Week 13 Colts’ Opposing QB: An analysis of Drake Maye

Thanks to the nflFastR project, Pro Football Focus and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the upcoming opponent QB has performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view).

The New England Patriots started the season with Jacoby Brissett under center, but that lasted only 5 weeks before they handed the reins over to Drake Maye. With a whopping total of 6 NFL starts, let’s see how Drake’s numbers stack up against other NFL starters.

HOW WELL?

His starts so far have been a mixed bag. He has had a couple of good games and a few not-so-good. On the whole, his top 4 stats, tend to cluster around the average to below average range.

HOW FAR?

His passing attempts have consistently been an the short side and completions have been even shorter.

He relies on YAC more than almost any QB.

TO WHO?

His top receivers are rookie 6th round draft pick Demario Douglas and veteran tight end Hunter Henry.

Kayshon Boutte is the only receiver that has a significantly high depth of target, but the resulting value of those targets is below average.

HOW ACCURATE?

Other than a few games, Maye’s accuracy has been pretty good, but his poor outing against Miami is dragging down his season average.

HOW FAST?

Time to throw has not been much of an issue, although when adjusting for depth, it looks like he holds the ball a tick too long.

TO WHERE?

He has been almost no threat past 10 yards.

DASHBOARD & CONCLUSION

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

• He has been supported by arguably the worst run game in the league, which may be why the Patriots lean on passing so much (32nd arsr, 6th edp)
• Maye has faced about average defenses, who show him about an average number of zone looks (20th opd, 13th oz%)
• He has seen a lot of pressure, which leads to a lot of abandoned pass plays (7th pr%, 6th aa%).
• While the pressure probably causes him to rush some throws, he still has an above average time to throw (11th). However, this extended ttt does not translate to deep attempts and his completions are very short (23rd adot, 28th ay/c).
• He has an average completion rate off of decent accuracy (19th cmp%, 18th cpoe). This leads to average YAC, which when adjusted for depth is actually a bit below expected (13th yac, 18th yacoe).
• Since his completion rate and YAC are about average, it is the short completions that lead to a poor yards per attempt (28th ypa).
• He handles pressure primarily by using his legs, but even with one of the highest scramble rates, he still takes a lot of sacks (2nd scr%, 10th sck%). This drags down his overall yardage efficiency (26th ny/d).
• He doesn’t get a lot of conversions from his pass plays, but still manages a decent TD rate (21st 1st%, 15th td%).
• He’s got a turnover problem (3rd to%), which is an anchor on his EPA efficiency (20th EPA/d) relative to his adequate Pasing Success Rate (16th).

An above average time to throw coupled with a short completion depth, means either he is not finding open receivers, or he is unwilling to throw to them. Either way, he is not a deep threat and since the run game is bad, that dramatically limits the New England offense.

71% of his attempts are within 10 yards (9th most) and 33% of his completions go to tight ends (3rd most). With minimal downfield threats, the Colts should be able to pressure Maye, while more aggressively guarding the sticks. As long as they keep everyone in front of him, then they should be able to keep the New England offense in check.