In case you haven’t heard, the 2026 NFL Draft is a little over two weeks away. It’s been a headline-making offseason for Big Blue, and the draft should be the last big piece of the team’s makeover from 2025. This is the third straight year that the Giants have one of the first six picks in the draft. Having picks that high is good in the sense that you’ve got a better chance of landing impact players. But overall, it’s a negative: It means you had a bad season where you didn’t win many games. Big Blue’s faithful are hoping that the team won’t pick again in the Top-10, or even the Top-15 or 20, for a long time.
The draft lasts for seven rounds, but the media and fans tend to focus most of their attention on the first round, where the top prospects hear their names called. Who is Big Blue likely to take with the fifth overall pick? Well, there’s no shortage of predictions out there. Do an internet search for “NFL Mock Draft” and you’ll get dozens and dozens of results. Thankfully, Ed Valentine has been doing a mock draft tracker each Friday, and you can take a look at the latest edition to see who the so-called experts have been mocking to the Giants.
Is there another way to try to handicap who Big Blue might select? You bet there is. You can wager on pretty much anything these days, and on FanDuel that incudes who will be selected with each of the first six picks. Note that the wagers offered align with the pick slot, and not the team. That makes sense, since teams can trade out of these slots and into a range where different players are likely to be available.
Before we get into the odds for Pick 5, it’s worth noting that the wagers offered don’t just factor in the team that’s picking (barring a trade), that team’s needs, and prospect ratings. A team can only choose from the players available, so the odds also reflect the likelihood of certain players going earlier. The odds for Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza at Pick 5 are +12,500. That’s not even long enough, since there’s almost no way he gets past the Raiders at No. 1, or if he somehow does, the Jets at No. 2.
These are the current odds (as of April 7), for the five “favorites” at Pick 5:
Ohio State LB Sonny Styles: +185
Ohio State S Caleb Downs: +380
Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love: +500
Ohio State WR Carnell Tate: +900
Miami OT Francis Mauigoa +1000
What can we take away from these odds?
First, the odds align with the mock draft tracker, which for several weeks has had Styles as the consensus favorite to go to the Giants at Pick 5. In the latest tracker (linked above), Styles was the pick in 32 of the 65 mocks last week (49.2%). Does that mean Styles will be a Giant? Of course not, but it’s worth noting that the odds and the experts are foreseeing the same thing.
Another takeaway from the odds is the uncertainty of this draft after the first pick. Mendoza is a prohibitive favorite (-20,000) to go to the Raiders at Pick 1. At Pick 2, Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese has fairly short odds (-280) to go to the Jets. After that, there is no player with minus-odds at any of the other four slots. The Cardinals at Pick 3, Titans at Pick 4, and Giants at Pick 5 all could go in a number of directions, and of course, nobody knows what these teams’ draft boards look like.
It’s likely that at least one, and possibly more, of the five players listed above won’t be available when the Giants pick, and again, the odds factor that in. So, Styles can be thought of as the player whose draft rating and likely pick range best align with the Giants (and their needs) at Pick 5. But he’s only listed at +185, which is almost 2:1 odds. Live odds at the time Big Blue is actually on the clock would look very different than the odds posted above. When the Giants pick, Styes could already be getting fitted for a Jets, Cardinals, or Titans jersey.
Here’s a third takeaway from the odds: There’s a pretty good chance the Giants will take a Buckeye at Pick 5. Reese will probably be gone, but at least of two of Styles, Downs, and Tate should be there, and all three are among the top overall prospects in this draft, at positions that would be a good marriage of value and need.
One final thought: If Love is there, he’ll be tempting. He’s the first or second rated player in this draft for most “experts”, and even though he plays a position that isn’t a “premium” one for draft and NFL compensation purposes, he’ll be the best player available on most teams’ boards until his name is called. I don’t think New York’s brain-trust will go in that direction, given the positional value and most pressing team needs, but I’ve been wrong about this stuff before.
So, will Styles be the selection for Joe Schoen and John Harbaugh? Number five overall is not only high for a running back — it’s also high for an off-ball linebacker. But he’s got rare athleticism, is a very sure tackler, and could elevate an entire defense. And what about Downs? It’s also a high draft slot for a safety, but like Styles he’s an elite prospect, in a draft that’s not very deep with them. His football smarts are off the charts, and Harbaugh knows the value of a do-it-all safety who can quarterback a defense. Tate is the highest-rated receiver in the class, and wide receiver is a premium position. He’d give Jaxson Dart another weapon as he continues to develop in his second season.
The odds reflect that there’s nothing even close to a sure thing here. The Giants could go in several directions, including trading down, and obviously their pick will depend on which players make it to them. We’ll all just have to wait a little longer to see which mock drafters got it right, and which bet cashes in.
See More:
