Despite a turnover-riddled performance from the offense, the Lions defense—along with the leg of Jake Bates—earned them their eighth win this year. That and more in this week’s look at advanced key statistics from Lions-Texans.
What hasn’t already been said about this game? Five interceptions from Jared Goff, three in the first half? No problem, the defense will pitch a shutout in the second half. No Taylor Decker manning the left tackle spot? Next eligible man up. Trailing by 16 at halftime, winless when down by 10+ points at halftime in the Dan Campbell era? Jake Bates will bring it home from distance.
As we’ll do every week throughout the season for this Detroit Lions team, we have some data we can comb through courtesy of PFF that better helps us understand the football the Lions have played thus far—and what to look forward to in the coming weeks. Let’s take a closer look at the Lions by the numbers after a wild win in Houston.
PFF’s premium statistics are an invaluable data point for football fans to better understand the game. Consider subscribing to PFF to have full access to a plethora of stats and grades to keep you informed about the NFL—and college football, too. Also, NFL Pro is supplying some innovative and illustrative advanced statistics of their own that are worth checking out for the price of admission.
21 run defense stops
After a month’s stretch of football—setting the Cowboys game to the side—where the Lions’ defense struggled to stop the run, Detroit’s rush defense had one of their most dominant performances of the Dan Campbell era against the Houston Texans. On Sunday night, the Texans had 28 rushing attempts that net them just 56 yards (2.0 yards per carry). Of those 28 rushing attempts, Detroit’s defense recorded 21 run defense stops per PFF.
To understand that in another way, 75 percent of Houston’s rushing attempts were deemed an outright failure by PFF’s standards (their 25% success rate was third-lowest of the week, per NFL Pro). That’s not all so surprising given the raw stats in the box score, but it’s even more impressive when you consider that 25 of those rushing attempts came from Joe Mixon. In his six games prior to this game against Detroit, Mixon ranked t-13th among running backs in yards per carry (4.8), but aside from his 8-yard rushing touchdown early in the first quarter, Mixon averaged just 1.6 yards per carry across his other 24 carries.
15.0% run defense stop rate, -0.3 average depth of tackle
You thought we were done talking about the run defense? After that kind of performance? Watching this game live, it was the most obvious explanation for how the Lions defense was keeping them in this football game in the first half—and also how they were keeping the Texans off the scoreboard in the second half.
It was reminiscent of Week 11’s contest against the New York Giants in 2022. To jog your memory, the Lions bottled up New York’s ground game, limiting them to 89 yards on 26 carries, but 50 of those rushing yards came on seven rushes from Daniel Jones. The Lions held Saquon Barkley to 22 yards across 15 carries, and Detroit’s run defense officially turned a corner that day—largely in part to the effort of the man in the middle of all that run stuffing: Alim McNeill.
Fast forward nearly two years and McNeill is continuing to be a difference maker for this defense. Against the Texans, McNeill recorded a 15.0% run defense stop rate ranked sixth among 52 qualifying interior defenders in Week 10, and he posted a ridiculous -0.3 yards average depth of tackle which ranked t-third among that same group of players. McNeill was in the backfield all night long against Houston in both phases and was integral in the Lions pulling off their walk-off victory.
43% forced incompletion rate
Brian Branch is an All Pro. He’s the best safety in football. 44 picks came and went in the 2023 NFL Draft and the Green Bay Packers decided to just up and give the Lions the best safety in league. Instead of spending $68 million on a safety, they should really try out this whole drafting one in the second round thing, it’s great.
Back from his erroneous ejection a week ago, Branch was out there making plays—plural—in Houston. Didn’t want to beat a dead horse here, but Branch was game changer in run defense too, posting the top run defense grade for Detroit (88.3), the most run stops (4), and an equally ridiculous 0.8 yards average depth of tackle. But enough about the run defense!
Against the Texans, Branch was a ball hawk in coverage, posting a 43% forced incompletion rate, a figure which put him No. 1 among safeties who were targeted at least twice in coverage in Week 10—and Branch was targeted seven (7) times, another figure that put him first among players at his position. Of those seven targets attributed to him by PFF, he forced three incompletions with some sticky coverage, and allowed four receptions for just 21 yards, the longest of which was a 10-yard completion to Xavier Hutchinson.
9.7% blitz rate, 13.8% turnover worthy play rate
Let’s dig into the concern some have surrounding Goff’s five interceptions because it’s important to understand the context.
When defenses can generate pressure by sending just four defenders, that’s a death sentence for any quarterback in this league. Against Goff, if you pack in and congest the passing lanes over the middle of the field and get pressure without blitzing, it’s a wrap—but that is the tallest task for any defense to accomplish and sustain for 60 minutes.
Houston only blitzed on 9.7% of Goff’s dropbacks which sits in stark contrast to the blitz rate Goff had faced through the first eight games of the season (40.5%, the second-highest mark among quarterbacks). Houston was able to disrupt Goff with just four defenders, forcing a 13.8% turnover worthy play rate out of the Lions quarterback, the worst number in Week 10. Goff’s completion percentage was just 51.9%, the fourth-lowest mark of this past week. Four of his five interceptions came on plays where the Texans didn’t even blitz.
And they were wise not to send that extra pressure Goff’s way considering how incredibly effective he’s been against the blitz this season, posting the second-best yards per attempt (10.7), touchdowns (7), completion percentage (76.4%), and passer rating (129.8) in the NFL. But what happened in the end? Houston was unable to sustain the sort of pressure they were generating without blitzing in the second half and what do you know, Goff and the Lions offense was able to get in rhythm and snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
