How bad will the Rams really miss Ernest Jones?

L.A.’s 3-4 scheme makes middle linebacker a plug-and-play position

When the news broke that the Los Angeles Rams were in trade talks to move starting middle linebacker Ernest Jones, it lit a firestorm of Rams fans protests, approvals, and opinions. Two days later, he was gone, traded with a draft pick for another draft pick two seasons into the future.

Who now steps into the void and takes over for Jones, not just as the starting middle linebacker, but as the defensive unit’s green dot wearer, denoting captain and play caller?

Rams coach Sean McVay didn’t waste any time, naming Christian Rozeboom and Troy Reeder as the starting linebackers. New Defensive Coordinator said that Reeder will take over the “Mike” role, which makes him the front runner to wear the green dot, denoting the L.A. defensive play caller. While both have a history of starting games for the Rams, their forays outside the Rams roster haven’t been particularly successful.

Last year, Rozeboom had five starts and 550 snaps, but back in 2021 final cuts, the Rams released him and the Kansas City Chiefs signed him. Two month’s later KC waived him and the Rams re-signed him. Reeder has 21 starts and 1594 snaps over two stints in L.A. After starting in the Rams Super Bowl LVI win, he was not offered a contract and bounced between the Minnesota Vikings and L.A. Chargers before re-joining the Rams last September.

On its face, the loss of Jones should leave a huge hole in the Rams defense. A case could be made that he was former Defensive Coordinator (DC) Raheem Morris’ attacking chess piece and the defense was centered around him. He was moved all around the formations and was a major component of L.A.’s blitz attack, whether real or simulated. He stacked two solid seasons of over 100 tackles to go along with 4.5 sacks and 16 pressures.

But will replacing Jones on-field production be as hard as many think?

It could be a small downgrade, but not near as much as many would think. Why? This article is not gong to center on who are the better players, but rather on the Rams 3-4 base scheme. I believe the Rams scheme is either the hero or villain, depending how you feel, when evaluating the L.A. linebackers. The production numbers have run similar from Alec Ogletree, back in 2017, to Ernest Joes last year. A few higher, a few lower, but generally speaking, in the same vein.

The 3-4, 4-3 under, or 5-2 Okie, no matter the nomenclature, has been the basis of the L.A. defense since Sean McVay took over in 2017. It was introduced by DC Wade Phillips. His version did a little more attacking on the front line, but having a player like Aaron Donald makes it a must to build around his skillset. HIs inheritors all brought their own twists, Brandon Staley was more of a Vic Fangio traditionalist, Raheem Morris mixed in some old Tampa2 and Cover3 from his past, and now, fans won’t have to wait much longer to see what Chris Shula’s version looks like.

No matter how you put your own marks on the 3-4, the basic concepts of two-high coverage shells and light boxes are meant to lure opponents into run plays. Interior defensive line players are tasked to read/react to blockers and clog gaps, keeping the linebackers free to come up and make tackles. Generally, linebackers tally high tackle stats.

In his seminal article ‘The Book of Fangio’, Shawn Syed gives a thorough look into the 3-4 defense and explains the scheme, from basics to advanced theory.

“Generally, runs are less efficient than passes. Encouraging a team to run into a seemingly attractive look can help set the defense up for a 3rd and long. Defensive linemen are asked to eat up double teams and play with moveable leverage to keep linebackers clean…”

On the role of linebackers in the 3-4, Syed said,

“Stylistically, the linebackers are often kept clean from double teams by the defensive line while also being asked to get depth in pass coverage. In pass coverage, having a linebacker that is athletic enough to play man coverage with faster-running backs is an essential part of coverage flexibility.”

What the numbers say

According to Pro Football Reference: pd=passes defended, fto=forced turnovers, btz= blitz attempts, sk=sacks, prss=QB pressures

2017 – Total plays 555 pass, 418 run

Alec Ogletree – 95 tackles in 923 snaps 10.29%

10 pd, 2 fto, 2 sk,

Mark Barron – 86 tackles in 825 snaps 10.42%

4 pd, 3 fto, 1 sk

2018 – 533 pass, 386 run

Cory Littleton – 125 tackles in 964 snaps 12.96%

13 pd, 73.4 com%, 3 fto, 58 btz, 4 sk, 8 prss

Mark Barron – 60 tackles in 570 snaps 10.52%

1 pd, 59.5 com%, 1 fto, 8 btz, 1 sk, 1 prss

2019 – 562 pass, 444 run

Cory Littleton – 134 tackles in 1039 snaps 12.89%

9 pd, 71.8 com%, 4 fto, 64 btz, 3.5 sk, 7 prss

Troy Reeder – 58 tackles in 298 snaps 19.46%

2 pd, 94.1 com%, 2 fto, 3 btz, 0 sk, 0 prss

2020 – 548 pass, 388 run

Troy Reeder – 81 tackles in 423 snaps 19.14%

2 pd, 76.9 com%, 0 fto, 15 btz, 3 sk, 4 prss

Micah Kiser – 77 tackles in 558 snaps 13.79%

3 pd, 62.0 com%, 1 fto, 30 btz, 0 sk, 2 prss

Kenny Young – 52 tackles in 471 snaps 11.04%

2 pd, 82.1 com%, 1 fto, 16 btz, 1 sk, 2 prss

2021 – 625 pass, 443 run

Troy Reeder – 91 tackles in 681 snaps 13.36%

6 pd, 80.7 com%, 2 fto, 18 btz, 2 sk, 5 prss

Ernest Jones – 61 tackles in 440 snaps 13.86%

4 pd, 74.4 com%, 2 fto, 20 btz, 1 sk, 3 prss

2022 – 556 pass, 455 run

Bobby Wagner – 140 tackles in 1080 snaps 12.96%

5 pd, 68.8 com%, 2 fto, 49 btz, 6 sk, 10 prss

Ernest Jones – 114 tackles in 723 snaps 15.76%

2 pd, 79.2 com%, 2 fto, 13 btz, 0 sk, 2 prss

2023 – 604 pass, 433 run

Ernest Jones – 145 tackles in 934 snaps 15.52%

6 pd, 70.8 com%, 0 fto, 58 btz, 4.5 sk, 14 prss

Christian Rozeboom – 79 tackles in 550 snaps 14.36%

4 pd, 79.6 com%, 1 fto, 19 btz, 0 sk, 2 prss

Conclusions

Shula came west with Sean McVay in 2017, so he has worked under all the Rams DC’s and he’s also best friends with Brandon Staley. Will he lean towards the more-traditional Fangio-style looks that his BFF prefers, the sim/blitz-heavy hybrid of Morris, or Son of Bum’s attacking style?

As far as the linebackers production is concerned, it won’t matter that much. Their roles are baked-into-the-cake. Of course, how each season plays out has some effect on the individual player’s stats. But as you can see from the year-to-year numbers when all grouped together, it doesn’t matter if the player is unheralded or highly touted, there is little space between them on posted production.

Reeder and Rozeboom are known commodities. As starters, they have their faults, but when put into action in the past, have shown they can play. Jake Hummel has flashed, albeit in preseason, that he can both cover and tackle in space. Although it is likely that Omar Speights and Eli Neal are to be brought along slowly, both were tackle machines in college and played very aggressively in preseason.

In closing, While I don’t know which side to believe as to why Ernest Jones could not finish out his contract in L.A., I do believe that whoever takes his place will provide similar production due to the Rams 3-4 base defensive scheme.