, and he’s not yet 30. He’s the first QB to do that, and my guess is we’ll never see it again.

So all of that is why KC is favored in this game against a more talented team as they chase the three-peat. The spread bets are a stay-away for me. I can’t pick against the Eagles because I think they’re the better team, and I can’t pick against Mahomes because he’s Mahomes and it’s the playoffs. If I were to bet the Eagles, I’d do it on the Moneyline (+102) rather than giving the juice (-115) while getting the point and a half. That seems like better value to me.

OK, let’s get to some wagers! All lines are from Fanduel, as of Wednesday, Feb. 5, at 9 p.m.

Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

1. Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (-115). This line feels a little too generous. Since he became the Eagles’ starter in 2021, Hurts has 55 rushing TDs in 66 starts. In the playoffs, he has nine rushing TDs in eight games, including three last week. If the Eagles have a snap inside the 2-yard line, Hurts is scoring, and he could get a rushing TD from further out than that. This is my single favorite wager of the weekend.

2. Patrick Mahomes OVER 5.5 rushing attempts (-102). As the games get bigger, Mahomes runs more. It’s how it goes with him. If KC is winning and there are kneel-downs, you’ve got a much better chance of this bet going over. Mahomes has 29 carries across his four Super Bowl appearances, and against the Eagles’ active pass rush, I can see him being forced to take off more. I like getting this prop at almost even money.

3. Jalen Hurts UNDER 211.5 passing yards (-110). Hurts props are all over this column, and I feel like he might be the most important player in this game. This number feels a bit high to me, against this defense. Hurts went over this number against the Commanders in the NFC title game, but threw for less than 135 yards in both the Wild Card and Divisional rounds.

4. Saquon Barkley UNDER 109.5 rushing yards (-110). This under frightens me a little, as Barkley has terrorized defenses all season and averages more than this total per game. More Sunday scaries: This Super Bowl is being played on his 28^th birthday. Can’t you see Saquon going for 225 yards and multiple TDs and walking away with the Super Bowl MVP on his special day, as the Eagles romp? Sure you can, and so can I, and in his last two games he has three runs of 60-plus yards. So why do I like the under? Well, KC hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher all season, and they also haven’t allowed one in their last 18 playoff games. A buck-ten in a Super Bowl is a lot, even for Barkley. If he gets dinged up or the Eagles fall behind, the over will be tough.

5. Dallas Goedert OVER 50.5 receiving yards (-110). Goedert has come on during the playoffs (15 catches for 183 yards and a score across three games), and I have a feeling he’ll be a big part of Philadelphia’s game plan on Sunday. The Chiefs’ defense is tough against the run and has good numbers against wide receivers, but they allowed the fourth most catches and the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends during the regular season. It’s the one position they defend poorly.

6. Both teams to convert a fourth down (-124). Even the most casual NFL fan knows that teams are going for it on fourth down more than ever before. There’s no tomorrow for either team, so don’t expect Andy Reid or Nick Sirianni to play it conservative. The Eagles have an unstoppable play for fourth-and-short and converted fourth downs at 73.3% this season (third best in the NFL). The Chiefs were right behind them in those rankings, at 70%.

7. Xavier Worthy OVER 5.5 rushing yards (-122). For the second straight year, a rookie receiver has emerged for the Chiefs down the stretch and into the playoffs. Worthy’s usage is way up over the last month or so, and he has gone over this rushing total in four of the last five games. I expect Reid to scheme up a few runs for the speedster. The juice isn’t great, but the line is tantalizingly low.

8. Both teams to make a 33+ yard FG (-104). Sure, why not? The game is being played in a dome, and there should be plenty of points. Jake Elliott was shaky in the Divisional round against the Rams, but has made plenty of big kicks, and Harrison Butker is money.

Photo by Brooke Sutton/Getty Images

OK, enough with the safer bets. Want a few longer shots? Here are some wagers I like at +150 or better:

1. Xavier Worthy Anytime TD (+150). Worthy scored in the AFC Championship game, his ninth TD of the season. He’s also scored in three of his last four games played. Worthy has emerged as the Chiefs’ top wide receiver over the last month or so, and is also a threat to score on a rush. The odds feel fair on this one.

2. Eagles to have more INTs than KC (+210). Neither defense had a pick in the Super Bowl two years ago, and neither QB has thrown one in these playoffs. So this is a bit of a longshot as both QBs are pretty careful with the ball, and you lose this wager on a tie. Hurts has been criticized plenty as a passer, but one thing he does do is protect the football. He’s only thrown five picks in 18 games played this season. Mahomes has 11 in 19 games. On the flip side, both teams had 13 picks during the regular season. I have a little more faith in Philadelphia’s secondary coming up with a big play.

3. A.J. Brown to have longest reception in the game (+330). Just a hunch here. I can see Brown making one big play.

4. Jalen Hurts to score 2+ TDs (+550). See above. He scored three last week, and this seems like decent odds considering that all you need is two plays from the one-yard line to cash at better than 5:1.

5. Eagles win first half/Chiefs win game (+700). The Chiefs have won back-to-back Super Bowls, and they trailed by a touchdown at halftime last year and by 10 points at halftime against these same Eagles two years ago. They’re built to win close games, and to come back. They’ve been here before and won’t panic if they fall behind. This bet isn’t likely to hit, but at +700, I’m in.

Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images

I’m going to stop here. There are probably 10 more wagers that I like, but this is more than enough. Enjoy the game, and the food and the drink, and good luck with your Super Bowl wagers!