Week 14 best prop bets for Giants-Saints

Wagers to consider as you fill out your tickets

Welcome to the New York Giants betting angle, Week 14 edition! Each week, I’m giving you my three favorite wagers for that week’s New York Giants game. My one rule: I won’t ever give you wagers that are less than -120. No freebies here!

Things have gone from bad to worse for Big Blue this season, and not only have they lost seven straight to fall to 2-10, but they’ve started three different quarterbacks in their last three games, their best player just went on IR, and they could be significantly shorthanded on Sunday beyond Dexter Lawrence (more on that below). They’re staring at the very real possibility of losing all nine of their home games, in this, their 100^th season. This week’s game against the 4-8 Saints is their best remaining chance to win one for the home fans, and maybe even to win one, period.

The Saints opened the season with two blowout wins but the wheels have come off since then, due in part to a series of major injuries on offense. Derek Carr is back from his injury, but the team’s top two receivers (Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed) have both been lost for a long stretch and now do-it-all weapon Taysom Hill is out as well. Alvin Kamara is healthy though, and he could pose big problems for a shorthanded Giants’ defense that’s been gashed on the ground the past two weeks.

The line for this game is Saints -5.5, with a game total of 41.5. For the 13^th time in 14 games this season, the Giants are underdogs. In fact, they’ve only been favored once since Week 2 of last season.

Last week, I came within a half of a yard of going 3-0 for the second straight week. Oh well. 2-1 is still good, as is 5-1 over the past two columns. I’ll try to stay hot.

Let’s get to the picks. All lines and odds are from Fanduel and are as of Friday, December 6, at noon.

Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images

1. New York +5.5 (-115). I better check to see if I am feverish. Am I really taking the banged-up Giants, who are 2-10 overall, 0-6 at home, and 3-9 ATS? Gulp, yes I am. Full disclosure, I broke into a sweat as I typed in this pick, but even if the Giants are the worst team in the league, should the Saints be giving anyone 5.5 points, on the road and in the cold no less? The loss of Taysom Hill is significant, and I have a lot of trouble trusting Derek Carr with this kind of spread. The absence of defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence and linebacker Bobby Okereke is very worrisome given how poorly the Giants have defended the run the past two weeks, but I don’t think the team has quit and I expect them to show some heart. On offense, Drew Lock gets another start and the run game should have success against the Saints’ 26^th-ranked run defense, which is allowing 136 rushing yards per game. The potential absence of wide receiver Malik Nabers (hip) is significant, but they did win a game without him earlier in the season. This should be a low-scoring game and it might take a back-door cover, but I think Big Blue can stay close enough and even has a chance to win outright.

2. Game Total UNDER 41.5 (-120). Eight of the Giants’ 12 games have gone under, and I think this one will as well. We have a dome team traveling north to play outdoors in cold weather (temperatures are forecasted to be in the 40s), and that team is missing three of its top weapons on offense. On the flip side we have the offensively-challenged Giants who are dead last in the NFL with a scoring average of just 15.3 points per game, and who might be without star rookie Nabers. If there are defensive or special teams TDs then this bet could go sideways, but I don’t see this many points being scored otherwise.

3. Tyrone Tracy, Jr. OVER 62.5 rushing yards (-113). I’ve had pretty good success this season with Tracy props, so I’m back for one more. As noted above, the Saints have been bad against the run, and the Giants will need to pound the ball to have a shot at winning this game. Devin Singletary gets his opportunities, but Tracy is the lead guy, and assuming the Giants can stay in the game, he should hit this prop.

Those are the picks for Week 14. Good luck with your wagers.