The Dolphins loss to the Texans ensures that their season has ended
The Miami Dolphins latest defeat at the hands of C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans put an exclamation mark on the season that started with so much promise but ended with the same questions fans have asked for the last twenty years.
The 20-12 loss isn’t one of those “the scoreboard doesn’t tell the whole story” types of game, it’s exactly what it looks like.
The Dolphins offense couldn’t get much going and the problems were everywhere. Four turnovers by Tua Tagovailoa, including a game-losing interception, Tyreek Hill’s inability to beat Derek Stingley in man coverage, the lack of weapons after Jaylen Waddle’s injury, and the horrible play by a patchwork offensive line.
The field position given to the Texans from turnovers was the story of the game and ended up being too much for the Dolphins defense to overcome, but the unit had one of its best games from my perspective. Only surrendering two touchdowns to a high-powered Texans team that had great field position all game is commendable, and you won’t see any slander from me today.
Coming into the week, the Dolphins had a 13.4% chance of making the playoffs, but with the latest loss, the Dolphins now stand at a 4.8% chance of getting into the dance per ESPN’s playoff projector.
Outside of a Los Angeles Chargers collapse and a couple more losses from the Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals, the door has been slammed shut on the Dolphins hope of getting back to the playoffs.
Playoff hopes might have vanished, but assigning to losses never stops, so let’s get to it.
Tua Tagovailoa Isn’t Elite
If you’ve seen my articles before, you know I’m a fan of Tagovailoa and see him as the franchise quarterback of the Dolphins, but just because you’re a franchise quarterback, it doesn’t mean you’re elite and this game showcased that.
I only give the top five-ish quarterbacks elite status, and Tagovailoa isn’t one of them. I consider him top-ten, giving him franchise quarterback status due to his “superpowers” like accuracy, processing, timing, and anticipation. The skills he doesn’t possess that would propel him into elite status are speed and arm strength.
I’m in the trenches of the physical vs. mental attributes debate. Still, when the play breaks down, you either need the speed to consistently pick up first downs without getting smashed or have the elusiveness/arm strength combo to leave the pocket and hit receivers downfield under pressure. He can’t do either, and I don’t think he has the physical tools to get there.
That’s not a deal breaker though. Those quarterbacks don’t grow on trees, and there are plenty of quarterbacks who have those physical tools but don’t have the mental traits to become a franchise quarterback, let alone elite.
When the protection is there, and receivers get some separation, Tagovailoa is as good as it gets, but when the circumstances aren’t normal-to-good, he can’t carry them.
He shouldn’t have to, but the elite quarterbacks do when called upon.
Clean Football is a Foreign Language
We have the answer on Tagovailoa’s elite status, but as I alluded, he shouldn’t have to be that to win big games.
Everything that could go wrong around Tagovailoa offensively went wrong on Sunday.
The running game averaged 2.7 yards per rush.
The Dolphins had eight penalties. Most were on offense and stalled drives.
Three of the Dolphins offensive linemen graded lower than 50 and would’ve graded worse if the offense wasn’t calling quick passes and screens half of the time.
Jaylen Waddle injured his knee in the second quarter and never came back.
Tyreek Hill was involved with all three interceptions, including a sloppy route, not being able to win in man coverage, and getting the ball snatched from him on the game-losing interception when he had two hands on it, and the defender had one. It just can’t happen.
Tagovailoa’s three interceptions and one forced fumble are on him. When you live on timing, anticipation, and trust in your passing game, you also die by it. He took accountability head-on after the game, but head coach Mike McDaniel signaled in his interview at the start of the second half that Hill wasn’t in the right place on the first interception.
Tagovialoa seemed to have regressed to locking into Tyreek Hill on Sunday instead of throwing to whoever the defense gave him.
To not forget, play calls are still coming in too late and don’t give Tagovailoa enough time to diagnose the defense and burned timeouts needed elsewhere. It’s time to either give up playcalling or simplify the verbiage.
Onto 2025
With this latest loss, fans are left saying “the same old Dolphins” like every other year since Y2K. The core of the Dolphins is still strong, and though it’s still kind of up in the air who will survive this offseason between general manager and head coach, my money is on this group taking one more crack at it with some roster changes.
Still, the same problems persist at the end of year three, such as play calling, self-inflicted wounds, injuries, especially to Tagovailoa, and their inability to beat playoff-caliber teams. Is it wise to think it’ll change in year four?
Their upcoming game against the San Francisco 49ers is a game I would consider against a playoff-caliber team, though they’ve had similar injury related issues leading to their 6-8 record, so Tagovailoa and the Dolphins could semi-repair their image with a statement win against them and follow it up with wins against the Cleveland Browns and the New York Jets on the road and likely in the cold.
The fat lady has not sung yet on the season since they technically have a shot at the playoffs, but she’s already warmed up her vocals and walked on stage. She’s just waiting for the music to hit.
