As the calendar reaches Thanksgiving, we are starting to NFL playoff clinching scenarios.
The calendar has reached Thanksgiving, meaning the NFL playoffs are starting to come into focus. While there are still five weeks of regular season football to be played after this weekend, clinching and elimination scenarios are starting to pop up for teams across the league. Will we have the first team lock into the postseason this weekend?
For Miami Dolphins fans – and since this is a Dolphins fan website, that is our primary focus – the answer to that question is, hopefully, no. The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs can both claim their spot in the AFC playoff picture in Week 13, but a Dolphins loss is a key to most of the scenarios.
As we have done over the last few seasons, we will break down the current standings heading into the week’s schedule, then look at any clinching or elimination scenarios. Typically we update those scenarios as game go final – but we may be a little slow this weekend given the holiday and travel. Hopefully, you understand if we are not on it as quickly in Week 13 as we will be the rest of the year.
2024 NFL Playoff Standings
AFC Playoff Picture (through Week 12):
1 – Kansas City Chiefs (10-1, AFC West leader)
2 – Buffalo Bills (9-2, AFC East leader)
3 – Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3, AFC North leader)
4 – Houston Texans (7-5, AFC South leader)
5 – Baltimore Ravens (8-4, Wild Card 1 position)
6 – Los Angeles Chargers (7-4, Wild Card 2 position)
7 – Denver Broncos (7-5, Wild Card 3 position)
Miami Dolphins (5-6)
Indianapolis Colts (5-7)
Cincinnati Bengals (4-7)
Cleveland Browns (3-8)
New York Jets (3-8)
Tennessee Titans (3-8)
New England Patriots (3-9)
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9)
Las Vegas Raiders (2-9)
Tie breaks:
- Browns over Titans and Jets based on AFC record
- Jets over Titans based on head-to-head results
- Jaguars over Raiders based on AFC record
Notes:
- Patriots eliminated from AFC East title contention
- Raiders eliminated from AFC West title contention
NFL Playoff Picture (through Week 12)
1 – Detroit Lions (10-1, NFC North leader)
2 – Philadelphia Eagles (9-2, NFC East leader)
3 – Seattle Seahawks (6-5, NFC West leader)
4 – Atlanta Falcons (6-5, NFC South leader)
5 – Minnesota Vikings (9-2, Wild Card 1 position)
6 – Green Bay Packers (8-3, Wild Card 2 position)
7 – Washington Commanders (7-5, Wild Card 3 position)
Arizona Cardinals (6-5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)
Los Angeles Rams (5-6)
San Francisco 49ers (5-6)
New Orleans Saints (4-7)
Chicago Bears (4-7)
Dallas Cowboys (4-7)
Carolina Panthers (3-8)
New York Giants (2-9)
Tie breaks:
- Seahawks over Falcons based on head-to-head results
- Buccaneers over Rams based on NFC record; Division tiebreak: Rams over 49ers based on head-to-head results
- Rams over 49ers based on head-to-head results
- Saints over Bears and Cowboys based on NFC record
- Bears over Cowboys based on NFC record
Notes:
- Giants eliminated from NFC East title contention
Clinching Scenarios (Week 13)
AFC Clinching Scenarios
Buffalo Bills clinch AFC East with:
- Bills win and Dolphins loss
Kansas City Chiefs clinch playoff berth with:
- Chiefs win and Dolphins loss/tie OR
- Chiefs win and Broncos loss OR
- Chiefs win and Broncos tie and Chargers loss OR
- Chiefs tie and Dolphins loss
NFC Clinching Scenarios
Detroit Lions can clinch a playoff berth with:
- 25 different scenarios that include combinations of losses and ties from the 49ers, Seahawks, Cardinals, Buccaneers, Commanders, Falcons, Eagles, Colts, Cowboys, Titans, Steelers, Texans, Broncos, Packers, and/or Rams. If things start falling into place to meet any of the scenarios, we will update this space to track those scenarios.
Elimination Scenarios (Week 13)
AFC Elimination Scenarios
New England Patriots are eliminated from the playoffs with:
- Patriots loss and Chargers win/tie and Dolphins win OR
- Patriots loss and Chargers win/tie and Broncos win/tie OR
- Patriots loss and Chargers win/tie and Texans win/tie OR
- Patriots tie and Chargers win and Broncos win
Jacksonville Jaguars are eliminated from the playoffs with:
- Jaguars loss and Chargers win/tie and Broncos win/tie OR
- Jaguars tie and Chargers win and Broncos win
Las Vegas Raiders are eliminated from the playoffs with:
- Raiders loss OR
- Raiders tie and Chargers win/tie and Broncos win/tie
NFC Elimination Scenarios
New York Giants are eliminated from the playoffs with:
- Giants loss OR
- Giants tie and Commanders win/tie OR
- Packers win/tie and Commanders win
