The Los Angeles Rams will have a plethora of options when they are on the clock with the 13th overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Depending on how the board shakes out, one of those options will be trading back, which seems to be the preferred option among many fans.
However, a trade back may be easier said than done, especially in this draft class. It’s very top-heavy with a significant drop-off after the top eight prospects, meaning there may be more interest in trading back than there are teams willing to trade up after those players are gone. While the opposite has been true the last two years, the overall idea has been similar. More teams wanted to trade up than teams were willing to trade back out of the top talent. During the last two drafts, there has been one trade inside the top-15.That came when the Minnesota Vikings swapped picks with the New York Jets to draft JJ McCarthy, moving up just one spot.
At the end of the day, it takes two to tango. There seems to be this idea that if the Rams trade back from 13th overall, they can also very easily pick up a 2027 first round pick. However, given the perceived strength of the 2027 class, especially at quarterback, teams are also hoarding high 2027 picks.
While it’s possible, it’s not often that a pick outside of the top-10 nets a future first round selection. While the Rams were able to get it done last year with the Atlanta Falcons, it also required them to move down from 26 to 46 and give up a third round selection.
Taking a look at some of the major trades between picks 10 and 15 since 2015, four of those netted a first round pick and two of those occurrences happened in the same draft. It’s happened just once since 2020.
- 2022: The Minnesota Vikings traded picks 12 and 46 to the Detroit Lions in exchange for picks 32, 34, and 66. The Lions selected WR Jameson Williams. Minnesota selected S Lewis Cline at 32.
- 2021: The New York Giants traded pick 11 to the Chicago Bears in exchange for pick 20 and 164 as well as a 2022 first and fourth-round selection. The Bears selected QB Justin Fields. New York selected WR Kadarius Toney at pick 20.
- 2021: The Vikings traded picks 14 and 143 to the New York Jets in exchange for pick 23, 66, and 86. The Jets selected OT Alijah Vera-Tucker. Minnesota selected OT Christian Darrisaw at pick 23.
- 2019: The Denver Brocnos traded pick 10 to the Pittsburgh Steelers in exchange for pick 20 and 52 as well as a 3rd round pick in 2020. The Steelers selected LB Devin Bush. Denver selected TE Noah Fant at pick 20.
- 2018: The Green Bay Packers traded pick 14 to the New Orleans Saints in exchange for pick 27 and 147 as well as a first round pick in 2019. The Saints selected EDGE Marcus Davenport. Green Bay traded up from pick 27.
- 2017: The Buffalo Bills traded pick 10 to the Kansas City Chiefs in exchange for pick 27 and 91 as well as a first-round selection in 2018. The Chiefs selected QB Patrick Mahomes. Buffalo selected CB Tre White at pick 27.
- 2017: The Cleveland Browns traded pick 12 to the Houston Texans in exchange for pick 25 and a first round pick in 2018. The Texans drafted QB Deshaun Watson. Cleveland selected S Jabril Peppers at pick 25.
There are a few things worth noting with these trades. Out of the four trades that returned a first-round pick, three of them were for a quarterback. The 2026 draft is a light quarterback class with Ty Simpson as the only realistic option at 13. However, would a team fall in love with Simpson enough to not just trade up, but move a future first round pick?
The New York Jets may need a quarterback, but they pick at 16. A move from 16 to 13 wouldn’t warrant a first-round pick in return. Could the Steelers or Browns look to move up from 21 or 24 and jump ahead of the Jets? The Steelers may be the team to watch with a new head coach and Aaron Rodgers non-committal on his future. Cleveland makes less sense as they have a plethora of quarterbacks with Shedeur Sanders, Dillon Gabriel, and Deshaun Watson in the mix.
Outside of quarterbacks, the other trade that warranted a first-round pick in return was the Saints moving up for edge rusher Marcus Davenport. Davenport may not have been a quarterback, but edge rusher is still a premier position. It’s also the position that the Falcons moved up for last season in their trade with the Rams.
Additionally, while three of the four trades returned a quarterback, the team trading back also moved back to at least the 25th overall pick three times. A big reason the Rams moved the 29th overall pick in the Trent McDuffie trade was because the odds of finding an immediate impact contributor at that spot were very low. Therefore, it made sense to trade that pick for a proven talent. If the Rams moved back from 13 to 24, they would likely run into that same dilemma.
Essentially, to net a first-round pick, the Rams would not only be hoping for a team to be head over heels in love with Simpson, but also potentially a top prospect to fall. With that said, if a player like Caleb Downs or Jeremiyah Love falls, or less likely, Sonny Styles or Rueben Bain Jr., does it make more sense just to draft one of them rather than trade down for the sake of a future draft pick?
This isn’t to say that it’s impossible for the Rams to land a 2027 first round pick, but it may be very difficult in this specific draft class. That also doesn’t mean that the Rams shouldn’t trade down if the opportunity arises. However, if the Rams do trade down, the return package may not be as large as some might expect.
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