Week 12 Colts Offensive Rankings and Analysis: Yeah, that works.

Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.

This drive chart encapsulates what I felt when watching this game. The Colts offense was either driving down the field and scoring or executing drives that lost yardage.

This was a run heavy game, so it limited the number of overall drives. With only 8 drives, 20 first downs is pretty good. The Colts earned an 80.0% Drive Success Rate (82nd percentile) and 4 redzone trips that all earned points, including 3 TDs.

Of course, on the 4 non-scoring drives, the offense accumulated a total of 2 yards, 2 turnovers and 0 first downs. So, yeah.

TEAM TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

25 points doesn’t scream top 5 performance, but when converted to a per drive basis, the Colts’ offense ranks 3rd on the week. Their DSR has a similar rank (6th), which means points came from steadily moving the chains as opposed to relying on huge explosive plays to eat up field position. That point is emphasized by the 5th ranked Success rate (adj TSR). However, the turnovers were highly negative plays that dropped the EPA per play rank all the way down to 18th.

One interesting number is the overall conversion rate which ranks 15th (1st/ply). When the conversion rate is significantly lower than the DSR it means it took more than the average number of plays to get those first downs. That again is a description of just steadily gaining yards to move the chains as opposed to big plays.

On the season, the offense improves their PPD number but still remain in 20th place. They are 23rd in DSR and DVOA ranks them 24th, so that all pretty much tells the same story.

PASS TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Anthony Richardson had a decent game with the 14th ranked EPA per dropback and the 8th best Passing Success Rate. That discrepancy in ranks is due to the 2 INTs that ate up a lot of EPA but only counts as 2 negative plays in PSR. Those numbers tell me he was consistently making positive plays, but stumbled on a few big ones.

He had difficulty moving the chains though, ranking 25th in 1st down conversion rate. That was primarily due to short completions combined with a low completion rate to result in low yardage per dropback. However, a couple of DPI calls really helped lift those numbers.

On the year, Colts passing ranks 18th in EPA/d and a lowly 26th in PSR. That means the team has relied on big pass plays to make up for their inconsistent success. That is risky strategy that could easily go south. DVOA has the Colts 20th in passing.

RUSH TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

The run game was the star of the show, providing the bulk of yards and first downs. The Colts run game had the 3rd highest conversion rate and the best 3rd down conversion rate of the week. They had some explosive plays and limited the negative plays which helped earn the 3rd highest EPA per carry.

By adj Rush Success Rate, I rank them 4th for the week and 18th on the year. DVOA says 15th and that’s OK by me.

CONCLUSION & LOOK AHEAD

This game was a marriage of capable passing with very good rushing. I would have liked AR to been a little better on the passes over 10 yards, but he dramatically improved his short passing, so I won’t complain any more . . . this week.

Next week is bye-week. WOOHOO!!, I need a week off.