Rams robbed of celebration moment despite virtual certainty of playoffs

The Rams have a greater than 99% chance to win the NFC West

The Los Angeles Rams basically won the NFC West on Saturday night by defeating the Arizona Cardinals 13-9, but nobody is celebrating as if they are going to the playoffs. That’s because in the NFL the only thing that matters in victory is certainty and nobody wants to “Desean Jackson” the ball at the goal line. However, they will say “stranger things have happened” than the Rams losing the NFC West to the Seahawks in the next week.

I’m not so sure that’s true. The Rams’ odds to win the NFC West are over 99% and based on almost 150,000 simulations at The Upshot, L.A. takes the division nearly every single time.

Losing the division at this point would require that the Seahawks hit a parlay that nobody would bother wasting $1 on in Vegas.

Not only does Seattle need to beat the Rams in Week 18, they essentially need about nine other teams to win their games in the next eight days. Which means that the NFC West will have a winner, but strangely L.A.’s celebration was incomplete on Saturday night even though the Rams will almost certainly sit their starters in Week 18 because the division will most likely be clinched before they host Seattle.

Even if the Seahawks win next week, before we calculate anything else into L.A.’s odds to win the NFC West, the Rams are still over 99% to win the NFC West. Because next week’s game continues to be meaningless unless Seattle wins bet after bet after bet after bet after bet after bet after bet. Any slip-ups and the Rams cash in.

For a team that started the season 1-4 and has basically clinched the division title before Week 18, the Rams would deserve a celebration. However, maybe this will work to Sean McVay’s advantage.

The Rams are excited, but maybe not too excited.

If the Seahawks can hold onto hope through this weekend (their odds would still be less than 4% even if they get all 5 wins they need this weekend), it would also mean that McVay has to prepare his team as if Week 18 matters. If the Seahawks are eliminated on Sunday, it would be the news that L.A. wants because that means winning the division.

It would also mean that players’ minds are already starting to wander because now “Week 18 doesn’t matter”. And it almost certainly won’t matter anyway and most starters will sit.

But the players don’t need to know that.

So even if the Rams didn’t get to celebrate a division title on Saturday night, that’s not what these players want to celebrate anyway. Winning the NFC West is nothing new to Sean McVay. L.A. doesn’t “need” a division title or a playoff game. No, the Rams need a playoff run.

For Stafford to backup his Super Bowl win in 2021, he needs to go back to the Super Bowl.

The players celebrated a win, but not a division title. That could be good for them in the long run.