The NFL season is finally upon us, and that means another year of our On Paper previews.
For the uninitiated, I’m going to try and keep it simple. These previews are meant to be as objective as possible by looking at the statistical output from each team. I will look at all four individual matchups (Lions pass offense vs. Opponents pass defense, etc.) and provide an edge in each on a 1-5 scale. At the end, we’ll add up the edges and produce who I think the winner will be.
For each matchup, there are two charts: one for the Lions, one for the opponent. These charts take each team’s weekly performance and compare it to season-long averages. For example, if Jared Goff throws for 350 yards and a 108.5 passer rating, I’m going to compare that to the average yardage and passer rating allowed by that specific opponent. That would qualify as an elite performance against a top-five defense, but potentially an average one against the worst defense. That context matters and is rarely examined.
Each individual performance is either shaded green (+5% of the opponent’s average), yellow (+/- within 5%) or red (-5% of the opponent’s average).
Because there is no 2024 data, for the first three weeks of the season, we’re using solely 2023 data unless otherwise stated. No preseason stats will be used.
With all that said, let’s get into this week’s Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Rams preview and prediction.
Lions pass offense (7th) vs. Rams pass defense (21st)
Though there were blips along the way, the Lions passing offense was one of the best last year by any metric you value. They were eighth in DVOA, seventh in EPA, fifth in success rate, fifth in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating. I think you get the point.
There are really only two changes to the Lions’ offense in total: Jonah Jackson has been essentially replaced by veteran Pro Bowler Kevin Zeitler, and Josh Reynolds has not really been replaced, but much of his playing time is expected to be usurped by Jameson Williams.
While an argument could certainly be made that Detroit downgraded in both scenarios—Zeitler is extremely talented, but you’re going from a 27-year-old to a 34-year-old—there really isn’t much of a reason to expect any serious regression here. Jared Goff is still very much in his prime, he has an offensive line that finished top five in adjusted sack rate, and despite the loss of Reynolds, he still has a ton of reliable targets in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, and, potentially, Williams.
In the Wild Card matchup, Goff was electric, completing 22-of-27 passes for 277 yards, a touchdown and a 121.8 passer rating. His 10.3 yards per pass attempt in that game was the highest mark of his 2023 season.
Last year, the Rams pass defense was relatively poor for the season. They ranked 21st in DVOA, 18th in EPA, 12th in success rate, 13th in yards per attempt, and 12th in passer rating. Overall, they weren’t terrible, but they were average, at best.
This offseason, though, they’ve gone through some major changes. On the defensive line, they lost Hall of Famer Aaron Donald, but they’ve added two early-round draft picks on the defensive line in first rounder Jared Verse, and second round pick Braden Fiske. Last year, they finished in the bottom 10 in sacks, and they lost 12.5 of their 41 sacks with Donald (8.0) and linebacker Ernest Jones (4.5) now gone. But, it’s certainly reasonable to think Fiske and Verse could make up for that.
In the secondary, they’ve gone through a complete overhaul. The last time the two teams faced, here were the Rams’ starting defensive backs:
CB: Ahkello Witherspoon
CB: Cobie Durant
Nickel: Quentin Lake
S: John Johnson
S: Russ Yeast
Now, this is the expected lineup:
CB: Darious Williams Cobie Durant
CB: Tre’Davious White
Nickel: Quentin Lake
S: John Johnson
S: Kam Curl
They’ve plugged the secondary with a ton of veterans to help cut down on the mistakes, but one has to wonder how much Williams (31 years old), White (29, coming off 2 major injuries), and Johnson (28) have left in the tank. UPDATE: Williams was placed on IR Thursday afternoon.
Lest we forget the linebacker room. With Jones suddenly and shockingly gone, the Rams are handing the keys to Christian Rozeboom, who went undrafted in 2020 and has just five career starts to his name, and/or Troy Reeder, a five-year vet who has started six games over the past two seasons (and 31 total).
