• The Packers’ secondary may halt the Dolphins’ momentum: Headlined by Xavier McKinney’s incredible 89.9 PFF coverage grade and league-leading seven interceptions, Green Bay’s backend is risky to pick on.

• Terrion Arnold faces a massive test against the Bears: Arnold has struggled in coverage this season, earning a 51.7 PFF coverage grade, but his presence is critical for the secondary’s success against D.J. Moore and company.

• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!

Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes

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CHI@DET | NYG@DAL | MIA@GB

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions (-9.5)

Storyline of the Game: Detroit looking to shuck Thanksgiving struggles

Thanksgiving Day starts with a classic NFC North showdown as the Lions host the Bears. Detroit is playing like the hottest team in the NFL, enjoying its best start since 1934. They boast the most complete squad in the league, standing as the only team to hold a top-three PFF grade in all three phases: offense (86.4), defense (82.5) and special teams (90.2). This presents head coach Dan Campbell with a golden opportunity to secure his first Thanksgiving victory after an 0-3 record during his tenure in Detroit.

The Bears continue to struggle despite some bright spots. The shift to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown has brought positive results for first-year quarterback Caleb Williams, but the team’s five-game losing streak underscores their mounting issues. Even when the Bears catch a break, it seems to slip away. This past week, Chicago stormed back from an 11-point deficit with just two minutes left, converting a late touchdown, two-point conversion, onside kick recovery and game-tying field goal — only to fall short in overtime.

Matchups to Watch: Bears WR D.J. Moore vs. Lions CB Terrion Arnold

Moore played hero for the Bears’ offense last week, catching all seven of his targets for 106 yards, a late touchdown and a critical 2-point conversion that kept the team alive with less than 30 seconds remaining. His clutch performance earned him a season-high 74.1 PFF receiving grade. For the Bears’ offense to flourish down the stretch, keeping Moore heavily involved early and often will be key.

Meanwhile, the Lions are expected to get first-round rookie cornerback Terrion Arnold back for this matchup after he missed Week 12 with a groin injury. Arnold has struggled in coverage this season, earning a 51.7 PFF coverage grade, but his presence is critical for the secondary’s success. Without him, the Lions turned to Kindle Vildor in Week 12, and it was a disaster. Vildor earned a 27.7 PFF coverage grade, the lowest of any defender last week, highlighting the importance of Arnold’s return.

Additional News:

• Lions LT Taylor Decker (knee/ankle) left and could not return in the team’s Week 12 matchup. His status remains unclear on a short week.

• Lions RB David Montgomery (shoulder) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (knee) appear to be progressing toward playing this week after limited practices.

• Bears QB Caleb Williams broke the franchise single-season rookie passing record, surpassing Mitchell Trubisky’s 2,193 passing yards set in 2017.

• Detroit waived edge defender James Houston.

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)

Storyline of the Game: Fallout from Daniel Jones‘ benching continues

The Daniel Jones era in New York has officially come to an end. The veteran quarterback requested — and was granted — a release following a demotion to the scout team, where he had been tasked with playing safety. To complicate matters further, Jones’ replacement, Tommy DeVito, is listed as questionable for this week after missing Friday’s practice, potentially leaving Drew Lock as the starter — marking the Giants’ third quarterback in as many weeks.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys appear to have turned a corner just as their season looked bleakest. In Week 12, Dallas snapped a five-game losing streak with a road victory over the Commanders, their first win since Week 5. Much of the credit goes to the Cowboys’ special teams unit, which accounted for two fourth-quarter touchdowns. The highlight was KaVontae Turpin’s dazzling spin move on a punt return touchdown, followed by Juanyeh Thomas taking an onside recovery to the house.

Matchups to Watch: Giants WR Malik Nabers vs. Cowboys CB DaRon Bland

Nabers didn’t hold back when addressing the team’s performance after last week’s blowout loss at home, calling the effort “soft” and dismissing quarterback play as the root issue, stating, “same outcome when we had [Daniel Jones] at quarterback.”

Despite the dysfunction surrounding the offense, the rookie receiver has consistently excelled, earning a top-20 PFF overall grade at the position (79.3). However, Nabers struggled without Daniel Jones under center, posting a noticeable drop in his receiving grade to 60.0 with Tommy DeVito at quarterback. Now, he may face even more uncertainty with the potential for yet another signal-caller throwing him the ball this week.

On the defensive side, the Cowboys received a significant boost with the return of last season’s interception leader. Bland, who missed the first 11 games of 2024, slotted back into the lineup in Week 12 and delivered an impressive 77.5 PFF coverage grade. His presence provided the spark Dallas needed to slow down Jayden Daniels, one of the league’s top young quarterbacks. Bland allowed just one open target while limiting opponents to 0.82 yards per coverage snap.

Additional News:

• Cowboys owner Jerry Jones commented on the possibility of giving head coach Mike McCarthy an extension.

• QB Daniel Jones cleared waivers and signed with the Vikings.

• Giants QB Tommy DeVito (forearm) is dealing with soreness in his throwing arm. His status is unclear on a short week.

Storyline of the Game: Miami and Green Bay are rolling after Week 12

The Packers and Dolphins come into the holiday festivities with wind in their sails, looking to build on recent momentum.

It’s easy to point to the resurgence of the Dolphins‘ offense as a key to their turnaround, but the more impressive effort may reside on the other side of the ball. Through the first seven weeks, Miami ranked 21st in PFF defensive grade (63.9) but has since skyrocketed that mark into the top four, with Anthony Weaver’s defense holding a 71.2 PFF grade since Week 8. It’s a credit to the effort put forth by Chop Robinson, Jalen Ramsey and Jordyn Brooks, among others.

Conversely, the Packers have found ways to win close games in recent weeks, capturing three victories by three or fewer points over their past five outings. Luckily, Week 12 featured a decisive win in which Green Bay dismantled the Brock Purdy-less 49ers with excellent performances on both sides of the ball.

Matchups to Watch: Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa vs. Packers safeties

Tua Tagovailoa‘s return to the helm of the Dolphins‘ offense has Miami surging through the back half of the schedule. Since Week 8, the team holds the fourth-highest EPA per play mark in the NFL. While Tagovailoa has racked up the fifth-most passing yards and touchdowns over that span, he holds a modest 71.3 PFF passing grade — good for 24th among qualifying passers — largely because of his turnover luck. Although he’s tallied just a single interception since Week 8, he has racked up six turnover-worthy plays — the fifth most at the position.

Putting the ball in danger could spell disaster against a Packers secondary that boasts some of the league’s best safety play. Headlined by Xavier McKinney’s incredible 89.9 PFF coverage grade and league-leading seven interceptions, Green Bay’s backend is risky to pick on. Rookies Evan Williams (ranks seventh in coverage grade) and Javon Bullard (coming off the highest-graded game of his career) could help spoil Miami’s day.

Additional News:

• Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel reportedly vetoed a trade deadline deal that would have sent DI Calais Campbell to Baltimore.

• The Dolphins waived S Marcus Maye.

• EDGE Shaq Barrett, who announced his retirement in July, has applied to be reinstated. His contract rights remain with Miami.