Taking a look at the Week 1 prop bets for the Miami Dolphins versus the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Miami Dolphins are set to host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday in an intra-Florida rivalry. A Week 1 showdown between two AFC teams with high hopes for the 2024 regular season should prove to be a good one, with FanDuel sportsbook expecting a close game. As of Saturday afternoon, the betting line has the Dolphins favored by 3.5 points, essentially picking up a half-point over the standard home-field advantage line.
Outside of the point spread bet, what are the best prop bets available for this week’s game? This afternoon, we take a look at some of the top player-specific stat bets that FanDuel has listed for the game.
Tyreek Hill
Receiving yards: 97.5
Over: -113 / Under: -113
Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill chased 2,000 receiving yards last year, only to have injuries slow him down late in the season. He finished the year with 1,799 yards, the seventh most in a season in league history. While he has not been as vocal about that goal leading into this year, he has made some comments about wanting to make another run at that milestone. If he is going to reach that mark, he is going to have to start off the year with a big number.
Hill surpassed the 100-yard mark eight times last year, including a 215-yard performance in Week 1. He will be looking to get over 100 yards again to start this season. He should surpass 100 yards, giving us the over on this bet.
Bet: Over.
Tua Tagovailoa
Passing Touchdowns: 1.5
Over: -156 / Under: +120
The Dolphins are a pass-first, pass-often team, at least until head coach Mike McDaniel proves he will stick to the running game. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa led the league in passer rating in 2022 and in passing yards in 2023. He threw for at least two touchdowns in eight games last year, averaging 1,7 passing touchdowns per game over the 17-week regular season.
The value may be on taking the under here, but the over seems like the better play. Given wide receiver Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, along with the addition of tight end Jonnu Smith and the pass-catching ability of running backs De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert, it feels like Tagovailoa reaching two passing touchdowns per game should be expected this year.
Bet: Over.
Same Game Parlay
Tyreek Hill 20+ yard reception
De’Von Achane 1st half touchdown
Raheem Mostert 40+ yards rushing/receiving
+435
Building a same-game parlay, meaning all three have to hit for a payout, can lead to some great odds. In this case, putting these three together leads to a +435 line – paying out $435 if you were to bet $100 and all three came true. For these three, it seems like a fairly decent bet.
Hill going for over 20 yards on a reception feels like a sure thing. He will break at least one reception for a long gain. Achane adding a anytime touchdown in the first half – rushing or receiving – feels right. And Mostert seems like the forgotten member of the offense from a preseason analysis point of view, but he will still have a large role on the offense. Getting to 40 combined receiving and rushing yards, a mark he surpassed in every game played last year, should be an obtainable mark this weekend.
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