Welcome to PFF’s first betting market update of bowl season.

This article will explain the factors that drive line movements in betting markets, helping you assess whether a change is an overreaction or underreaction to these market influences.

If you aren’t familiar, click here for a deeper explanation of what we aim to achieve each week with our NFL version of this article. For the Round 1 CFP version, click here.

Market dynamics are vastly different in bowl games and largely driven by transfer portal entries, player opt-outs and coaching changes. It’s common to see extreme swings in spreads and totals leading up to and even on gameday as surprise opt-outs are announced. One way to gain an edge in bowl season is handicapping teams’ motivation, which is more of an art than a science. 

An interesting wrinkle to keep in mind is that players who have entered the portal can still play in bowl games. This trend may become more common with recent developments of NIL and revenue-sharing. 

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl

Spread: After opening up at 9.5, the first move sent this line to 10.5. From there, it’s been all Western Michigan driving this number down. Uncertainty around the status of QB Gio Lopez (South Alabama) is playing a role. Portal-wise, the Jaguars will be without their most explosive running back and a key defensive back. The market is currently split between 7.5 and 8. 

Total: It was a quick slide down three points from the opener to 60.5. This number hasn’t moved much over the last two days.

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps)

MEMPHIS VS. WEST VIRGINIA

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl

Spread: Huge swing here with a nine-point move crossing through both key numbers of 3. Within 24 hours of opening last week, Memphis was already a small favorite. That movement has continued, and part of it is linked to Neal Brown being fired as the head coach at WVU. Newly re-hired Rich Rodriguez will not coach the bowl game. An interesting note is that WVU reportedly has close to 100% bowl participation despite the coaching change.

Total: The total market initially dipped before bouncing back up to and through the opening 58.5. Most books are at 59, but we’ve yet to see anything higher than that. 

Buy/Sell: I’ll sell the Memphis move and take the Mountaineers at +4.5 in QB Garrett Greene’s farewell game. This is a significant move considering reports that most of the team will play. 

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps)

Boca Raton Bowl

Spread: It’s been one-way action driving this line up on JMU through 7 and out to 9.5. We’ve yet to see a 10 pop up, but as you can see below, Western Kentucky has quite a few entries into the portal, including starting QB Caden Veltkamp. JMU won’t be at 100% either with QB Alonza Barnett out with an injury. 

Total: Not much here, with 52.5s across the board. This hasn’t fluctuated more than a point in either direction.

Buy/Sell: I’ll sell the JMU movement and lock in the Hilltoppers at +9.5. That’s a lot of points, and there’s a non-zero chance that Veltkamp and other portal entries will still play this game. If Veltkamp suits up, this number won’t be +9.5. 

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps)

Art of Sport LA Bowl

Spread: After opening at -1.5, Barry Odom’s departure helped move this line to as high as Cal -3.5. That number has since dropped and returned to the opener, with Cal set to be down starting QB Fernando Mendoza and potentially backup QB Chandler Rogers. 

Total: This is down one point from the opener and is 50.5 at nearly every book. 

Buy/Sell: I’ll buy in on the under at 50.5 with quarterback concerns and a deflated UNLV team narrowly missing the College Football Playoff, only just to lose its head coach. 

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps)

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Spread: A swath of Sam Houston State players have opted to enter the portal after losing their head coach. At this time, Georgia Southern has yet to see a portal entry from a player who took more than 100 snaps this past season. This line has pushed all the way to 7, but we saw some market resistance at that point. It’s since dropped to 6, and there are a couple of books that have moved to 5.5. 

Total: The market is currently split between 48.5 and 49. This total sat at 47.5 for a couple days before moving up a point.

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps)

OHIO VS. JACKSONVILLE STATE

StaffDNA Cure Bowl

Spread: With Rich Rodriguez taking the country road home, we’ve seen a couple of guys put their names in the portal. Ohio is also down its head coach, with Tim Albin taking the Charlotte opening. This line was moving as the Rodriguez speculation was heating up. It has pushed out and past 3, but we have seen 3.5 as a resistance point. Unless we see more player movement, I don’t think this one will get much higher.

Total: The total has fluctuated between 53 and 55 before settling at 54.5. There are still a couple of 54s.

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps)

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

Spread: It’s been all Gator money taking this from the opener of 8.5 to a two-touchdown favorite. Most of the movement here is tied to Tulane starting quarterback Darian Mensah already having committed to Duke from his short portal stint. This will be another building block for coach Billy Napier after a promising finish to the season, having played one of the toughest schedules in recent history. We have seen some buy-back on Tulane when the line hit 14.5. 

Total: The total has fluctuated as high as 52 and as low as 49 before landing back at the opening number of 50.5.

Current Portal Players (min 100 snaps)