A look at the Lions’ odds to win the NFC North and get a first-round bye after their win over the Packers.
The Detroit Lions’ win over the Green Bay Packers obviously had a pretty huge impact on the NFC standings. The Lions (12-1) hold onto the top spot for at least another week, as the Vikings (10-2) and Eagles (10-2) will now both have to win in Week 14 to stay a game behind Detroit.
It also had a profound impact on the NFC North, with the Lions essentially pushing the Packers out of reach in the division.
Let’s take a closer look at the playoff impact of Thursday night’s outcome by looking at the team odds and probabilities from various mathematical models.
For a look at the postseason odds prior to this game, check out this post from earlier in the week.
Detroit Lions’ playoff odds
NYT: 100%
DVOA: 100%
ESPN: 100%
Washington Post: 100%
Every model had the Lions at 99 or 100 percent last week, but with Thursday’s win, there is no need for probability models; the Lions are mathematically in—they have officially clinched a spot in the postseason.
Meanwhile, in case you’re curious, the loss didn’t really hurt the Packers’ chances at the postseason. The NFC is so top heavy that they’re still on the verge of clinching themselves. Most models still have them at 99% to make the playoffs.
Lions odds to win NFC North
NYT: 90% (+3%)
DVOA: 92.7% (+2.5%)
ESPN: 93% (+8%)
Washington Post: 97% (+5)
The Lions’ odds to win the division are up to the 90s, with the WaPo model being the most optimistic about Detroit’s chances. What’s also worth noting is that the Packers are nearly mathematically eliminated from winning the division. Each of these four models has the Packers’ chance at winning the division below one percent. Essentially, they’d have to have the Lions lose out, plus the Vikings would have to lose at least two of their last five games, while the Packers run the table.
Lions’ odds to win the NFC’s No. 1 seed
NYT: 84% (+17%)
DVOA: 82.4% (+8.8%)
ESPN: 79.7% (+11.7%)
Washington Post: 86% (+20%)
This win was huge for Detroit’s chances for a first-round bye, which now stand between 80-86 percent according to these models. Their biggest threat to the top seed remains the Eagles, who have anywhere between a 12-15 percent chance of overtaking the Lions.
