It all started when the Minnesota Vikings decided to part ways with Kirk Cousins after not agreeing to terms of a contract extension. Days later, on March 13th, the Vikings agreed to terms with Sam Darnold. It was a little discussed $10 million one-year deal viewed as filling a void and backup insurance policy for the Vikings soon-to-be first-round franchise quarterback of the future to be drafted at the end of April.
The Vikings drafted J.J. McCarthy and for the rest of the summer speculation centered on when McCarthy would be ready to start. Week one? After a month or so? At the bye-week? But Kevin O’Connell gave Sam Darnold all the first team reps throughout OTAs and minicamp and well into training camp as well. By early August O’Connell said that Darnold was his week one starter and they were preparing for that scenario. By mid-August and after McCarthy’s first preseason game, O’Connell said he may start to give McCarthy some first-team reps as well, but before that happened he went on IR with a knee injury and Darnold became the unchallenged starter for the season.
Expectations for Darnold were modest. ‘Sure, he’s got a better situation in Minnesota than in New York or Carolina, but he’s still Sam Darnold’ was a common refrain among pundits. The Vikings were expected to occupy last place in the NFC North with an over/under win total of 6.5.
But 5-0 games later, the narrative on Darnold and the Vikings changed. Darnold is good, so is the Vikings’ defense, and Kevin O’Connell was the clear favorite for coach of the year. Some were still waiting for Darnold to turn into a pumpkin and six white mice, noting he had a great early start in Carolina before going sideways.
And sure enough Darnold did go through a rough patch with bad games against the Jets and Jags in particular, with 5 turnovers in the Jacksonville and Indianapolis games. But once again he’s righted his ship and came back with his highest graded game of his career against the Titans according to PFF and his best back-to-back graded games since late in his rookie season.
The emerging consensus is that Darnold has indeed put his career back on track as a top ten draft pick and if he can continue on this track the rest of the season and playoffs, he’ll be positioned for a top-tier starting quarterback contract not unlike recent deals for Jordan Love and Jared Goff.
“Organizations Fail Young Quarterbacks Before Young Quarterbacks Fail Organizations”
That quote from Kevin O’Connell, a former failed young NFL quarterback himself, resonated with a lot of quarterbacks thrust onto the field with poor coaching and supporting cast playing for bad teams amid ongoing organizational drama and chaos.
Combine that with O’Connell’s personal experience as an NFL quarterback, and J.J. McCarthy saying that every one of the first-round quarterbacks picked in this year’s draft wanted to play for O’Connell (and the Vikings’ supporting cast), and now the successful reclamation of Sam Darnold, and suddenly the Vikings are the go-to team for first round quarterbacks in need of reclamation.
The Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, and Las Vegas Raiders were all interested in signing Daniel Jones. The first three at least are top-tier organizations. But Jones chose the Vikings and didn’t wait long to do so. It wasn’t a question of money- Jones is still being paid by the Giants and was willing to sign on the Vikings practice squad for pocket change- it was a question of which team will give him the best chance to resurrect his career.
At this point, the Vikings under Kevin O’Connell are far-and-away the top landing spot for quarterbacks who have a choice of where they want to sign. Even Kirk Cousins, who chased the money to Atlanta, may have some regrets about leaving Minnesota- who knows.
What It Means Going Forward
Whether or not Daniel Jones is able to take a similar path as Sam Darnold in fulfilling the potential of a top ten drafted quarterback remains to be seen- not every quarterback reclamation project will end in success- but the Vikings and Kevin O’Connell’s interest in developing first-round quarterbacks that weren’t successful with the team that drafted them seems genuine and more importantly he seems to be good at it.
That ability, and having a good supporting cast, carries tremendous value in a league where there is a persistent shortage of top-tier quarterbacks, not to mention capable backups.
But there is no shortage of first-round busts. Half of the quarterbacks chosen in the first-round don’t work out for the team that drafted them. Some of those may be salvageable. Maybe Anthony Richardson or Byrce Young become Vikings down the road. Who knows.
At a minimum, the Vikings may benefit from having more capable backups and compensatory picks for turning around failed first rounders as they land new contracts. Of course, the problem there for the Vikings is they need to have playing time to get a big-time deal and that may not be possible going forward. The Vikings do have J.J. McCarthy after all.
Further down the road, however, Kevin O’Connell’s ability to develop quarterbacks may lead to an interesting dilemma. Let’s say J.J. McCarthy becomes a successful starting quarterback- top ten at least. Do the Vikings pay him when his rookie deal is over? Trade him? Or do they take on another young quarterback on a cheap deal that allows them to maintain the strong supporting cast necessary for quarterbacks to succeed in the league?
