Fantasy Football ‘24: Week 14 fantasy preview—Start/sit and more

Welcome to Week 14! I needed to catch my breath after the wall-to-wall insanity that the NFL gave us over Thanksgiving weekend, which culminated on Monday night with the most Jameis Winston stat line of all time: 34-58-497-4-3, with two pick-sixes. Read it again. Six of his 58 passes resulted in TDs. Absolute legend. Jameis, his merry band of pass catchers, and the Broncos D/ST swung a whole bunch of fantasy matchups on Monday night to cap a wild weekend. And to think, Cleveland couldn’t score more than 18 points in any of the seven games started by Deshaun Watson. At least the Browns can get out from under his fifteen-ton contract. Oh, wait a sec…

Week 14 is upon us, and for most fantasy leagues it’s the final week of the regular season. At the same time, we’ve got the final six Byes to contend with. Talk about bad timing. So, we have a lot to get to. Here are some quick observations from Week 14, before we get started.

• The benching of second-year QBs Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson in favor of fossilized veterans Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco seems to have worked wonders in both cases, somehow.
• Remember early in the season when kickers couldn’t miss a field goal, including from long-range? Those days are over, friends. This past weekend, I felt like I was watching John Starks bricking 3-Point field goals (and everything else) in Game 7 of the 1994 NBA Finals.
• They say good teams find ways to win. The corollary is just as true. Fans of the Bears, Raiders, Panthers, and Jets know exactly what I’m talking about. Those were some brutal, “how did that happen” losses.
• It’s probably going to be a long, long time before we again see a man who weighs 300 pounds (and then some) going more than 90 yards for a pick-six TD. NextGen stats clocked Leonard Williams at 18 miles per hour!

Stats of the Week:

Three teams in the NFC North have nine or more wins, while zero teams in the NFC South are over .500 (again – this was a running NFC South bit each of the last two seasons).

Six of the Chiefs 11 wins have been decided on the final play of the game.

Lamar Jackson lost to an NFC team for just the second time in his seven-year career.

Saquon Barkley is averaging 7.5 yards per carry in the fourth quarter.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has eight TD catches on just 20 receptions. Trey McBride has zero TD catches on 73 receptions. Make it make at least a little bit of sense.

Malik Nabers surpassed Odell Beckham, Jr. for most catches through the first ten games of a career (75). Both players went to L.S.U. and were first round picks of the Giants. Puka Nacua and Brock Bowers are both in the Top-5 of the same list.

Jerry Jeudy leads the NFL in receiving yards (614) since Jameis Winston took over as the Browns’ QB in Week 8 (despite a Bye in Week 10).

In the first half at Atlanta, Justin Herbert had 115 passing yards, and 105 of those went to Ladd McConkey.

The 48 points scored in the first half of PIT vs. CIN are the most scored in a half of any AFC North game since divisional realignment (2002), and the most in any half in the history of the Bengals-Steelers matchup (110 games).

Guffaws of the Week:

The Bengals are 2-4 this season when scoring 33+ points. The rest of the NFL is 51-1 when scoring that much.

The Jets have been favored in nine of their first 12 games, and they’re 3-9. You guessed it, that’s an NFL first. I’m surprised the Jets haven’t done that before, honestly.

Kirk Cousins has zero TDs and six INTs over the last three games, all Atlanta losses. He also leads the NFL in both INTs and fumbles.

The Ravens’ five losses have been by a total of 22 points. In those five games, Justin Tucker has missed 22 points worth of kicks.

OK, Week 14, here we go!

Bye Weeks: BAL, DEN, HOU, NE, IND, WAS

That’s a lot of fantasy firepower sitting on the pine. In my Week 14 Waivers column, I listed my top streaming picks for this week at the “onesie” positions (QB, TE, PK, D/ST). Make sure you take a look.

Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Week 14 Rides, Fades and Sleepers

For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, Amon-Ra St. Brown, or Brock Bowers. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.

Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week. The rules are simple. The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week must be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.

The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers had a decidedly mediocre showing in Week 13 (and that’s being kind, it was my worst week of the season). I’ll try to do better this week. You can check my work here: Week 13 Preview.

