Film breakdown: Why Dan Campbell doesn’t regret failed third-and-1 play

Many questioned a third-down play call the Detroit Lions ran in the playoffs that resulted in a fumble. Here’s why Dan Campbell is standing by it.

Without a doubt, one of the most pivotal plays in the Detroit Lions’ Divisional Round loss to the Washington Commanders happened late in the first quarter on a third-and-1 play. The Lions had the ball at Washington’s 17-yard line, looking to build on their 7-3 lead. It was really the first and last time the Lions had true control of the game.

Unfortunately, disaster struck for the Lions. Jared Goff was sacked, fumbled, and Commanders linebacker Frankie Luvu recovered. Washington took the ensuing possession for a touchdown, gaining the lead for the first time, and they were off to the races.

That play call has come under fire by many fans and analysts. Not only did the Lions opt to throw over running on a third-and-short, but they had an empty backfield, so they let the defense know they were passing.

However, even two days after the game, Lions coach Dan Campbell said he did not regret the call, and that he’d do it again. Let’s examine his comments on the play and look back at the film to see how this critical moment went so awry.

It was a play they were very comfortable with

According to Campbell, part of the reason the Lions called that play in the moment is because of their comfortability with it.

“It’s a play we’ve run, man, I don’t know, 50 times this year or something, and it just didn’t – it didn’t work out,” Campbell said.

It’s not only a play they’re very comfortable with, it’s a formation they are familiar with running on third-and-short. Per Timo Riske of PFF, the Lions went with an empty backfield on third-and-short eight times this season. They converted on six of those eight plays, a conversion rate on par with all third-and-shorts.

They were going to go for it on fourth down

It may seem immaterial given that the Lions turned the ball over, but Campbell said the intention was for the team to go for it on fourth down had they not converted—and not turned the ball over.

“We were ready to go for it on fourth, so we’d run it on fourth if that didn’t take place,” Campbell said.

Perhaps the best way to think of Detroit’s strategy is that they treat each down like the one before it. It’s extremely common for teams to open up the playbook on second-and-short, knowing they can revert to the run on third-and-short. That, in essence, was what Campbell was doing. Why not take a shot through the air when the defense may not know what’s coming?

The Lions got the look they wanted

“We liked the matchup with (Amon-Ra St. Brown) Saint on (Bobby) Wagner,” Campbell said.

Here’s a look at what the play looked like pre-snap:

The Lions are four wide, and the Commanders initially show a two-safety shell. However, by sending David Montgomery in motion to the left, Detroit gets all the signifiers they need to confirm Washington is in man-coverage. The safety to the top of the screen follows Montgomery and Jared Goff knows exactly the defense he’s up against.

The motion out of the backfield isn’t completely necessary, but it does confirm that Washington is in man and that the Lions have the matchup they want. Jameson Williams runs a clear-out route to the right, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, who already has outside leverage against 34-year-old Bobby Wager, will occupy that spot for an easy conversion and possibly much more.

The execution of a relatively low-risk play was a disaster

This is a three-step drop and immediate throw for Goff. Pass protection shouldn’t be an issue, because the ball should be out in less than three seconds. And it’s a relatively simple route for St. Brown against a player nine years older than him. With the pre-snap look, this should be an easier conversion than if the Lions had shown a run front and just tried to play bully ball.

Unfortunately, just about everything that could go wrong went wrong.

“It was just a little bit of a slip (from St. Brown), Goff has to choke the ball, then he moves up,” Campbell said. “We get beat in protection – on a three-step, it’s not a seven-step, it’s three-step so it happened fast and then disaster.”

Indeed, St. Brown slips out of his break.

That throws off the entire timing of the play, and by the time he’s open, Goff is looking elsewhere, and under pressure, because Graham Glasgow blew his block immediately.

The entire play was a domino effect of doom. St. Brown slips, so Goff has to hold it on an extra half second. Glasgow blows his block, so the Lions cannot afford that extra time. Goff fails to secure the football, so Detroit never has the opportunity to go for it on fourth down.

All together now:

“Don’t care, they still should have ran it!”

Yeah, that’s fair. At that point in the game, the Lions were running the ball quite successfully. While Montgomery only had 4 yards on four carries at that point, half of those carriers were “successful.” Moreover, Jahmyr Gibbs had four carries for 58 yards and a touchdown at that point, and all four of his carries were successes. The only failed runs at that point in the game came on the opening drive when Detroit was trying to get Montgomery going after returning from injury.

But it’s also worth noting that Detroit’s rushing efficiency would not stay electric the rest of the way. While Gibbs’ next run following the fumble went for 12 yards, the following two rushes gained 0 yards and 1 yards. In the second half, Gibbs’ five carries went for just 9 yards. The Commanders were adjusting, and there is no guarantee Detroit converts on this third-and-short had they run the football.

Ultimately, the Lions were confident in the play and they got the exact look they were hoping for. The reason for its failure had more to do with execution than it being the wrong call.

“I’m not second-guessing that,” Campbell said. “And if we were going to do it all over again, I’d do the same thing, and I know that’s a hard pill to swallow, but it just didn’t – it didn’t work out for us.”