Top quarterback contracts account for around 20% of the salary cap these days. Half the Vikings’ defensive starters take up less than the $55 million top quarterback deals are worth these days. The entire starting offensive line takes up less too.
But let’s get back to Sam Darnold. Let’s say he takes the Vikings deep into the playoffs- conference championship or beyond. Will he chase the money like Kirk Cousins? Will he get a top-tier contract offer? There is the Case Keenum example and other teams may question how well Darnold will do with another organization that may not have the coaching and supporting cast the Vikings have.
I suspect Darnold will not chase the highest offer if it’s with a bad team/organization, given his past experience. My guess is he would be happy to sign a big deal with his hometown Rams if they decide to move on from Matthew Stafford, but beyond that he may not want to sign with other potentially QB-needy teams in New York, Las Vegas, Tennessee, Indy, Carolina, Cleveland. Seattle could potentially be a fit if the Seahawks want to move on from Geno Smith.
But there’s also the chance that if he takes the Vikings deep into the playoffs, that they offer him at least a medium deal or franchise or transition tag him. They could also tag-and-trade him.
There are two types of franchise tags: exclusive and non-exclusive. The estimated salary for both for 2025 is around $41 million. Exclusive means just that. No teams are allowed to make offer sheets. The non-exclusive tag allows for other teams to make offers for Darnold, which the Vikings could choose to match or receive two first-round picks as compensation if they don’t. Then there is the transition tag, which includes an estimated salary of around $35 million for 2025. That allows the Vikings to match any competing offer for Darnold, but the Vikings get no compensation if they choose not to. Lastly, the Vikings could use the exclusive franchise tag on Darnold, then trade him for something other than two first-round picks. Or they could transition tag him and choose not to match a competing offer for the right compensation.
My guess is that if Darnold takes the Vikings deep into the playoffs, the Vikings could decide to take one of these tag routes with Darnold. If the Vikings get more than a 3rd round pick in 2026, which is what they’d likely get as a compensatory pick if Darnold signs a $30+ million deal with another team, they would come out ahead if they ended up trading Darnold or getting an offer on a non-exclusive tag. Keeping Darnold, if no suitable offers are made, might also work for the Vikings at the franchise or transition tag price for another year.
Bottom line, the Vikings will have options- and compensation- they may not otherwise have without the ability to reboot a quarterback like Sam Darnold who was always a bridge quarterback for the Vikings.
Next Up: Daniel Jones
The situation with Jones is likely to evolve into one where he is the backup to J.J. McCarthy next season if Sam Darnold moves on. He’ll provide another opportunity for O’Connell, QB coach Josh McCown, and assistant QB coach Grant Udinski to redevelop a former first-round quarterback into something closer to a top starting quarterback. For Jones, his journey through Minnesota may be more like Darnold’s season in San Francisco- a year-long hiatus out of the spotlight and a chance to improve his skillset without any pressure to perform.
There may be less of a benefit for the Vikings if Jones later signs with another team looking for a starter or at least a bridge starter, as Jones would be the backup to J.J. McCarthy and presumably would not get much playing time unless McCarthy struggled or was injured. Still, the Darnold example might help Jones land a contract north of the $10 million Darnold got with the Vikings, which would yield the Vikings a decent compensatory draft pick- perhaps even a third or fourth rounder.
In the meantime, the Vikings will have an experienced backup who is likely to perform better than he did in New York simply by virtue of better coaching and supporting cast, if called upon.
The Packers once had a quasi-policy to always draft a quarterback with the idea that learning under Aaron Rodgers would ultimately help him succeed and they could trade him later for a better draft pick. That didn’t really work out, but the Vikings looking to rehab first-round picks may have a better chance of success. First-round quarterbacks have a top skillset in terms of arm talent, physical traits, and mental toughness to play the position, but often don’t succeed because of poor coaching and supporting cast at the next level. O’Connell and Company have as good a background as you could want in identifying issues and coaching what is important for success in the NFL.
We’ll see how things play out down the road, but the Vikings’ nascent strategy of signing first-round cast-off quarterbacks could prove to be a valuable one for the team, even if J.J. McCarthy lives up to his potential as a top starting quarterback for the Vikings.
Stay tuned.
Follow me on X and Bluesky @wludford
Poll
Will Daniel Jones turn his career around after a stop with the Vikings?
-
0%
Yes
(0 votes)
-
0%
No
(0 votes)
0 votes total
Vote Now
