Can the Rams upset the Bills in Week 14? Here are this week’s keys to victory
The Los Angeles Rams got back to 6-6 last week with a win against the New Orleans Saints. However, their challenge gets much bigger in Week 14 as they take on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. A surprising win would set up the Rams well in the NFC West race heading into the final stretch. Here are this week’s keys to victory.
1. Get to Josh Allen with four and force him to play ‘hero ball’
Only Lamar Jackson has been better against the blitz this season than Josh Allen. It is imperative that the Rams get pressure on Allen and get to him with four. Allen is still one of the better quarterbacks against pressure and with no blitz. However, if Allen is given an answer by the defense leaving a gap due to an incoming blitzing player, the Bills quarterback will find it.
This is also not necessarily the Josh Allen of old in which he forces the ball when he doesn’t need to. Still, as seen with Matthew Stafford, that’s a mentality that never truly gets broken. The Rams need to force Allen into a spot where he feels like he has to make a play down the field or into tight windows. Before last week, Allen had thrown an interception in four straight games.
2. Finish drives on offense
It seems like this is the case every week for the Rams, but it is especially the case in this game. While the Bills defense is very good from an EPA standpoint, their success rate isn’t as high. For example, their overall defense EPA ranks eighth in the NFL while they are 12th in success rate. They are ninth in dropback EPA per play, but ranks 18th in success rate. To put it simply, the Bills overall defensive unit is good and they limit points. On a down-to-down basis however, teams have found success. The reason for this is that the Bills rank eighth in red zone defense.
The Bills defense has no problem giving up yards. In fact, they allow the 14th most plays per offensive drive. However, once teams get inside the 30, the Bills lock down and they only give up 1.83 points per drive which is the eighth-best. It would not be surprising to see the Rams move the ball with relative ease. The key here is finishing drives and avoiding mistakes.
3. Find room and create mismatches in the run game
The key to the previous key will be doing all of that in the run game. The Bills have allowed the third-most yards per play in the run game. However, they rank seventh in rushing success rate, sixth in EPA per rush allowed, and lead the NFL in stuff percentage. The Bills love to play defense out of nickel. They have the ninth-most snaps out of nickel this season. However, that means that there are going to be lighter boxes to run into.
For the Rams to find success in the run game, they have to remain committed to it and block it up. This season, the Bills have allowed a 58.5 percent success rate to man/gap runs in 12 personnel while allowing 2.58 yards BEFORE contact. While the Rams only have 29 carries this season in man/gap concepts out of 12 personnel this season, they have a 62.1 percent success rate on those runs. The question here is if the Rams can get the Bills out of nickel by going into 12 personnel.
4. Protect Matthew Stafford from the edges
During the opener in 2022, the Rams tackles really struggled blocking the Bills edge rushers. Joe Noteboom allowed eight pressures on the left side while Rob Havenstein allowed four on the right. To put it simply, Matthew Stafford had no chance to effectively throw the ball in that game..
This season, Greg Rousseau ranks seventh in the NFL with 50 pressures. Von Miller started the year strong, but has since slowed down. However, he’ll be motivated for this game. At the end of the day, the Rams have to be able to protect Matthew Stafford. When there is no pressure, the Bills defense is allowing the eighth-most EPA per pass. If the Rams can protect Stafford, he can make the Bills defense pay for it.
5. Take chances when they are available
The Rams aren’t going to beat the Bills by playing conservatively or not taking chances when they arise. This is not a game where the Rams can afford to turn the ball over after the defense makes a play like they did against the Dolphins. They can’t turn the ball over with a fumble when they’re about to set the tone like they did against the Eagles.
Heading into Sunday, the Rams are not going to be favored to win. That’s not to say that the Rams should play reckless, but when there is an opportunity to go for it on fourth down or when the offense is in position to score touchdowns, they have to take advantage. Defensively, if there is a chance to sack Josh Allen or make a play on the ball, they have to wrap up and take those opportunities.