Ride of the Week:

Chase Brown (@DAL). Since Week 9, guess who’s been the NFL’s No. 1 workhorse? Derrick Henry? Nope. Saquon Barkley? Kyren Williams? Devon Achane? Nope, nope, and nuh-uh. It’s Chase Brown, who has seen at least an 80% snap share (and an even higher running back touch share) in every game since Zack Moss when down. The Illinois product is the RB4 over that stretch, with a low output of 16.8 fantasy points. That kind of elite usage and high floor is what we in the business call fantasy gold. More good news: His team can light up the scoreboard, and stays in every game. They don’t often win, but they score in the 30s with regularity. All of that is great news for Brown, and while this week’s Monday night matchup at Dallas isn’t what ESPN was hoping for, it’s just fine if you’ve got the Bengals’ main running back on your roster. Dallas has allowed the third most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to opposing RBs, and they’re tied for the second most rushing TDs yielded to the position (14).

Fade of the Week:

Isiah Pacheco (vs. LAC). I commiserate. You waited all this time, and now he’s back. Two problems for his second game back: He’s sharing the work with Kareem Hunt, and the Chargers are a bad matchup. I do think Pacheco will eventually reclaim his workhorse role as the season rolls towards the finish and into the playoffs, but I think other backs will continue to see meaningful work and especially in the passing game. As for the matchup, the Chargers have allowed the fifth fewest FPPG to opposing RBs, and just three rushing TDs to running backs all season (tied with Atlanta for fewest in the NFL). If you start Pacheco, you’re banking on a score. I think he’s a tough start this week.

Sleeper of the Week:

Jordan Addison (vs. ATL). Addison has seen at least five targets in five straight games and has cashed three TDs in that stretch. In a week with so many players on Bye, I think he’s a nice option as your WR3 or Flex, or even your WR2 if you’re pressed. The Falcons are a Bottom-10 defense vs. opposing WRs and their lack of a pass rush will put added pressure on their secondary to stay with Minnesota’s talented weapons. I have a hunch Addison gets loose for at least one big play, and I think his ranking in the 30s this week is too low.

Quarterback:

Elite options this week – Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, and (making his debut in the “Elite” space) Baker Mayfield;

Rides:

Jordan Love (@DET). From a fantasy perspective, it’s been a strange season for Love. He got hurt at the end of the Week 1 game in Brazil, missed two games, and has been very good but not great since returning. He only has three weekly Top-10 finishes, but also only has two dud weeks, and for the season he’s the QB7 on a FPPG basis. This week’s matchup is a good one. The Lions have suffered several major injuries on defense, and Caleb Williams carved them up like a turkey on Thanksgiving, once he got going just before halftime. It’s an important divisional game and the Lions can score with anyone, so the Pack will have to push it to keep up. Detroit has decent numbers vs. quarterbacks but I think they’ll struggle to blanket Green Bay’s array of weapons in the passing game. The usual Thursday night “short week” concerns don’t apply, since both of these teams played on Thanksgiving. The 51.5 Vegas total is the highest of the week – points are coming! I love Love on Thursday at Detroit.

Sam Darnold (vs. ATL). Darnold has been a bit up and down this season, but when he has time in the pocket and can get comfortable, he’s very good. Atlanta’s defense has the fewest sacks and one of the lowest pressure rates in the league. The Falcons are reeling with three straight losses, and this is a tough road spot for them. They’re fairly stout vs. the run but have allowed the eighth most FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and the failure to get consistent pressure is a big part of that. Darnold has great weapons at his disposal and is a good bet for a Top-10 finish this week.

Russell Wilson (vs. CLE). Wilson is coming off the second highest passing yardage total in his career, and has been solid since taking over the starting job six games ago. He’s the QB14 over that stretch, but that includes a snow game against this same defense where it was very hard to pass. The Browns have been up and down on defense and Wilson should be in for a Top-12 type of day in a revenge game for Pittsburgh.

Other QBs inside the Top-15 this week who I think could beat their weekly rankings are Kyler Murray (vs. SEA) and Will Levis (vs. JAC).

Sleepers:

If you need a second QB in a Superflex, or you’re stuck with all those Byes, I think you can go with Geno Smith (@ARI), Derek Carr (@NYG), and Cooper Rush (vs. CIN).

