• David Montgomery should find the end zone against the Bears: The Bears defense has struggled to stop the run in recent weeks. They rank in the bottom 10 in EPA allowed per rush and are allowing 4.4 yards per carry.

• Devon Achane‘s versatility makes him a good choice: Achane has garnered six targets within the 10-yard line, tied for 15th in the NFL.

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Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

The Bears defense has struggled to stop the run in recent weeks. They rank in the bottom 10 in EPA allowed per rush and are allowing 4.4 yards per carry.

Now, they face a Lions rushing attack that boasts the third-highest EPA per rush and second-highest success rate in the NFL. Detroit also runs the ball 9% more than expected in the red zone, preferring to punch it in on the ground.

Even with Jahmyr Gibbs taking touches between the 20s, David Montgomery remains Detroit’s go-to red-zone back, outcarrying Gibbs nearly 2-to-1 in close-range situations. With the Lions sporting one of the highest team totals this week — and plenty of scoring opportunities — Montgomery is a strong bet to find the end zone in this Thanksgiving showdown.

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Achane has carved out a significant red-zone role for the Dolphins and boasts the league’s sixth-highest touch percentage on plays inside the 5-yard line.

Achane truly stands out as a red-zone receiving threat, as his six targets inside the 10-yard line are tied for 15th in the league. This complements his role as a runner, giving him more scoring opportunities than nearly any other player in the NFL.

The Dolphins offense is well-positioned to put up points against a Packers defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in yards allowed per attempt, EPA allowed per play and success rate allowed over the past several weeks. At even money, Achane’s heavy usage makes him an excellent bet to find the end zone.

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Longshot: TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs have been dominant against the run this season, ranking first in the NFL in several key efficiency metrics, including yards allowed per carry, rush success rate allowed and EPA allowed per rush.

This dominance has forced opponents to attack through the air, where Kansas City is most vulnerable against tight ends. The Chiefs have surrendered the most yards in the league to the position.

Enter rookie Brock Bowers, a target machine who earns looks on 27% of his routes. He’s also been a red-zone weapon, boasting one of the highest PFF grades on plays inside the 20-yard line.

With the Raiders expected to throw often as they play from behind, look for Las Vegas to exploit this matchup by targeting Bowers against a defense susceptible to tight ends.

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