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NFL Week 14: Favorite player prop bets using PFF Key Insights
2YPE5NJ November 29, 2024: Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers (89) makes a catch for a first down during the second half against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. David Smith/CSM/Sipa USA (Credit Image: © David Smith/Cal Sport Media/Sipa USA) Credit: Sipa US/Alamy Live News
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• QB Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons — under 248.5 passing yards (-114 on FanDuel): The Vikings rank third in expected points allowed per pass play in their second season under defensive coordinator Brian Flores.
• TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders — over 69.5 receiving yards (-115 on BetMGM): The rookie tight end’s expected volume is about as safe as it comes this week. Tampa Bay has been susceptible to opposing tight ends, particularly in the slot, where Bowers has been targeted on 25% of his routes in 2024.
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Estimated Reading Time: 20 minutes
Key Insights were developed to help inform winning decisions, whether that’s betting a player prop or making a start/sit decision in fantasy football.
We’ve been tracking the results of logical bets associated with each insight, and in the spirit of transparency, the week-over-week results are included below.
| WEEK | WINS | LOSSES | WIN % |
| 1 | 8 | 19 | 30% |
| 2 | 25 | 19 | 57% |
| 3 | 19 | 28 | 40% |
| 4 | 20 | 13 | 61% |
| 5 | 16 | 16 | 50% |
| 6 | 28 | 27 | 51% |
| 7 | 31 | 20 | 61% |
| 8 | 32 | 21 | 60% |
| 9 | 44 | 30 | 59% |
| 10 | 30 | 35 | 46% |
| 11 | 29 | 32 | 48% |
| 12 | 27 | 39 | 41% |
| 13 | 37 | 36 | 51% |
| TOTAL | 346 | 335 | 51% |
As has been the case the past few weeks, all Key Insights can be found on PFF’s Player Profiles for players with an associated insight.
- Season-to-date record for all Key Insights: 346-335 (51%)
- Key Insights record since Week 4 (3+ weeks of 2024 data): 294-269 (52%)
QB KIRK COUSINS, ATLANTA FALCONS: UNDER 248.5 PASSING YARDS (-114 on FanDuel)
Cousins has been one of the higher-volume passers in the NFL, with 399 pass attempts on the season (10th most). It’s the efficiency in this matchup, however, that has me locked in on under 248.5 passing yards this week in his return to Minnesota.
