I conclude my series on the Minnesota Vikings division rivals with a closer look at the Chicago Bears.
Recap of the Bears’ 2023 Season
If running the ball well and stopping the run were what mattered the most in the NFL, the Bears would’ve been a good team last year. They ran it the second-most offensively, with the sixth-best yards per attempt, and allowed the fewest rushing yards and 5th lowest yards per carry defensively. But the NFL is a passing league and the Bears struggled offensively and defensively when the ball was in the air. They were near the bottom of the league in passing yards and passing yards allowed, and in yards per attempt and yards per attempt allowed. The one positive is they led the league in interceptions with 22 on the season.
Overall, the Bears ranked 18th in points and 20th in yards offensively, and 20th in points allowed and 12th in yards allowed defensively. They also ranked 31st in the red zone defensively, which explains the differential between points and yards allowed. They also ranked 29th in 3rd down conversions allowed but were 5th in takeaways.
In DVOA terms, the Bears finished 22nd in total DVOA at -7.1%. Offensively, they ranked 22nd at -6.5% and 17th defensively at +0.8%. Those stats suggest a slightly below average team overall and that was reflected in their 7-10 season record.
In terms of luck factors, the Bears were moderately unlucky, with a -54.6% net win probability added. They also ranked 9th in adjusted games lost due to injury, which is relatively fortunate in that regard, with just 50.5 AGLs last season.
As a baseline for the 2024 season, the Bears offensive in 2023 can be thrown out given the changes in personnel and coaching, but defensively 2023 remains a good baseline for the 2024 season.
Coaching Changes
The Bears moved on from Luke Getsy as offensive coordinator, replacing him with Shane Waldron. He was previously offensive coordinator for the Seahawks for three seasons and before that passing game coordinator for the Rams under Sean McVay. As such, Waldron runs a new-school West Coast offense with plenty of pre-snap motion and some newer concepts. But expect the Bears to be as pass-heavy as they’ve ever been, given the personnel changes since last season.
The Bears also changed defensive coordinators, replacing Alan Williams with Eric Washington. He was previously defensive line coach for the Bills for several years and spent many years as the Panthers defensive line coach before being promoted to defensive coordinator for his last two seasons in Carolina. I wouldn’t expect much change defensively for the Bears, however, as head coach Matt Eberflus is the de facto defensive coordinator and will continue to call the defensive plays this season.
Player Moves
The Bears completely transformed their offense over the off-season, moving on from Justin Fields and selecting Caleb Williams with the first pick in the draft, while also adding Keenan Allen and first-round draft pick Rome Odunze to D.J. Moore to create a formidable passing attack. The Bears also signed running back D’Andre Swift, who’ll be their new lead back.
Defensively, the Bears added safety Kevin Byard while extending top cornerback Jaylon Johnson in a big money deal.
Injuries
The Bears do not have any injured starters at the moment.
Schedule
The Bears have the easiest schedule in the division this season, drawing the Panthers, Commanders and Patriots based on division rank last season. A week seven bye isn’t too bad either. The toughest part of their schedule begins Week 11, with five division games in six weeks, along with the 49ers, and a three-game road stretch. Their first real test will be the Texans in Week 2. But overall the Bears have an easier schedule than the rest of the NFC North, which should help them.
- Week 1: Tennessee Titans
- Week 2: @ Houston Texans (Sunday night)
- Week 3: @ Indianapolis Colts
- Week 4: LA Rams
- Week 5: Carolina Panthers
- Week 6: Jacksonville Jaguars (London)
- Week 7: BYE
- Week 8: @ Washington Commanders
- Week 9: @ Arizona Cardinals
- Week 10: New England Patriots
- Week 11: Green Bay Packers
- Week 12: Minnesota Vikings
- Week 13: @ Detroit Lions (Thanksgiving)
- Week 14: @ San Francisco 49ers
- Week 15: @ Minnesota Vikings (Monday night)
- Week 16: Detroit Lions
- Week 17: Seattle Seahawks (Thursday night)
- Week 18: @ Green Bay Packers
Forecast for 2024
There is a wide range of outcomes this season for the Bears, given both a rookie quarterback with a less-than-ideal offensive line and a defense still missing some pieces. But Caleb Williams’ high-end potential is undeniable and he has as good a wide receiver trio as any quarterback could hope for. Williams is often compared to Patrick Mahomes for his off-script playmaking ability, but I believe Kyler Murray is the more apt comparison. Williams is a big-play hunter with the rare ability to make them happen, but also the fault for making them for the other team too. Williams’ turnovers in college are hardly mentioned, and yet often they accompany quarterbacks into the NFL. He didn’t have as many turnover-worthy plays per game as Sam Darnold (who also played at USC), including both turnover-worthy passes and fumbles, but he was up there. Kyler Murray, who has a similar style of play, also has had a lot of turnovers in Arizona. Williams also took a lot of sacks while at USC. We’ll see if he’s able to overcome those downsides, but there is definitely an explosiveness to his play style that can and probably will lead to a lot of big plays, particularly given three top receivers to throw to.
But the other downside offensively for the Bears is their offensive line. Apart from left guard Teven Jenkins, who is good not great, the Bears have average to mediocre starters across their offensive line. Opposing defenses will try to exploit this and pressure the rookie quarterback, rather than play coverage with Moore, Allen, and Odunze.
Defensively, there hasn’t been much change over last year. The Bears defense finished the 2023 season strong, but that was due mainly to generating 19 takeaways in the final 7 games which isn’t sustainable.
Overall, there is a wide range of outcomes for the Bears this season based on the volatility of having a rookie quarterback with a questionable offensive line but great receivers, and a defense that may not be much improved overall. But with an easier schedule and an improved team overall, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears finished close to the .500 mark and fighting for a playoff spot late in the season.
Current over/under win total odds for the Bears suggest a 9-8 finish is the most likely outcome for the Bears this year, and that is a fair assessment at this point.
