Does Les Snead deserve more criticism for free agent signings?

To say the least, the Los Angeles Rams have not receiving a lot of value from their 2024 free agent class. The Rams signed players like tight end Colby Parkinson and offensive lineman Jonah Jackson, but have not necessarily gotten what they expected. While it’s not the reason, the lack of a strong free agent class after spending the money the Rams spent has certainly been felt.

Naturally, this has put a lot of eyes on Les Snead and the pro-scouting process within the Rams’ structure. Snead has mostly been a good general manager, but the last two high-spending free agent windows have left a lot to be desire.

The primary reason for cutting and trading players like Jalen Ramsey, Leonard Floyd, and Bobby Wagner was to reset the salary cap so that the team could spend money in 2024 and 2025 to make a push at a Super Bowl title. However, if the Rams don’t sign the correct players, all of that would have been for naught.

While Snead has done well over the last two years in the draft, there’s a lot more risk involved when it comes to free agency due to the money and contracts involved. The Rams were smart with contracts in this year’s free agent class, limiting guaranteed money in future years. Still, there is dead money involved if the players are cut and at the end of the day, it is ultimately better if the player succeeds.

Snead has been the general manager for the Rams since 2012 under two different head coaches. At this point, he has a long record of free agents that he’s signed as part of the organization.

To analyze this, we’ll break it down into the two eras as that only seems fair. It’s unclear how much personnel control Snead had during the Fisher era. Given players like Cortland Finnegan, Jared Cook, Kenny Britt, and Coty Sensabaugh all featured as signings under Fisher, it’s likely that the head coach had significant say.

Finding the value of a player to the team while also taking into account the contract that they signed can be difficult. To do this, I’ll primarily use the approximate value rating via Pro Football Reference. Approximate value is an attempt to put a single number on the seasonal value of a player at any position from any year. That number will then be divided by the total contract amount signed to get an approximate value per million dollar spent.

The issue with that formula is that players with lower contracts that succeeded are going to be weighted heavier. Therefore, I’ll also use Pro Football Focus’ player ratings to see how the player performed under the contract. It’s worth noting that I am only looking at how the player performed under the initial free agent contract signed. Additionally, these are only players that were signed during the offseason free agent period. Therefore, Odell Beckham Jr. and Baker Mayfield will not be considered free agent signings.

Snead’s Free Agent Signing During Jeff Fisher-era

The free agent signings during the Fisher-era by Snead certainly comes with its share of notable mistakes. One of the big initial free agent signings under Fisher was cornerback Cortland Finnegan. Finnegan is arguably the worst free-agent signing by Snead.

Jake Long was another big signing prior to the 2013 season. The Rams were looking for a left tackle to finally fill the void left by Orlando Pace. To protect Sam Bradford’s blind side, Snead signed Jake Long to a large contract. However, injuries took a toll on Long and he wasn’t the elite left tackle that he was early in his career with the Miami Dolphins. He was also partially responsible for Bradford tearing his ACL during the preseason in 2014. Long for the most part performed admirably as suggested by his PFF grade. With that said, the Rams did not get what they paid for due to injuries impacting his performance.

Looking at some of the better contracts, the Rams signed wide receiver Kenny Britt prior to 2014. During that season, Britt had 48 receptions for 748 yards and three touchdowns, earning a second contract. Britt would go on to break the Rams 1,000-yard receiver drought in 2016. Jo-Lonn Dunbar also played a big role on the Rams defense in 2012, making him another extremely valuable free agent signing.

During the Fisher-era, the Rams signed 16 free agents and out of those players, seven of them out-performed their contract from a value standpoint. Still, most would only consider five of them to be ‘hits’. From 2012-2016, the Rams signed six players to contracts over $10M. Out of those six, none of them played out the entirety of their deal.

Snead’s Free Agent Signing During Sean McVay-era

This is where the lower-contract numbers carrying more weight is showing significant outliers. Obviously, nobody would consider Sam Shields a more valuable free agent than Andrew Whitworth. However, this is also why the PFF grade is also important to look at here.

Under McVay, Snead has some pretty good low-value signings. Ahkello Witherspoon, signed for $1M, delivered incredible value as a primary starter last year. The same can be said about Demarcus Robinson. Nickell Robey-Coleman also fits this bill.

Andrew Whitworth and Robert Woods are two of the most important signings in the McVay-Snead era. Woods significantly out-played his contract whereas Whitworth played right up to the expectations of his contract, unlike Jake Long from the previous head coach regime. The Rams have also found solid contributors in John Sullivan, Eric Weddle, Ndamukong Suh, and Leonard Floyd.

That’s not to say that there haven’t been misses. Allen Robinson and likely Jonah Jackson come to mind here as players that simply haven’t worked. Still, the Rams under Snead-McVay have hit more than they’ve missed.

Comparing the two eras and what’s next

Under Snead-Fisher, the Rams had zero out of six free agents with a contract over $10M make it to the end of their deals. However, under Snead-McVay that hit rate is much higher. They’ve had eight players prior to 2024 sign contracts worth more than $10M and five of them made it to the end of their contracts or re-signed out of seven players. An exception is made here for Eric Weddle who retired one year into his two-year deal.

Prior to this season, the Rams had signed 21 free agents in the Snead-McVay era and only five of those contracts were terminated or traded. 10 of the 21 players out-performed the value of their contracts which is a rate of 47.6 percent. In the Snead-Fisher era, that was 43.8 percent. Going further and using PFF rankings, 11 of the 21 players have eclipsed an average performance grade of 65 under Snead-McVay. That’s a rate of 52.4 percent. Only 6 out of 16 players had an average PFF grade over 65 under Snead-Fisher which is a rate of 37.5 percent.

It is worth noting here that much of the player acquisition under Snead-McVay has occurred via trade. However, they’ve had their success in free agency. Still, the track record in free agency in the Snead-McVay era is very good. Recent struggles appear to overshadow an otherwise successful free agency process.

There is room for improvement for Snead and the Rams certainly need to look at their pro-scouting process after the last two high-spending free agent windows. However, Snead’s track record is pretty good in free agency and the hope here is that it evens back out the other way. Snead had a few bad draft classes before the previous two. For the team to take the next step, however, more consistent success in free agent signings will be essential.