Player to watch: Sam LaPorta. With the middle of the Rams defense vulnerable due to a poor linebacker room (although they have a couple strong nickel/safety defenders), I expect LaPorta to eat. He only had three catches in the playoff matchup, but he was coming off an injury. Don’t be surprised if he comes out of the 2024 season with at least five catches in the opener.
Advantage: Lions +1.5. I gave the Lions +2 advantage in the Wild Card round here, but there are so many unknowns when it comes to the Rams defense that my confidence level is just a tad lower. I do think there’s much more talent for Los Angeles’ defense, but with so many moving parts and the last-minute trade of Jones, there will be an acclimation period—especially with new defensive coordinator Chris Shula taking over for Raheem Moore.
Lions run offense (4th) vs. Rams run defense (20th)
While the Lions passing offense was good last year, their rushing attack was elite. They finished the regular season fourth in DVOA, sixth in EPA, eighth in success rate, and fifth in yards per carry. Without a mobile quarterback threat, those numbers are fantastic.
Again, there is very little reason to expect any sort of regression. While run blocking isn’t Zeitler’s specialty, he’s more than capable of it, and I’m sure he’ll be just fine in between Frank Ragnow and Penei Sewell.
Meanwhile, you’ve got Gibbs entering his second year, Montgomery fully healthy, and a solid pair of running backs behind them. It would be a major shock to see the Lions take a step back here.
This was a pretty average run defense last year, but as you can see on the chart above, they improved as the season went on. In fact, they held the Lions to just 79 rushing yards and 3.2 yards per carry in the playoff game (although they gave up two rushing touchdowns).
But, of course, Ernest Jones was their best run defender. His 90.0 PFF run defense grade was not only the best on the team by a significant margin, but it ranked fifth among all NFL linebackers.
I still think this will be a significant challenge for the Lions rushing attack, but with so much change on the Rams front seven, it’s hard to feel confident either way.
Player to watch: Bobby Brown. You may not know Brown, as he’s a relatively unheralded member of the Rams’ defensive front. But the 324-pound nose tackle is a key part of their run defense, occupying blockers to free up other defenders. It’s a decent test for Frank Ragnow, who enters the year healthy and as possibly the best center in football.
Advantage: Lions +1. As I already said, it’s hard for me to have confidence in either direction given the changes on the Rams side of this matchup, but I do think the Jones trade could be the difference here in the Lions’ favor.
Rams pass offense (9th) vs. Lions pass defense (16th)
This feels like a good time to pull out a graphic I made for the Lions/Rams playoff game last season that highlighted just how different of a team Los Angeles was in the second half of the season.
In short, the Rams offense was incredible down the stretch, ranking top-five in just about every statistical category. And against the Lions, Matthew Stafford lit up the secondary. He finished the day with 367 passing yards, 10.2 yards per attempt, two touchdowns, and a 120.9 passer rating.
This year, there aren’t too many changes when it comes to their skill positions. Back are Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Demarcus Robinson. Kyren Williams returns to the backfield and is now paired with rookie running back Blake Corum. Tight end Tyler Higbee will miss this game after suffering a torn ACL/MCL in the playoff game, and the Rams will replace him with free agent addition Colby Parkinson, who is more of a blocking tight end.
Nearly all the changes on offense are along the offensive line. Last year, the Rams ranked 20th in PFF pass blocking grade, 21st in pass block win rate, but sixth in sacks allowed, highlighting their ability to get rid of the ball quickly.
The addition of Jonah Jackson will help, but the offensive line will be in a bit of disarray in Week 1. Left tackle Alaric Jackson is suspended, Jackson is suddenly playing center, and right tackle Rob Havenstein is limited with an ankle injury. Detroit could be catching this offensive line at the right time.
The Lions pass defense was pretty terrible last year. I don’t really need to get into it. You can see it above. It did improve late in the season when they opted to play more man-coverage and get more aggressive in their pass rush. However, they were still hemorrhaging yardage and touchdowns over that span, including in the postseason game against the Rams.
