The Miami Dolphins have not had the regular season they anticipated, but they still have a shot at the playoffs with two weeks remaining. How do they get there?
The Miami Dolphins have struggled through an inconsistent 2024 season, one in which they have looked more like an also-ran than a contender. Preseason projections saw Miami as a team ready to make a deep playoff run. Instead, they find themselves on the outside looking in with two weeks to play.
However, while eliminations are happening all around the league, the Dolphins have managed to stave off that fate. Could they find their way into the playoffs for the third-straight season? While they still need a lot of helps, there is a clear path that could land them in the postseason.
Miami Dolphins playoff scenarios
All of the remaining scenarios for the Dolphins involve them winning both of their games. Miami faces the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, a game in which the Dolphins, according to the FanDuel Sportsbook betting odds as of 4:30 p.m. Eastern on Monday, are favored by 6.5 points. In Week 18, the Dolphins face the New York Jets, looking to back up their Week 14 victory over their AFC East division rivals.
The rest of the scenarios all involve other potential wild card teams losing over the next couple of weeks. Miami’s biggest issue is they cannot find themselves in a two-way tie with the Indianapolis Colts, who beat the Dolphins in Week 7, giving them the head-to-head tiebreak. Miami can pull ahead in tiebreaks that also include the Denver Broncos and/or the Los Angeles Chargers based on their performance in the AFC this season.
Scenario 1:
- Dolphins win out (@ CLE, @ NYJ)
- Chargers lose out (@ NE, @LV)
- Colts lose/tie at least one game (@NYG, vs JAX)
Scenario 2:
- Dolphins win out (@ CLE, @ NYJ)
- Broncos lose out (@ CIN, vs KC)
- Colts lose/tie at least one game (@NYG, vs JAX)
Scenario 3:
- Dolphins win out (@ CLE, @ NYJ)
- Chargers lose out (@ NE, @LV)
- Broncos lose out (@ CIN, vs KC)
The Dolphins, if any of these scenarios play out, would likely land as the seventh seed, set to face the second seed in the AFC playoff picture in the wild card round. If scenario three came to fruition, and the Colts loss (essentially, all three scenarios coming true, Miami could jump into the sixth-seed position, potentially avoiding a wild card matchup with the Buffalo Bills as the likely second seed.
Miami Dolphins elimination scenarios
Unfortunately, the Dolphins can be eliminated from the playoffs this week, even if they win against the Browns.
Miami Dolphins eliminated from playoffs if:
- Dolphins lose/tie OR
- Chargers win/tie and Broncos win/tie
AFC Playoff Picture (after Week 16):
1 – Kansas City Chiefs (14-1, AFC West champion)+
2 – Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East champion)+
3 – Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5, AFC North leader)^
4 – Houston Texans (9-6, AFC South champion)+
5 – Baltimore Ravens (10-5, Wild Card 1 position)^
6 – Los Angeles Chargers (9-6, Wild Card 2 position)
7 – Denver Broncos (9-6, Wild Card 3 position)
Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
Miami Dolphins (7-8)
Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)
Eliminated from playoffs:
New York Jets (4-11)
Cleveland Browns (3-12)
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
Tennessee Titans (3-12)
Las Vegas Raiders (3-12)
New England Patriots (3-12)
^ Playoffs clinched
+ Division championship clinched
Tie breaks:
- Steelers over Ravens based on AFC record
- Chargers over Broncos based on head-to-head results
- Colts over Dolphins and Bengals based on AFC record
- Dolphins over Bengals based on AFC record
- Browns over Jaguars based on head-to-head results; Divisional tiebreak: Jaguars over Titans based on head-to-head results; Four-way tie: Browns and Jaguars over Raiders and Patriots based on AFC record.
- Jaguars over Raiders and Patriots based on AFC record; Divisional tiebreak: Jaguars over Titans based on head-to-head results
- Titans over Raiders and Patriots based on AFC record
- Raiders over Patriots based on AFC record
