Approaching free agency vs. the draft

Depending on whom you listen to, the New York Giants are either only a few players away from contending or at the start of a complete rebuild. The truth is probably somewhere in between, but no one knows right now. You can credibly disagree with me if at this time in 2022 you predicted that the Giants would get to the Divisional Round of the playoffs, or if you predicted at this time in 2024 that Washington would reach the NFC Championship Game.

Whatever any of us thinks, the Giants need to improve at a number of positions, through a mixture of free agent signings, draft picks, and maybe an occasional trade. Trades are the least common and least predictable routes to roster improvement, so let’s restrict the discussion to the draft and free agency. What positions should the Giants target in each one?

Let’s assume that the Giants’ five biggest needs are, in decreasing order of importance, quarterback, cornerback, defensive tackle, edge defender, and safety. That doesn’t mean that they couldn’t use depth at the other positions, only that these are the five positions they are likely to spend the most capital (financial or draft) on in the next three months because one or more of the existing starters is inadequate. For the most part I won’t discuss specific names because it’s not yet clear who will and will not reach free agency.

What does this year’s NFL Draft look like?

The good news is that overall, the Giants have the seventh highest draft capital of all NFL teams, as estimated by Tankathon:

The Giants only rank seventh despite picking third because a few teams that draft lower have accumulated more picks. The chart above uses an outdated draft pick value formula as its basis, but the more up-to-date Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart also ranks the Giants seventh in draft power.

The bad news is that depending on which position you need to fill, this draft may or may not be well suited to your needs. I looked at four big boards for the coming draft, from the NFL Mock Draft Database, Pro Football Network, Pro Football Focus, and Dane Brugler of The Athletic, and asked how many players at each position are ranked in the top 32, 64, and 96, i.e., loosely Round 1, 2, and 3 values (Brugler thus far has only released a top 50 ranking which is several months old, so his only goes part of the way through Round 2). The four independent sources taken together (the “Sum” column, in some sense a consensus view) provide some general sense of where the pickings will be slim and plentiful on Days 1 and 2 of the draft:

(So, e.g., in the chart above the NFL Mock Draft Database has three quarterbacks in their top 32, two more ranked in the 33-64 range, and two more in their 65-96 rankings.) If you’re looking for an edge defender, as I would argue the Giants should be, you’re in luck in this draft (10-12 draft-worthy candidates in Rounds 1 and 2, and everyone agrees). On the other hand, if you’re trying to find an interior offensive lineman, the cupboard is relatively bare of players worthy of being taken that high. That doesn’t mean good value can’t be had on Day 3 for guards and centers, only that few elite prospects exist. Wide receivers and offensive tackles are also fairly abundant, while defensive tackles and cornerbacks are neither plentiful nor sparse. Quarterback? This draft is not teeming with high-level prospects.

For this article let’s forget about the multitude of back-of-the-roster free agents the Giants will need to make decisions on, both those who were Giants in 2024 and those who played elsewhere. The focus here is on starters and key depth players.

How to approach free agency

According to Over The Cap, the Giants have about $32M of effective cap space, i.e., cap that will be left after signing at least 51 players and their draft class, barring trades. That’s middle of the pack in the NFL. Still you can do pretty well if you

• Target less valued positions in free agency if possible and save the high-value positions for the draft. That means sizing up the pickings in the draft at a given position before prospect visits have been completed. I say “if possible” because free agents aren’t items on a grocery shelf. Some don’t want to play for the Giants or demand too much to be good value.
• Avoid the premium free agents at any position if possible and shop mostly in the second tier of available players.
• Fill every major hole in free agency with an acceptable starter before the draft. The Giants did not do that last year at CB2 and IDL2. Then they got shut out of the boundary cornerback run early in the second round of the draft, they never did draft a defensive tackle, and offenses moved up and down the field on them, especially after Dexter Lawrence was injured.
• Don’t shy away from a modest amount of void year costs, as we discussed last week, to accomplish the goal in the previous bullet. Two of your division rivals have learned to stop worrying and love the void – coincidentally, they played for the NFC Championship last Sunday. You don’t have to go hog wild like Howie Roseman – Adam Peters did just fine with $18.6M of void year costs.

