PFF breaks down Week 15’s Sunday Night Football matchup by looking at both teams’ records, key trends, and a game overview before delivering the best bet backed by PFF’s trusted betting model.

Green Bay Packers (-2.5) vs Seattle Seahawks [Total: 46.5]

Game Overview

Sunday Night Football offers a high-powered matchup between two NFC teams poised to enter the postseason. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur told the media that he expects this matchup to have a playoff atmosphere, with both teams holding high positions in the NFC standings.

Seattle is holding onto the top spot in the NFC West by a thin margin. The Rams’ Thursday night win pushed them into striking distance of the division lead if the Seahawks falter.

Conversely, the Packers are fighting to maintain their wild-card positioning amid a tough stretch to end the year, competing in the NFC North — the strongest division in the NFL this season.

The Seahawks have been rolling since their Week 10 bye, with a 4-0 record against the spread and four straight wins as underdogs. Over this span, Seattle has allowed the lowest EPA per play in the NFL, thanks to an inspired secondary that has snatched five interceptions since Week 11 — tied for the most in the league.

On the other sideline, Green Bay is coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Lions, taking Detroit to the brink before falling to a field goal as time expired. That game resulted in a push on the three-point spread, snapping a two-game cover streak and giving the Packers a 2-4-1 ATS record over their last seven games.

The offense has performed well since Green Bay’s Week 10 bye, producing a top-tier EPA per play average. This is due to the strong play of both Josh Jacobs and Jordan Love in the run and passing games.

WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers: Under 3.5 Receptions (-185)

When it comes to dangerous vertical threats designed to stretch defenses, volume tends to be inconsistent. This holds true for Christian Watson, who has seen over 37% of his targets come on passes 20 or more yards downfield — a top-five rate among qualifying receivers.

While he has hauled in those deep passes at a solid 60.5% rate, it doesn’t support the level of volume implied by this line. Watson has recorded four or more catches in a game just three times this season. With Romeo Doubs set to return this week, Watson’s target share will likely dip as the offense spreads the ball to another receiving threat.

Additionally, the Seattle secondary has been tough against the deep ball, allowing receptions of 15 or more yards on just 11.4% of pass plays — the fourth-best rate among defenses this season.