A Week 11 preview with Gus Logue of @bigcatcountry about the matchup between the Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars.
More Detroit Lions football is right around the corner, and we would never pass up the opportunity to get some intel from the opponent’s perspective. We called on Gus Logue of BigCatCountry.com to give us a glimpse into how and why the Jacksonville Jaguars have found themselves at the bottom of the standings, how they’ll navigate life without Trevor Lawrence in the immediate, and how the rest of the team is shaping up ahead of this Week 11 matchup.
Jacksonville Jaguars owner Shad Khan made quite the proclamation at the beginning of the season. “Make no mistake: this is the best team assembled by the Jacksonville Jaguars ever,” Khan said. “Best players. Best coaches. But most importantly, let’s prove it by winning now.”
Two months since he made those comments, the Jaguars have lost three games in a row to find themselves at 2-8, tied for the worst record in the NFL. Who is most to blame here: Khan and his comments, the players, or the coaching staff?
I believe the issues in Jacksonville stem from coaches not putting players in the best position to succeed rather than players not executing. The latter has certainly popped up, but here’s an example of the former: first round rookie Brian Thomas Jr. was balling through the first two months of the season (33 catches, 573 yards, 5 touchdowns). However, since Christian Kirk went down with a shoulder injury in Week 8, Thomas Jr. only has 4 catches for 34 yards. You would think that’d he’d be more productive with Kirk out but Jaguars offensive coaches have made no efforts to adjust the game plan to feature him. It’s inexcusable.
I don’t think Khan deserves blame, at least not for this specific season, because he’s no football junkie. He didn’t pore over the depth chart and compare it to previous seasons. He didn’t watch Thomas Jr. tape and conclude that he’d fix the offense. He has a very small circle and trusts the people he’s hired to make decisions… so it’s clear that Khan was told by someone he trusts—almost certainly general manager Trent Baalke—that this roster was legitimate. And now he looks like a fool for reciting the “best team assembled” line.
The players are not blameless, but this season falls on the front office and coaching staff. The house needs to be cleaned.
Trevor Lawrence missed last week’s game against the Minnesota Vikings with an AC joint sprain that could lead to the team shutting him down for the rest of the season.
Do you feel like that’s the right move for Lawrence and his development? What encouraged you about Mac Jones’ performance against the Vikings? What concerns do you have about this offense the rest of the way if he’s the starter from here on out?
Doug Pederson said Wednesday that Lawrence will be out for Sunday’s game in Detroit, but the team is optimistic about a possible return after its Week 12 bye. I’m wary about the team winning enough games to save the head coach and general manager, but I also think Lawrence should return to the field if possible. He only turned 25 last month and would develop more on the field than off. A best-case scenario for the Jaguars may be losing badly in Detroit, firing Pederson during the bye, and allow Lawrence to return and try to win games without Pederson (and Baalke) benefitting from his stardom.
Mac Jones threw for 111 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions with a fumble lost last week. He ranks dead last in passer rating among 45 quarterbacks with 30-plus attempts this season. The most encouraging part of Jones’ performance against Minnesota was the takeaway that Lawrence truly does a lot of heavy lifting for this offense and is a special talent. I struggle to imagine how the Jones-led Jaguars can reach double-digit points in Detroit.
Jacksonville’s defense, despite ranking 31st in defense DVOA and 32nd in pass defense DVOA, kept them in last week’s contest against the Vikings, picking off Sam Darnold three times–including two interceptions in the red zone.
Was this defensive effort an anomaly propped up by timely turnovers, or is there reason to think the Jaguars might be turning a corner defensively?
I’m taking it as a reason to think the Jaguars might be turning a corner defensively. Even with Sam Darnold behind center, holding a Kevin O’Connell-coached and Justin Jefferson-led offense to zero touchdowns is impressive. And while the takeaways did mask 400 yards of offense and 4 red zone trips for Minnesota, the Jaguars registered its second-lowest Time of Possession in franchise history—the defense was put in a tough circumstance and still did enough to win.
I’m bullish on the entire unit continuing to improve over the second half of the season under Ryan Nielsen, who’s in his first season coordinating Jacksonville’s defense. The Jags have had a solid run defense for a few years now, thanks mostly to Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker setting the edge on either side, but the secondary is finally starting to click. The defense transitioned from a 3-4 zone-heavy attack to a 4-3 man-heavy philosophy, so combine that with Nielsen being a newcomer, and there was always going to be some growing pains.
Is there a player or two you could highlight from this Jaguars team that may fly under the radar nationally and will ultimately surprise Lions’ fans by their level of compete?
Tyson Campbell and Darnell Savage have been the best players in Jacksonville’s secondary, especially in recent weeks, but Jarrian Jones deserves love as well. He’s a third-round rookie out of FSU who mostly played on the boundary in college but has now locked down Jacksonville’s nickel role. He recorded his first interception in Week 8—a really cool moment where Jones applied film study and immediately told his position coach on the sidelines, “I told you! I’m the one!”—and he hasn’t allowed more than 50 yards in coverage since the season opener. Jones has a brutal on-paper matchup this week against Amon-Ra St. Brown, but while the All-Pro wideot will surely get his, Lions fans shouldn’t be surprised if they see Jones make a few plays on the ball as well.
Second-year linebacker Ventrell Miller is another guy who’s flying under the radar nationally but could get recognized by Detroiters for his competitiveness. Despite having to redshirt his rookie campaign due to an Achilles injury, the former Gator is attacking the line of scrimmage as well as anyone on the defense. Miller is making a strong case to be a long-term starter in Jacksonville even with Foye Oluokun and Devin Lloyd also in the fold.
What’s your most lucrative nugget of Jaguars’ intel that a Lions fan could benefit from hearing and putting on their bet slip for this Week 11 matchup?
Tank Bigsby is fresh off 2 touches and a 23% snap rate — his lowest marks since September. The second-year back left Sunday’s game, and eventually returned, due to an ankle injury. Meanwhile, Travis Etienne returned from a hamstring injury and had 12 touches and a 68% snap rate. Only Etienne (as a receiver) and D’Ernest Johnson (as a blocker) are used in passing situations, so considering the Lions are double-digit home favorites, Bigsby unders are appealing.
It’s possible that Bigsby’s ankle ailment is more serious than I suspect and his betting lines won’t be available. I’m writing this before props are released so I’ll leave you with a few more betting-related thoughts: I could see Mac Jones picking up a nice gain or two with his legs in garbage time against a man-heavy Lions defense; I could see Sam LaPorta hauling in a deep shot against Jacksonville’s linebackers after he saw several deep targets against Houston; I could see David Montgomery taking over this game against an exhausted and exasperated Jaguars defense; and I could certainly see the Lions winning by more than two touchdowns.
