Can Matthew Stafford return to elite level in time for playoffs?
Throughout Matthew Stafford’s tenure with the Los Angeles Rams, the veteran quarterback has shown stretches where he’s elite. On the other end of the spectrum, he’s also shown stretches in which he’s struggled and the Rams are winning with him rather than because of him. The upside is why the Rams traded for Stafford and he showed that in 2021. However, that still doesn’t mean that he hasn’t gone through poor stretches.
Unfortunately for the Rams, that stretch just so happens to be right before the playoffs and before they play their biggest game of the year. Over his last three games, Stafford ranks 23rd in yards per attempt, 20th in adjusted EPA per play, and 24th in completion percentage over expectation. His average depth of target is ahead of only Bo Nix and he hasn’t been accurate throwing the football. He’s also seemed hesitant at times in the pocket.
Seems like he has Kupp on the quick out and ball should have been out at the top of the drop.
Need the 7 for the first down, so not sure if he didn’t want to throw short of the sticks. Kupp may have had a chance though. pic.twitter.com/4YAekVu07F
— Blaine Grisak (@bgrisakTST) December 25, 2024
Weather certainly played a role in the games against the 49ers and Jets. With that said, Stafford’s 5.79 yards per attempt in cold weather games this year ranked 27th out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks. His average depth of target of 4.2 ranked ahead of only Drew Lock. In the rain, Stafford also struggled compared to other quarterbacks. His 5.93 yards per attempt ranked 12th out of 15 qualifying quarterbacks.
Multiple things can be true when it comes to Stafford’s level of play over the last month. It is true that weather has played a role. At the same time, he also hasn’t played well in those games compared to other quarterbacks in similar situations. That also doesn’t mean that Stafford doesn’t have the ability or there isn’t confidence that he can’t bounce back and have a big game during the playoffs. That’s how it has typically gone in Stafford’s career.
Prior to the 2021 Super Bowl run during the final weeks of the regular season, Stafford threw six touchdowns to seven interceptions. The Rams quarterback went on to have one of the more efficient playoff runs for a quarterback over the past 15 years.
From Week 7-11 last year, Stafford had an EPA per play of -0.037 which ranked 30th out of 34 quarterbacks. The next three games he threw 10 touchdowns to one interception and ranked fourth overall in EPA per play.
This is simply what Stafford has done throughout his career. Whether it’s being streaky over stretches of a few weeks or stretches within a game itself, it’s what has come to be expected. However, at some point, Stafford always regains his form even if it ends up being in the fourth quarter needing to lead a comeback.
Stafford has always been a big game player. In eight career playoff games, Stafford has thrown for over 300 yards and had a passer rating over 90 in five of them. He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in six. He’s a player that shows up in the big games and that’s been the case this season.
With the Rams sitting at 2-4 heading into a game against the Vikings, Stafford threw for 279 yards and four touchdowns in that win. Stafford had his best game of the season against the Bills, throwing for 320 yards. That was Stafford’s last impressive game.
The Rams quarterback will be coming off of a week of rest on Monday Night Football as he sat in Week 18. Hopefully, a week of rest allows him to refresh and get back on track. The Rams will only go as far as Matthew Stafford takes them. If Stafford wants to be in consideration for the Hall of Fame, he needs another deep playoff run and potentially make another Super Bowl appearance. For that to happen, Stafford will need to get out of his slump and show up in the big games as he has done throughout his time with the Rams.