Fades:

Kirk Cousins (@MIN). Revenge game? Doubtful. Cousins has been struggling mightily in recent weeks as noted above, and this defense on the road is not where you go to get well. Minnesota brings pressure (second in sacks) and causes turnovers (first in INTs, with 18) as well as anyone, but like most aggressive defenses, can also be had at times. I don’t think this version of Cousins and the Falcons is going to be able to take advantage of those opportunities. It’s also conceivable (albeit doubtful) that we could see Michael Penix, Jr. rob Cousins of potential garbage time stats if this game goes south in a hurry.

Brock Purdy (vs. CHI). The 49ers appear to be fading fast, and Purdy is coming off by far his worst game of the season (2.2 fantasy points). The injuries are piling up on both sides of the ball, and the losses of both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason will only make things harder on the offense. Sure, they can still be dangerous, but we haven’t seen much of that of late. The Bears will get to test the “new coach” theory this week, and regardless of whether it sparks them, their defense has been a tough matchup for opposing quarterbacks all season. They’ve allowed the second fewest FPPG and third fewest TD passes (11) to opposing quarterbacks. Even with all the Byes, Purdy is outside my Top-10 this week.

Aaron Rodgers (@MIA). Ick. There isn’t much to like here. Rodgers isn’t playing particularly well, rumors are swirling about his future (including for the rest of this season), the Jets keep finding new ways to lose, and Miami continues to be a tough matchup for opposing QBs. The Dolphins have allowed the third fewest FPPG to the position and that ranking has been pretty sticky throughout the season. Need more? We’re almost at the three-year anniversary of A-Rod’s last 300 yard passing game. Speaking of which, pass.

Others: Lower-ranked quarterbacks that I’d try to avoid in Superflex this week include Matt Stafford (vs. BUF), Bryce Young (@PHI, and yes he is playing much better but Philly’s defense is no joke), Mac Jones (vs. TEN), and Aidan O’Connell/Desmond Ridder (@TB).

Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images

Running back:

Elite options this week – Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams, Devon Achane, and Bijan Robinson; the analysis starts below them.

Rides:

Alvin Kamara (@NYG). There are a couple of trends to love here. After being a decent run defense for much of the season, the Giants have been gashed by opposing RBs in recent weeks. Rico Dowdle had a career day against them on Thanksgiving, and the week before, the Bucs’ running backs ran all over them and cashed in three rushing scores. Oh, and did I mention that Taysom Hill is out of the picture, and that Giants’ standout DT Dexter Lawrence is out, and starting linebacker (and defensive signal-caller) Bobby Okereke might miss this game, too? Kamara has a good shot to lead all running backs in scoring this week. Vroom, vroom!

Tyrone Tracy, Jr. (vs. NO). In the same game, I’ll ride with Tracy, who has been one of the very few bright spots during the Giants’ current 7-game losing streak. For years, the Saints were perennially a tough matchup for running backs, but that hasn’t been the case in 2024. They’ve allowed the fourth most FPPG to opposing RBs, and the fourth most rushing TDs (13). Devin Singletary still mixes in, but the Giants should stay in this game and that means Tracy should have a good outing.

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery (vs. GB). The Packers’ defense is good all around, but generally speaking, it’s tougher vs. the pass than the run. I’ve said it many times: You can start both Lions’ RBs with confidence and this week is no exception.

Others ranked inside the Top-24 this week who I think have a good chance to outperform their rankings are James Cook (@LAR), Najee Harris (vs. CLE), Bucky Irving (vs. LV, but monitor his practice reports and note that the Raiders have been much tougher vs. the run than you’d think), Tony Pollard (vs. JAC), Rico Dowdle (vs. CIN), and D’Andre Swift (@SF, and assuming he is good to go).

Sleepers: This is a tough week to find viable sleepers at the RB position. If you’re stuck (and with six Byes, some of you surely are), I think these backup running backs are worth a shot: Zach Charbonnet (@ARI), Rachaad White (vs. LV), Braelon Allen (@MIA), Tyjae Spears (vs. JAC), Tank Bigsby (@TEN), and Blake Corum (vs. BUF).

