The seven scariest words any purple fan can hear
With the Detroit Lions losing to the Buffalo Bills in Week 15 NFL action, we can now begin using what might be the scariest seven words in football:
“The Minnesota Vikings control their own destiny.”
Yes, if the Vikings can defeat the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football and win out the rest of the way, the road to the Super Bowl will run directly through Minneapolis for the first time since 1998.
According to the ESPN playoff tool, if the Vikings and the Philadelphia Eagles both finish 15-2, the Vikings would end up with the tiebreaker advantage and the #1 seed in the NFC. How? Well, let’s examine the playoff tiebreakers.
The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record. The Vikings and the Eagles didn’t play each other this season, so we can skip that one.
The second tiebreaker is conference record. In a scenario where the Vikings and the Eagles both finish 15-2, they would each have a 10-2 record against the NFC, as they both swept their five games against AFC opponents. So that’s out.
The third tiebreaker is winning percentage in common games, with a minimum of four games necessary to make this tiebreaker applicable. In this scenario, their records would be the same at 5-1. Here are their common opponents:
- Green Bay Packers: Minnesota 2-0, Philadelphia 1-0
- New York Giants: Minnesota 1-0, Philadelphia 2-0
- Jacksonville Jaguars: Minnesota 1-0, Philadelphia 1-0
- Atlanta Falcons: Minnesota 1-0, Philadelphia 0-1
- Los Angeles Rams: Minnesota 0-1, Philadelphia 1-0
With that, we move on to the next tiebreaker, which is “strength of victory.” Using the playoff prediction tool from Pro Football Network, in the scenario detailed above where the Vikings and the Eagles both finish 15-2, Minnesota’s “strength of victory” is .443, compared to .421 for the Eagles. I’m guessing that owes to the NFC North being a stronger division than the NFC East.
In any case, the only team at this point that can stop the Minnesota Vikings from being the top seed in the 2024 NFC playoffs is the Minnesota Vikings. If they handle their business the rest of the way, they’ll get themselves a bye week regardless of what any other team in the league does.
And if I’ve just jinxed it. . .well, my apologies. But given the preseason expectations for this team, this is pretty great just to be talking about right now.
