This one has the makings of a great game.
The Philadelphia Eagles are currently 2.5-point road underdogs in their Week 13 game against the Baltimore Ravens, according to FanDuel.
This is a pretty juicy matchup between two of the best teams in the NFL. The 9-2 Eagles rank third in point differential and fifth in DVOA. The 8-4 Ravens rank fifth in point differential and second in DVOA.
This battle features three of the top seven betting favorites for MVP:
- QB Josh Allen +150
- QB Lamar Jackson +250
- QB Jared Goff +700
- RB Saquon Barkley +700
- QB Patrick Mahomes +800
- QB Justin Herbert +3300
- QB Jalen Hurts +4000
Derrick Henry’s odds have dropped to +10000 but he’s also been in the conversation for this award with how great he’s been.
Vic Fangio’s defense has been pretty awesome since the Eagles’ Week 5 bye. But his unit will be majorly tested going up against Jackson and Henry.
Jackson could not present more of a stark contrast with the statuesque Matthew Stafford the Eagles faced in Week 12. But it’s hardly just his mobility that the Eagles will have to worry about. Jackson is completing a career-high 67.3% of his passes for a career-high 254.4 yards per game, 27 touchdowns, three interceptions, and a league-leading 117.9 passer rating.
Henry, meanwhile, is logging 6.0 yards per carry. That’s only behind Barkely’s ridiculous 6.2 mark.
Expecting the Eagles’ defense to totally shut down the Ravens’ offense clearly isn’t reasonable. The onus will be on the Philly’s offense to outpace Baltimore’s scoring output.
The good news for the Eagles is that the Ravens’ defense has some weaknesses. Baltimore is allowing the sixth-highest average passer rating (101.6) this season. Only seven teams have allowed more yards per pass attempt and only one team has allowed more passing yards per game.
Getting away from Barkley isn’t a recipe for Eagles success but the Ravens do have a stout run defense; they’re allowing the fewest yards per rush attempt this season. The Eagles might need Hurts and the passing attack to do some more heavy lifting than they’ve been tasked with since the bye.
This game is certainly important from a measuring-stick standpoint; it’ll be very interesting to see how the Eagles fare against the best quarterback and best team they’ve faced this season.
But it’s not as important from a playoff implications standpoint. The Eagles can more easily afford to lose to a non-conference opponent:
#Eagles NFC 1 seed tiebreaker scenarios! All 15-2 & 14-3 scenarios below.
Main takeaways:
1) Only way Eagles win 15-2 tiebreaker is if DET’s loss is specifically to GB.
2) Eagles win 14-3 tiebreaker if only loss is to BAL or PIT & DET’s losses include GB *or* are both NFC. pic.twitter.com/3dZLtIsGPl— Deniz Selman (@denizselman33) November 25, 2024
That said, there might not be any margin for error when it comes to the Eagles trying to catch the Detroit Lions for the No. 1 seed.
The feeling here is that Jackson is hard to bet against right now. Then again, so is Barkley. And the Eagles do have a rest advantage here since the Ravens are playing on a short week after beating the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday night.
I’m feeling conflicted. Not quite ready to finalize my pick, especially before seeing the injury reports (is DeVonta Smith going to be back?). But I think I’m leaning Ravens.
What say you?