As an example, the small pool of elite IOL prospects in the coming draft, according to the chart above, suggests that if the Giants are going to add to their existing room, free agency is the way to do it. The Giants did that last year with fairly good results, signing Jon Runyan Jr. to a three-year contract with $10M average annual value (AAV) and $17M guaranteed, and then signing Greg Van Roten to a one-year, $3M contract. Neither Runyan nor Van Roten are Pro Bowl-caliber, but they were quietly effective compared to the dumpster fire that was the 2023 Giants IOL.

Compare what the Giants did to how Carolina operated. The Panthers also beefed up their IOL, signing free agent Robert Hunt to a five-year contract with $20M AAV and $44M guaranteed, and Damien Lewis to a four-year, $13.5M AAV contract with $26.2 M guaranteed. Here’s how the four guards did last season:

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

Lewis was the best of the four and you can argue that he lived up to his contract, grading above average in both pass and run blocking. Still, he gave up six sacks. Hunt run-blocked above average but was a bit subpar in pass blocking. Looking at the PFF grades and the pressure stats for all four players, the Panthers didn’t get that much more for the $33.5M they spent on their IOL than the Giants got for $13M. This year’s IOL free agent darling is Trey Smith. He’ll surely command as much as Hunt if not more. Don’t do it. The time to get him was in Round 6 in 2021. Smith is a very good run blocker but his 67.0 pass block grade was only 28th among regular starters at guard. Save your $20M+ contracts for other positions.

Runyan will be back next year, and if I were Joe Schoen I’d bring back Van Roten for one more year. He was the team’s iron man, playing all 1,121 offensive snaps, more than 100 more than any other player on either side of the ball, and filling in at center when John Michael Schmitz was injured. If not, then signing a free agent guard at at modest cost is the best move. I would, however, also look to draft a guard on Day 3, particularly one who run blocks well, to develop while the two veterans are still Giants. Also, maybe finally the Giants will move Evan Neal to guard to try to salvage his career. Neal played guard his first year at Alabama, and the Eagles successfully moved Mekhi Becton (who is just as tall as Neal, one of the excuses people make about why he can’t play guard) inside last season.

Speaking of center, if you think John Michael Schmitz should have a short leash in Year 3 before the Giants move on, it doesn’t look like a great year for them in the draft – none ranked in the top 64. It might be worth taking one in Round 4 but probably no higher. Otherwise it’s a possible target for free agency depending on which center(s) decide to test the waters.

Meeting the most urgent needs

Quarterback is pretty simple. The Giants have to sign a bridge quarterback who can start in 2025 but doesn’t cost much. To me, that means Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, or Jameis Winston. You may feel differently. Just don’t give Sam Darnold or Kirk Cousins anything like a Daniel Jones-level contract or take on the Derek Carr contract in a trade. Then draft a quarterback the first time value meets draft position. To me, that means Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders at No. 3, or any of the others at No. 34 or later.

The opposite of the IOL example discussed above is the edge defender position. You don’t want to shop at the high end in free agency for one, because the best command big contracts and there will be many good options in Rounds 1 and 2 of the draft. If Schoen brings Azeez Ojulari back on an inexpensive contract, you could argue that there isn’t a need…but that’s exactly the situation in which you can and should go best player available in the draft and deepen a key position in the process. The Eagles send Brandon Graham, Josh Sweat, Bryce Huff, Nolan Smith, and rookie Jalyx Hunt at at your QB. You could do what Adam Peters did in Washington this season, signing Frankie Luvu (three years, $31M) and Dorance Armstrong (three years, $33M) and Dante Fowler (one-year, $3.25M) to beef up the edge. But why spend the money give this year’s draft class?

