In earlier eras, when the miltary was less respected than it is today, comedians Groucho Marx and George Carlin and even Doctor Who in Great Britain could get laughs by saying, “Military intelligence is a contradiction in terms.” Many common phrases in use today are contradictions in terms: “Awfully good,” “deafening silence,” and so on.
This time of year, we in the NFL universe have our own contradiction in terms: “Draft expert.” It’s become a cottage industry of sorts. We hang on the words (or tweets) of the “NFL insiders.” We parse every statement by coaches and general managers, record whom they are meeting with or just chatting up at the NFL Combine, make note of whom they are hosting for Top 30 visits. All in the interest of predicting whom they might draft.
How much is it all worth, though? The draft always surprises us, doesn’t it? There probably has never been an NFL spectacle of greater magnitude than last year’s draft, when Shedeur Sanders went from being discussed as a possible Giants pick at No. 3 to not being selected until Round 5. Will Levis and Malik Willis in earlier years went through something similar but not as extreme in earlier years. The so-called “draft experts” were flabbergasted.
In general, though, how well do the draft experts do, and what might it portend for the New York Giants’ options at No. 5 this year? It matters, because the Giants’ past two drafts, which seem to have gone pretty well for them in Round 1, do not erase a prior history of unfortunate first round picks who had a lot to do with the misery of the past decade.
Let’s take a look. The table below shows the top 10 picks in each of the past four drafts, compared to the consensus big board for each draft compiled by the NFL Mock Draft Database. The picks are color-coded to indicate how close they were to being correct:
Data from NFL Mock Draft Database
Unsurprisingly, the farther down you get in the top 10, the more likely the experts are to be wrong. There are a couple of other features to note:
- Elite quarterback prospects tend to be ranked more correctly (in terms of where they’ll be drafted, not necessarily in whether they will succeed) than players at other positions.
- Drafts without, or with few, elite QB prospects are more of a crapshoot than other drafts. In particular, in 2022, the consensus did not get a single pick in the top 10 in the correct place, although they were within one draft slot of being correct on a few of the players. That was bad news for the Giants, who reportedly had strong interest in cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and Derek Stingley Jr.
- There is a potentially interesting “trend” – in each of the past two years, the consensus has been exactly right about who the first four draft picks were going to be, in order. Giants fans don’t care about the exact order of the first four, so 2023, with the consensus getting three of the top four correct though not in the exact draft spot, is pretty good too, while the consensus was only 2 for 4 in 2022. Are the draft experts getting better?
Four years is a small sample, so let’s look at the same thing for the previous four years:
Data from NFL Mock Draft Database
We can see that the prediction success of earlier years is not as good but not always much worse than it was in 2024 and 2025. In particular, the experts did well in 2020 when they got the first three right and only missed on the No. 4 pick. That was Andrew Thomas, drafted much higher than expected. I’d say that Thomas has justified his draft position. 2018 was a mess, with all the great quarterback prospects but no agreement on how they should be ranked. The consensus had four QBs going in the top six, but only two actually did.
This year has more of the feel of 2019 or to a lesser extent 2021. In 2019 Kyler Murray, like Fernando Mendoza this year, was the clear No. 1, and people were trying to talk themselves into believing that another quarterback could be drafted in the top 10. Only Dave Gettleman won that argument inside his brain, taking Daniel Jones No. 6, much higher than anyone else had valued him.
2021 had a clear consensus No. 1 in Trevor Lawrence, just like Mendoza this year. Lawrence should have been the only top 5 QB, but teams convinced themselves that the relatively inexperienced Zach Wilson and highly inexperienced Trey Lance were worthy of picks No. 2 and 3, the latter after a trade-up. The fairly inexperienced Ty Simpson is this year’s analog for that. I doubt that any team will want to trade up into the top five to draft Simpson. In fact his draft stock on the consensus big board has been sinking since December, when he briefly looked as if he might go in the top 10:
Courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database
Even if a trade-up for Simpson doesn’t happen, the draft could fall nicely for the Giants if the consensus is an accurate guide this year:
Courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database
We can safely predict that the Giants aren’t interested in Mendoza. Assuming that they don’t trade Kayvon Thibodeaux in the next few weeks, they’re probably not interested in edge defenders Arvell Reese (who admittedly has played some linebacker too) or David Bailey. Presumably they’d be happy for those three players to come off the board at No. 1, 2, 3. That leaves the Tennessee Titans at No. 4. The consensus big board has them taking Jeremiyah Love. Here’s what three ESPN draft experts (Jordan Reid, Field Yates, Matt Miller) had to say:
Courtesy of ESPN
Given John Harbaugh’s inclination toward a strong running game, Love absolutely could be the pick at No. 5 if the Titans don’t take him. If Love does wind up a Titan, that leaves four other players who could conceivably be high on the Giants’ priority list. Their draft “momentum” this year has been going in different directions:
Courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database
All of these players were projected at one time to go at or near the Giants’ No. 5 draft position. For safety Caleb Downs and wide receiver Carnell Tate, draft stock has mostly been sinking, though not by so much that it is improbable that the Giants would take them. For linebacker Sonny Styles and offensive lineman Francis Mauigoa, draft stock has mostly risen in 2026 into the range where they are plausible picks at No. 5. Other prospects such as cornerback Mansoor Delane (currently projected No. 10) and Vega Ioane (currently projected No. 17) seem too far away to come off the board as high as No. 5…but you never know in the NFL Draft.
The Giants have a recent history of being beaten to the punch by other teams for players they wanted in the draft. During the Jerry Reese era, the Giants let Tennessee and Chicago jump him in the 2016 draft for Jack Conklin and Leonard Floyd, leaving him holding the bag with Eli Apple. In 2021, Dave Gettleman watched as Philadelphia jumped past him to take DeVonta Smith, leaving him ultimately with Kadarius Toney after a trade-down instead of Micah Parsons or Rashawn Slater.
In both 2022 and 2023, it’s possible that Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll had to settle for first-round players that were not at the top of their list of targets. Surely that was the case in 2023, when there were first round runs on both cornerbacks and wide receivers before they picked, leaving them with Deonte Banks…after a small trade-up, to add to the indignity. In 2022 Schoen’s cryptic answer to the question of why he drafted Evan Neal (“because Ickey was gone at six,” referring to tackle Ikem Ekwonu) suggested that Ekwonu was his actual target. In 2024 we know that Schoen unsuccessfully tried to trade up to take Drake Maye. Likewise in 2025, Daboll tried to talk Titans GM Mike Borgonzi out of taking Cam Ward with the No. 1 pick.
This year, it’s possible that when the Giants are on the clock, they’ll have all or most of the prospects they seriously considered taking at No. 5 still on the board when they select. Unlike those previous years, there is no single obvious choice at No. 5 but instead a menu of choices, any of which could improve the team. Even if another team trades up ahead of them, as in 2016, there should be a very good player at a position of need still on the board…that is, if they don’t trade down for a third-round pick. And if they do trade down, let’s hope they don’t follow the example of 2021.
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