Fades:

Gus Edwards (@KC). I get it. When J.K Dobbins went to IR, this looked like one of those lottery tickets that hit. But Edwards has been inefficient this year, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry, and he has just two catches for three yards on the season. He should again lead the backfield in snaps and touches, but that won’t necessarily equate to fantasy production. He managed just 33 yards on seven total touches at Atlanta last week in his first post-Dobbins start, and this week the sledding is tougher. The Chiefs are the NFL’s No. 1 run defense, they’ve allowed the fewest rushing yards and the fewest receiving yards to opposing running backs, and unsurprisingly, they’ve yielded the fewest FPPG to the position. If you start Edwards, you’re going to need a TD to get any kind of return. I’m out.

Raiders’ RBs (@TB). Vegas has struggled to run the ball all year, and now there could be three RBs in the mix, assuming at least one of Alexander Mattison or Zamir White returns. I almost put Sincere McCormick in my sleepers after he ran well at KC last week, but I honestly have no idea how this is going to play out. If you want to take a shot on one of them, go ahead, but I’d only consider it if I was truly out of options.

More RB Fades: Chuba Hubbard and Jonathan Brooks (@PHI), and Kareem Hunt (vs. LAC).

Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images

Wide receiver:

Elite options this week –Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Tyreek Hill.

Rides:

Mike Evans (vs. LV). Evans is back, and with Chris Godwin out of the picture, he’s the very clear No. 1 option for Baker Mayfield. Evans needs to average just under 100 yards per game over the final five contests to continue his incredible streak of 1,000-yard seasons, and I think he’ll make it a point to get there. The Raiders are a pretty neutral matchup, but it won’t matter. Evans is a borderline Top-5 play in Week 14.

CeeDee Lamb (vs. CIN). It’s another obvious name, but Lamb is coming off of a two-catch game vs. the Giants and he hasn’t been producing at an elite level since the Dak Prescott injury. I think an effort will be made to get him more involved in this one. The Bengals get into shootouts left and right, and Dallas will need to push it to beat them. The Vegas total for this game is the second highest on the board.

Calvin Ridley (vs. JAC). Ridley has been inconsistent and hard to trust this season, and I’ve had him on the Fades list quite a bit (with good results). But the few good games he’s had have been very good and I like his chances to ring the bell this week, against one of the NFL’s worst defenses. Ridley has seen at least six targets in seven straight contests and that kind of usage is a good sign heading into this contest. Jacksonville has allowed the fourth most FPPG to opposing WRs.

Other receivers ranked from 12-30 that I think should outperform their ranking this week include: Jayden Reed (@DET), Drake London (@MIN), Malik Nabers (vs. NO), Jakobi Meyers (@TB), D.K. Metcalf (@ARI), Ladd McConkey (@KC), and Jerry Jeudy (@PIT).

Sleepers:

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (vs. JAC). I’ve been scared to go here, because the TD efficiency is insane, and untenable. Or is it? He has eight TDs in his last eight contests, and you already know how bad the Jaguars’ pass defense is. If you need to roll the dice, might as well roll it here. The same can be said for Marquez Valdes-Scantling (@NYG). If you need to swing for the fences this week, he’s the kind of player to roll with.

Other wide receivers ranked outside the top-30 this week that I think you can go with if you’re in need: Christian Watson (@DET, and especially if Romeo Doubs is out again), Amari Cooper and Khalil Shakir (@LAR), Keenan Allen (@SF), and Michael Wilson (vs. SEA).

Fades:

Deebo Samuel (vs. CHI). I’ll keep fading him until he gives me a reason not to. He hasn’t broken 11 fantasy points since Week 6 and over his last three games he has nine fantasy points, total. Nine! What gives? With your season on the line, do you want to bank on a throwback game? He could get more carries with all the running back injuries, but the matchup isn’t a good one in any case.

Garrett Wilson (@MIA). Wilson is another big name putting up small numbers. Since his 26-point bonanza against the Texans in Week 9, he hasn’t topped seven fantasy points in a game. Everything in this offense is hard to back right now, and the matchup is a problem to boot. Miami has allowed the second fewest receiving yards and the fewest FPPG to opposing WRs this season. And they’re tied for the fewest TD catches allowed to the position (seven).

Jaylen Waddle (vs. NYJ). Let’s stay right here. Outside of his big game two weeks ago (which was his only weekly Top-10 finish of the season), Waddle has been very quiet this season, as Jonnu Smith has emerged as a major target for Tua. Waddle has only broken 10 fantasy points twice this season and the Jets are a bad matchup for him to try to improve on that. Only his own team and the Bills have allowed fewer FPPG to opposing wide receivers.

