Welcome to Part IV of my fantasy look-ahead for this coming season, in the form of what I see as the biggest question for each NFL squad from a fantasy standpoint.
You can find the NFC East, AFC East, and North Divisions columns by clicking the links. And you can find my free agency and trading fantasy recap here.
A record 10 NFL teams have new Head Coaches for the 2026 season, 21 teams have new Offensive Coordinators, and lots of players have changed teams via free agency and trades. The draft is in less than a month. Throw it all together and multiple offenses could look a lot different this season. I’m asking my questions based on what we know today.
This installment covers the NFC South and AFC South, which have been the NFL’s two weakest division this decade. Across the last five seasons, the two south divisions are the NFL’s only divisions that haven’t been represented in a Conference Championship game. The NFC South has been especially bad in the five seasons since Tampa Bay won it all in 2020-21. Last season, all four South teams had a losing record, and that was the second time that’s happened in the last four seasons. The AFC South showed signs of life last season with both Jacksonville and Houston winning at least 12 games, and the third place Colts had the NFL’s best record through nine games. But the AFC South has been down and out for most of this decade.
From a fantasy standpoint, it’s not quite as bad. Bijan Robinson will be the 1.01 or 1.02 pick in most drafts in redraft leagues, and there are plenty of valuable fantasy assets and some interesting sleepers across the eight teams.
Teams are listed in order of finish from last season. All fantasy rankings are for Half-PPR scoring, on a fantasy points per game basis (FPPG), with Week 18 excluded.
AFC SOUTH
Jacksonville Jaguars.
QUESTION: Has Trevor Lawrence emerged as a reliable QB1 for fantasy?
I’m tempted to ask something about the crowded receiver corps, but let’s wait to see if anything happens with Brian Thomas, Jr. After four up-and-down seasons where he was never reliable for fantasy, Lawrence took a major step forward in his first year with Liam Coen. Lawrence finished as the QB5 for the season (20.4 FPPG), and from Week 5 on, his 22.8 FPPG trailed only Josh Allen (22.9). Hopefully that’s a sign of more great things to come. Not only did Lawrence set a new career high with 29 TD passes, but he also ran for nine TDs, which was four more than his prior high. Hitting his 2025 rushing totals is probably a bit of a stretch, but still, I think Lawrence has turned a corner and with Coen guiding him and plenty of good options in the passing game, he might finally become the prince that was promised. I’ll be comfortable drafting him as my QB1.
Houston Texans.
QUESTION: Is David Montgomery going to be a true workhorse?
Montgomery has proven to be a solid producer when given the chance, but his entire three-year stint in Detroit was a committee situation where he never got more than 225 carries. He’s also going to be 29 when the season starts, and that’s old for a starting RB. Woody Marks showed promise as a rookie but is undersized and probably best suited to a situational role. After catching 261 passes in college, he only had 24 grabs in his rookie season and the Texans would be wise to utilize him more in the passing game.
Houston doesn’t have a great line but Joe Mixon showed two years ago that a lead back on this team, with its excellent defense, can be very productive. As of now, I’ve got Montgomery as a higher-end RB2, on the theory that he’ll get the kind of lead-back workload Mixon got two seasons ago.
Indianapolis Colts.
QUESTION: Can Daniel Jones lead this offense back to what we witnessed in the first half of last season?
The Colts were the biggest surprise of the first half of last season. Through Week 8, Jonathan Taylor was the RB1, Daniel Jones was the QB8, Michael Pittman was the WR12, and Tyler Warren was the TE4. Then the offense started to slow down, and a few weeks later Jones got seriously hurt and it all came crashing down. Jones was re-signed, and so was deep threat Alec Pierce, and other than Pittman the main pieces are all back and that includes a solid line. Jones is coming off the third major injury of his career, and it’s hard to know if or when he’ll get back to playing at the level he was at early last season, and how much he’ll be able to run.
Can the offense hum again, behind him? Indy’s players (outside of Taylor) are going to be a little hard to rank given the uncertainty.
Tennessee Titans.
QUESTION: Is Tennessee going to take Jeremiyah Love with the fourth pick?