Defensive tackle is trickier. There will probably be a mini-run on them late in the first round and early in the second, so the Giants might be in good position to get one at No. 34. On the other hand, there may be many good options in free agency; as one example, a B.J. Hill reunion (if he reaches free agency) would be welcomed by Giants fans to expunge Dave Gettleman’s original sin if the price is reasonable. Milton Williams or Osi Odighizuwa would work for me, too.

A lot depends on how the quarterback situation plays out. If they are shut out of Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders, then pick No. 34 (or a trade-up from No. 34) has to be a QB. In that case edge defender Abdul Carter at No. 3 makes perfect sense. If they get Ward or Sanders, then No. 34 could either be an edge defender or a DT. Having a starting-caliber free agent DT already in the fold would allow Schoen to take the best player available in that spot.

The secondary is also a difficult case. The table above shows that good safety prospects are rare in this draft, so the Giants should really find a veteran in free agency to play alongside Tyler Nubin. Cornerback is a more plentiful commodity on Days 1 and 2 of the draft, but everyone wants a shutdown corner and going that route with the Round 2 pick would eliminate one of quarterback and edge until Round 3. The Giants absolutely cannot go into Week 1 with Tae Banks as CB1, however. This might be where Schoen tries to make his biggest free agency splash. It will cost, but if he has to shop hungry, this would be the place to do it. That doesn’t preclude using No. 34 on a CB – it just means he doesn’t have to force a pick if the good ones are off the board. It also doesn’t rule out picking Travis Hunter at No. 3, going QB at No. 3, and saving edge defender until the top of Round 3.

I haven’t mentioned offensive tackle, running back, tight end, off-ball linebacker. I don’t see the Giants drafting any of the last three of those positions until Day 3 (they should have two fourth round picks as a the result of a comp pick for Xavier McKinney). Offensive tackle is interesting, though. Jermaine Eluemunor was the Giants’ low-key best free agent signing in 2024. He’s not a Pro Bowler, but he’s a perfectly good right tackle at a bargain price ($9.2M cap hit this year) and has emerged as a team leader. Eluemunor is the poster child for an effective approach to free agency. Schoen should try to extend him.

On the other side, Andrew Thomas is one of the best left tackles in the NFL, but he’s oft-injured. I would get Tyre Phillips under contract as soon as possible as insurance, and have Neal as the second backup since he did show some progress last year. I might also take a flyer on one of the many developmental offensive tackle prospects ranked near the bottom of Round 3 or top of Round 4 with one of the Giants’ two fourth-round picks.

I also haven’t mentioned wide receiver. Colleges are churning out NFL-caliber WR prospects in recent years as if they have an assembly line, and this year is no exception. The field isn’t as impressive at the top as that in 2024, but it’s still deep, second only to edge defender in the chart above. I’d like to see Darius Slayton back, but the Giants’ brain trust doesn’t appear to share my opinion. Jalin Hyatt remains a mystery. The Giants could stand pat with their WR room, but my guess is they won’t. Tee Higgins? Sure, but it will cost an arm and a leg. Other options like Chris Godwin (coming off an ankle dislocation) might be attractive, but again the cost might be high. In the draft, it’s hard to imagine the Giants going wide receiver on Day 1 or 2 given their other needs, although picking Hunter would partly address that. Still, the last few drafts have seen players like Puca Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Khalil Shakir, and Romeo Doubs last until Day 3.

If I were the GM

…this would be my plan:

External free agent signings (starters, ignoring the many back of the roster FAs and RFAs that the Giants will sign or re-sign at or near the vet minimum): Bridge QB, DT, CB, safety.

Giants’ own free agents: Re-sign Ojulari, Phillips, Van Roten, and Slayton, along with Jamie Gillan, who has done a pretty good job.

Draft: QB, edge defender, DT in some order on Days 1 and 2, IOL and/or OT in Round 4, then best available for the rest of the draft…including a kicker in Round 7, by the way. It’s time to move on from Graham Gano.

Will that get the Giants to the playoffs? Probably not, unless Ward or Sanders lands in blue and does what Jayden Daniels did in 2024. It will though give them a chance to win every game and the means to actually close the deal in enough of them.