Other Fades: Brian Thomas, Jr. (@TEN), Adam Thielen (@PHI), and Jameson Williams (vs. GB).

Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images

Tight end:

Elite option this week – Travis Kelce, Brock Bowers, and George Kittle; the analysis starts below them.

Rides:

Trey McBride (vs. SEA) and Jonnu Smith (vs. NYJ). I’m lumping these two together because they’ve both been major target hogs of late (with great efficiency on those targets), and you want to ride that wave. McBride has 12 catches in back-to-back games (on 27 targets) while Smith is coming off nine and ten receptions in his last two contests (on 22 targets). That’s 43 catches on 49 targets between them, in two weeks. Wow. That’s crazy volume for tight ends not named Bowers or Kelce. Smith is the TE1 over the last three weeks. Neither McBride nor Smith has a great matchup this week, but they should remain quite busy.

Cade Otton (vs. LV). Otton has cooled off considerably in the last three weeks, largely coinciding with Mike Evans’s return. That was predictable. Across his last three contests, Otton hasn’t topped 3.5 fantasy points. He’s got a decent chance to pop off this week against a Raiders’ defense that’s been surprisingly tough on running backs and wide receivers (and especially lately), but very generous to tight ends. Vegas has yielded the third most receiving yards, TD catches (seven) and FPPG to the position.

Will Dissly (@KC). Dissly is ranked as the TE12 this week and that may seem high for a player who put up a donut last week. Dissly was getting good target volume in the games leading up to Thanksgiving, and I think Justin Herbert will look his way enough times this week to make him a worthwhile start. Kansas City has allowed the most catches and yards to opposing tight ends, and the fourth most FPPG. I think he’s a Top-10 play in Week 14.

Other TEs in the Top-15 who I think have a good shot to outperform their weekly ranking this week: Sam LaPorta (v. GB), David Njoku (@PIT), and T.J. Hockenson (vs. ATL).

Sleepers:

Jake Ferguson (vs. CIN). After missing the last two games with a concussion, there’s optimism that Ferguson will be able to return this week and especially with the game being on Monday. If he does, it’s a soft landing, as the Bengals have been awful at defending tight ends. They’ve allowed the second most FPPG and TD catches (eight) to opposing TDs. Luke Schoonmaker has played well in Ferguson’s stead and could push for more playing time, but is only worth consideration if Ferguson can’t go.

Grant Calcaterra (vs. CAR). He didn’t do a whole lot in this offense the first time Dallas Goedert missed games, and he might not this time either. His matchup this week is as good as it gets, though. Carolina has yielded the most FPPG and TD catches (13) to opposing tight ends. This play has some risk and will come down to whether the Eagles need anything from their TE this week.

Other TEs ranked outside the Top-12 that I think can be considered this week if you need a dart throw at the position: Chig Okonkwo (vs. JAC), Juwan Johnson (@NYG), and Noah Gray (vs. LAC).

Fades:

Kyle Pitts (@MIN). Pitts was putting together a decent season until the wheels inexplicably came off four weeks ago, and he reverted back to the most maddening player in fantasy. If your season is on the line, are you really going to start a guy who has scored less than two fantasy points in three of the last four games (and fewer than eight in all four) and is coming off a bagel? Suit yourself.

Tucker Kraft (@DET). I get it, he’s had some really good weeks and has put up around ten fantasy points each of the last two weeks, which isn’t bad for a low-end TE1. And this Thursday night game definitely has shootout potential. The matchup scares me a little. For whatever reason, the Lions have been by far the NFL’s stingiest defense vs. tight ends. They’ve allowed the fewest catches, yards, and FPPG to the position, and are one of several teams that have yielded just one TD catch to opposing TEs. I’m not saying sit Kraft, but I’ll be surprised if you get a big game from him.

Other TE Fades (of players you could be considering): Noah Fant (@SEA) and Tyler Conklin (@MIA).

PK and D/ST Streamers (ranked outside the top-12): As noted above, see my Week 14 Waivers column.

That’s all I’ve got. Good luck punching those playoff tickets!

***This column appears each Thursday right here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly FanDuel Props of the week for the Giants, also right here. ***