Fantasy Football ‘24: 15 not-so-bold predictions

A look inside the fantasy football crystal ball

Labor Day weekend has come and gone, so I feel like I can finally say it: Welcome to the 2024 NFL season! You’ve drafted most of your teams, and now it’s time to lock in your Week 1 lineups and cross your fingers. Buckle up — one thing I’ve learned from playing fantasy football for 30+ years is that you never know what’s going to happen once the ref blows the whistle.

Before we get started, my Week 1 Fantasy Preview column, with my rides, fades, and sleepers, will publish this Thursday, right here at Big Blue View. It’ll be a weekly Thursday feature, and my Waiver Wire columns will run each Monday, starting next week. So keep it right here!

Today I’m going to share 15 not-so-bold fantasy football predictions for the 2024 season. Throwing down a few predictions is always fun, and there are no consequences for being wildly off-target with hot takes. But I’ll tell you what — if I’m wrong about more than half of these, you get your money back.

Last year, I didn’t get a single prediction wrong! But that’s only because I didn’t write a predictions column. I went back and looked at my not-so-bold predictions from the 2022 season, and I wish I hadn’t. What a mess. My first prediction was correct: That Deebo Samuel would regress after his massive 2021 season and finish outside the Top-10 WRs. My second prediction was that Kyle Pitts would lead all TEs in a bunch of stats (ugh)…and it went downhill from there.

So with all of that said, here are 15 fresh predictions for this season. They’re “not-so-bold” because they aren’t outlandish. I’d give each one at least a 30% chance of happening.

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1. Cooper Kupp will outscore Puka Nacua in all PPR and standard formats. I’m not alone on this one, and when discussing Kupp in my players to target column I noted that you can get him two or three rounds later than Nacua. Puka is dealing with a sore knee, and while Kupp is over 30, he appears to be fully healthy and his and connection with Matt Stafford is undeniable. Kupp won’t win the triple crown like he did in 2021, but I’m feeling a very big season from him.

2. Justin Jefferson will lead all wide receivers in targets and catches. Sam Darnold has scared away a lot of people. Were people really all that confident in rookie J.J. McCarthy making Jefferson the No. 1 WR again? Jefferson has shown in the past that he is QB-proof, and with T.J. Hockenson slated to miss significant time to start the season and Jordan Addison banged up and possibly staring at a suspension, who else is Darnold going to throw to? Jefferson’s volume is going to be nuts.

3. Malik Nabers will lead all rookie wide receivers in targets, catches, and fantasy points. I know, his QB is Daniel Jones. And this could be close with Marvin Harrison, Jr. and a few other rookies in position to start and be big cogs right away. I’ll still bet on Nabers, who’s going to be the focal point of the Giants’ passing offense, and looked uncoverable in camp.

4. Brian Thomas, Jr. will be the No. 1 fantasy scorer among the Jacksonville pass-catchers. I believe in the talent, and reports out of camp were glowing. While we are here, two other rookies not named Harrison or Nabers who I think have a legitimate shot at doing this on their respective teams are Keon Coleman and Ladd McConkey.

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5. Speaking of Thomas…Trevor Lawrence will have his first finish as a QB1 (Top-12). Lawrence has an ADP in the QB16-18 range, but I’m feeling a big bounce back from the disappointment of 2023. He had all kinds of bad luck and some injuries last season, and I think Jacksonville’s defense will be below average. The AFC South is full of teams that can score, and Jacksonville is one of them. Expect Trevor to be in his share of shootouts.

6. Jayden Daniels will outscore Caleb Williams, and finish the season as a Top-10 QB and the top rookie at the position. The rushing floor almost assures this if he can stay healthy. And that’s the bet – that he plays at least 15 games. While we’re here I’ll give you a bonus WR prediction: Terry McLaurin will finish as a Top-15 WR, and people will start calling him Scary Terry again. Last year, he couldn’t even have scare Shaggy and Scooby.

7. Will Levis will significantly outperform his ADP, and finish as a borderline QB1 in deeper leagues (14-18 teams). I’m all-in on the AFC South having four quarterbacks you can count on this season.

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8. Josh Jacobs will finish the season as a Top-5 RB. He did it once before (2022), on a much worse offense.

9. Derrick Henry, in his age 30 season, will have the best yards-per-carry average of his career (previous best: 5.4 in 2020). I think box safeties are going to have actual nightmares before they play Baltimore.

10. It will only take one week for Breece Hall to have more carries inside the 5-yard line than the ONE that he had ALL of last season. That actually happened, people. What the actual…The real prediction here is that Hall will lead the NFL in yards from scrimmage in 2024. Book it!

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11. At least three tight ends will have at least 100 catches this season (the last time more than one tight end had 100 catches in a season was 2020, when two did — if I had a research intern I’d be able to tell you with confidence that we’ve never had three tight ends go over 100 catches in the same season). We’ve also maybe never had this good and deep of a group of pass-catching TEs. Best bets: Evan Engram, Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta, Dalton Kincaid, Travis Kelce, and Mark Andrews.

12. Taysom Hill will finish the season in the top 12 in total fantasy points among TEs – but you’ll never know when to play him. If you’re riding the Taysom Coaster, don’t eat a big meal or drink any tequila before kickoff. You can thank me later.

13. Jason Sanders will lead all kickers in total points this season, followed by Ka’imi Fairbairn. Mark it down!

14. The Giants will finish as a Top-12 D/ST.

15. The Patriots will score the fewest offensive touchdowns in the NFL (this isn’t that bold, only the Jets scored fewer than the 23 they scored last season).

That’s that. I predict that the 2024 NFL season will be unpredictable. Good luck with your Week 1 matchups!