But Detroit’s defense has gone through just as many—if not more—personnel changes than the Rams. Let’s start with the secondary. Here’s what it looked like against the Rams:
CB: Cam Sutton
CB: Kindle Vildor
Nickel: Brian Branch
S: Kerby Joseph
S: Ifeatu Melifonwu/C.J. Gardner-Johnson
Projected for Week 1:
CB: Carlton Davis
CB: Terrion Arnold
Nickel: Amik Robertson
S: Kerby Joseph
S: Brian Branch
Four of the five positions will have a new starter. New doesn’t necessarily mean better, but Detroit put a significant investment into the secondary, and it does feel like it’s only a matter of time before it pays off. That said, it may not be right away, as this group got very little playing time together in training camp.
There’s just as much optimism for Detroit’s defensive front, which struggled to create pressure outside of Aidan Hutchinson last year. Marcus Davenport and the breakout of Levi Onwuzurike headline the changes for this season—along with the eventual addition of DJ Reader, though his status for Sunday is unclear.
Overall, there is a lot of hope for a big jump in this defense, but no proof of concept yet.
Player to watch: Puka Nacua. It’s low-hanging fruit, but Nacua tore up Detroit to the tune of nine catches, 181 yards and a touchdown last season. Sutton and Vildor combined to allow eight catches on 10 targets for 170 yards and two touchdowns. Let’s hope Davis/Arnold is a much more successful duo.
Advantage: Rams +1. I am a firm believer that the Lions defense will be much better this season, but it’s hard to make a statistical argument for that right now. It’s all in theory now, so I expect Stafford to put up 300+ yards again on Sunday. But I’m leaving just enough uncertainty for Detroit to nab a turnover or two.
Rams run offense (6th) vs. Lions run defense (1st)
Much like their pass offense, the Rams’ rushing attack really hit its stride toward the end of last season. In fact, from Weeks 12-17, Kyren Williams led the NFL with 688 rushing yards and averaged an impressive 5.3 YPC over that span. (Note: The Rams rested their starters in Week 18).
It’s reasonable to expect the Rams to pick up where they left off last season, but it’s also hard to know what it’s going to look like in Week 1 with a couple of new, shifting parts on the offensive line. That said, the addition of Corum in the backfield should help make sure there is little drop-off when Williams is off the field.
Detroit was phenomenal against the run last season. Now, there have been some personnel changes this year—swapping out nose tackle Benito Jones for DJ Reader, not to mention the addition of Marcus Davenport on the edge. That said, if Reader even plays in Week 1, it’ll almost certainly be in a limited role. Instead, expect veteran Kyle Peko to manage the nose position for most of the game. Is he an upgrade of Jones? We’ll see.
Elsewhere, expect more of the same. The Lions’ linebacker crew is the same, and Jack Campbell is expected to take a Year 2 jump. Detroit’s secondary is filled with player unafraid to get involved. In short, I expect little-to-no regression here.
Player to watch: Peko. I think Peko could get a lot of playing time in Week 1, and he could be one of the biggest factors in stopping the run. Him vs. Jonah Jackson at center is a sneaky big matchup.
Advantage: Draw. I’m pretty confident that both of these units will be among the best in the NFL. I’m leaning toward giving the Rams the advantage here because of the offensive line shenanigans, but it’s also worth pointing out that LA ran the ball pretty well against the Lions last time. Williams rushed for 61 yards and 4.7 yards per carry in the game.
This week’s prediction
The Lions come out with a slight +1.5 advantage, which pretty much matches Vegas’ line of Lions -3.5. I truly believe this could be a matchup we see deep in the NFC playoffs this year. However, I’m ultimately giving the edge to Detroit here, because there’s a little more continuity and certainty with their team, while the Rams may have to work out some early kinks with their new additions.
Lions 31, Rams 24.
