Did the Dolphins make a mistake when they drafted Tua Tagovailoa over Justin Herbert?
The five year famous discussion that seems to rear its head every year is “should the The famous five-year topic that seems to rear its head every year is “Should the Dolphins have drafted Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert.”
It’s a debate that split the Miami Dolphins fan base. With Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers 34-27 win Thursday night over the Denver Broncos, pretty much securing a playoff sport while simultaneously knocking the Miami Dolphins out, the “Tua-haters” are taking a victory lap and dancing on the graves of the Dolphins 2024 season.
Seeing responses out there about how Herbert put the team on his back, coming in clutch, and not fading when the lights are at their brightest, albeit most of that is a bit exaggerated on their part, I wanted to take a closer look at both Tagovailoa and Herbert’s stats up to this point to see who has been the better quarterback… statistically.
To put both quarterbacks into context, Tagovailoa was held down by a defensive head coach in Brain Flores for the first two years, while Herbert got the green light to rip it under Anthony Lynn and Brandon Staley.
For the last three years, Tagovailoa has been with Mike McDaniel and was given that same green light to let it fly, similar to Herbert’s first four years. This year, Herbert has been confined within a run-heavy offense, acting as more of a game manager who leans on his defense, making little to no mistakes but making big plays and throws when needed.
Both have been victim to a seesaw of head coaching styles that have inflated or deflated their numbers but sort of even out up to this point. We’ll look at their career averages and then show the last two years, given that after year three, quarterbacks are expected to “make the leap.”
Who Should’ve Been the Fifth Pick?
Looking back at the 2020 draft, both Tagovailoa and Herbert were top of the draft prospects, with the former being the guy everyone thought was going number one overall, generating the “tank for Tua” hashtags from most bad teams on social media, with the Dolphins at the forefront of the movement. This was up until his career-altering hip injury and a clouded NFL future ahead of him.
The latter was the prototypical, big, strong-armed, ultra-athletic quarterback, but his weaknesses resembled the Dolphins last invested franchise quarterback, Ryan Tannehill. I still believe to this day that the Dolphins saw Tannehill 2.0 and didn’t give it a second look, even with their head coach Flores endorsing him.
The Dolphins ultimately took Tagovailoa fifth overall, and the Chargers took Herbert the pick after. Both have put up good numbers but have accomplished the same amount toward what matters the most in playoff wins, and that’s nothing, zilch, nada.
Through the five years in the league up to this point in the season, their averages are the following:
Tua Tagovailoa – 12.6 GP, 273.0 CMP, 400.6 ATT, 68.1 CMP%, 3058.2 YDS, 7.6 AVG, 242.7 YDS/G, 19.8 TD, 8.8 INT, 98.0 RTG, 4.9 TD% & 2.2 INT%
Justin Herbert – 15.4 GP, 378.2 CMP, 570.4 ATT, 66.3 CMP%, 4093.2 YDS, 7.2 AVG, 265.8 YDS/G, 26.4 TD, 9.0 INT, 96.1 RTG, 4.6 TD% & 0.7 INT%
What stands out the most from their career averages is that Herbert plays more games a year, throws a lot more, and generates more yards and touchdowns while making fewer mistakes than Tagovailoa.
The only advantage I can give the Dolphins quarterback is that his completion percentage is slightly better and generates a better rating. While Herbert generates offense and big plays, Tagovailoa efficiently runs the offense.
Here’s the kicker. The script flipped in the last two years. With the same games played, Tagovailoa looks like the clear-cut better quarterback.
Tua Tagovailoa – 13.5 GP, 328.5 CMP, 462.5 ATT, 71.0 CMP%, 3638.0 YDS, 7.9 AVG, 269.5 YDS/G, 23.5 TD, 10.5 INT, 101.5 RTG, 5.1 TD%, 2.3 INT%
Justin Herbert – 14.0 GP, 287.5 CMP, 443.0 ATT, 64.9 CMP%, 3188.5 YDS, 7.2 AVG, 227.8 YDS/G, 19.0 TD, 5.0 INT, 95.7 RTG, 4.3 TD%, 1.1 INT%
Let’s break this down to by game over that same span:
Tua Tagovaloa – 24.3 CMP, 34.2 ATT, 71.0 CMP%, 269.5 YDS, 7.9 AVG, 1.7 TD, 0.8 INT
Justin Herbert – 21.3 CMP, 32.8 ATT, 64.9 CMP%, 236.2 YDS, 7.2 AVG, 1.4 TD, 0.37 INT
Hindsight is 20/20
Taking almost everything into account, such as statistics, accolades, and eye test. I would argue that the Dolphins made the right choice way back in the year of 2020, but when you add that thing they call health, the choice ends up clearly being Justin Herbert. Availability is the best ability, and there’s no way around it.
If you could turn off injuries like in Madden, the answer becomes murky, with either choice being justifiable. Tagovailoa’s concussion issues loom over every game, and the feeling is that he’s always one shot from retirement.
Tagovailoa has bounced back well from his latest concussion earlier this year and was playing at an elite level until his last stop in Houston. If he can stay healthy for the rest of the season, plus next year, maybe that narrative will go away.
The numbers career-wise go to Herbert for the reasons I explained, but over the last two years, Tagovailoa has flipped the narrative. If healthy, general manager Chris Grier can sleep semi-comfortably at night knowing he didn’t make a huge mistake in 2020.
Let us know in the comments who you think has had the better career up to this point and who you would’ve taken in the 2020 draft.
