College Football Playoff Semifinal: Betting market update
2Y26EW6 Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) throws against Michigan in the first half of an NCAA college football game in Ann Arbor, Mich., Saturday, Sept. 7, 2024. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
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Welcome to the College Football Playoff semifinal betting market update.
This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.
If you aren’t familiar, Click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve each week.
CAPITAL ONE ORANGE BOWL: NOTRE DAME VS. PENN STATE
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | ND -1.5 | ND -1.5 | ND -2 |
| Total | 45.5 | 46.5 | 45 |
Spread: We saw this spread move up to 2 shortly after opening. There wasn’t much movement over the weekend, but now books are taking this to 2.5. The market is currently split between those two numbers. We’ve not seen a 3 anywhere, and I don’t anticipate we do.
Total: The initial move here was up to as high as 47.5. Since it’s hit that mark, it’s been a consistent slide down to where it sits now at 45. There are still some 45.5s on the board.
Buy/Sell: If you missed it, I’m on the under here. Despite the lower number now, I still like the under at 45.5.
National Championship Odds: Notre Dame +410 | Penn State +500
GOODYEAR COTTON BOWL CLASSIC: OHIO STATE VS. TEXAS
| Lookahead | Opener | Current Line | |
| Spread | OSU -1.5 | OSU -6 | OSU -6 |
| Total | 51.5 | 54 | 53.5 |
Spread: It has been quite the adjustment from the lookaheads to now, with Ohio State holding a 6-point advantage. We’ve seen this get down to as low as 5 before jumping back up to 6. The market is pretty split now between 5.5 and 6.
Total: The total has not moved much besides a half-point decrease to 53.5. A few books have taken that down even further to 53.
Buy/Sell: I’m back to fade Ohio State once more. Even though lookahead markets are relatively illiquid, I think this move was too much, and I’ll take Texas +6. If you can find a flat +5.5, I’d prefer that number.
National Championship Odds: Ohio State -120 | Texas +450