Conventional wisdom: Teams shouldn’t use a Top-10 pick on a running back unless they’re already a very good team. Tennessee isn’t that by a wide margin, and neither were the Raiders last season when they took Ashton Jeanty with the sixth pick (and, lesson learned, now they’re picking first). That said, the Titans are building a fancy new stadium that will open in 2027, and they need to sell tickets. They also need to help out Cam Ward, and Love would hit on both objectives.
Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are both in the final year of their deals so it makes sense from that perspective too. It won’t be the best landing spot for Love, but he’d still warrant RB1 consideration for fantasy. And his game-breaking presence would probably lift the rest of the offense, including Ward.
NFC SOUTH
Carolina Panthers.
QUESTION: Will Jonathon Brooks ever stay healthy?
I’m tempted to ask something about Bryce Young, but I think at this point he is what he is – talented but highly inconsistent, too small, and no sure thing to make it as a long-term NFL starting QB. He won’t destroy the value of his receivers, but that value is also capped. So I’ll go with Brooks, who has barely played in his first two seasons as a Panther. With Rico Dowdle gone, Chuba Hubbard has a chance to be a great value at RB if Brooks can’t get on the field, and stay there. Hubbard has a good all-around skillset and has given fantasy managers solid RB2 production when he’s the lead back.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
QUESTION: Can Tampa’s offense bounce back?
In 2024, the Bucs’ offense was a juggernaut, and ranked third in the NFL at 399.5 yards per game. Then OC Liam Coen left to become Jacksonville’s Head Coach, and the Bucs dropped all the way to 21st in total offense last season, at 320.4 yards per game. Cause and effect? It sure looks that way, as the Jaguars (discussed above) took the elevator in the other direction, going from 25th in total offense in 2024 to 11th last season.
It wasn’t just Coen’s departure, though, that did the Bucs in. Tampa’s offense suffered a slew of injuries in 2025 and was almost never at full strength. So, what should fantasy players expect in 2026? Can Baker Mayfield regain the elite form that saw him finish as the QB5 in 2025, or is his finish last year (QB15) more realistic, and especially with TD machine Mike Evans gone? How high should Bucky Irving, Emeka Egbuka, and Chris Godwin be drafted? Is Jalen McMillan a stealthy sleeper to grab late? All come with question marks, for different reasons. Figuring out how much to invest in this offense is going to be a challenge for fantasy managers, given the range of outcomes.
Atlanta Falcons.
QUESTION: Can you trust Kyle Pitts?
Let’s play America’s favorite game: Name That Tune! Here are the opening lines: “We’ll be fighting in the streets, with our children at our feet…” Give up? It’s the rock anthem “Won’t Get Fooled Again”, by the Who. And yes, Kyle Pitts, this one’s for you. The 4th overall pick in the 2021 draft has been among the most frustrating players in fantasy for the last five seasons, and he might be the number one “never again” player among fantasy managers.
But a funny thing happened last season. As Michael Corleone famously declared in Godfather III, “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!” Is this too much pop culture for all of you? Anyway, Pitts caught fire down the stretch last season, and finished as the TE6. That ranking is deceptive, however, as it includes an insane 40-point game that was his only weekly output above 16 fantasy points. Still, Pitts appears to have turned a corner and is likely to be drafted among the first handful of TEs in 2026. Should you pull the trigger? The QB situation is less than ideal, and it’s very possible that Pitts goes back to being nothing but frustration. If you’re on the fence, just put The Who in your music queue.
New Orleans Saints.
QUESTION: Would you be comfortable with Travis Etienne as your RB1?
The answer to this depends in part on your preferred roster build. Another important factor will be what happens with Alvin Kamara, who will be 31 when next season starts and who has missed 15 games over the past three seasons. Getting more weapons for Tyler Shough is a big priority for the Saints this off-season, and that made them a logical landing spot for Love. But the Saints went ahead and brought in Etienne on a big four-year deal, which could reflect that they didn’t think Love would make it to them at Pick 8 (ditto the Chiefs at Pick 9, who brought in Ken Walker).
Etienne (pronounced Ay-Chan) is coming off his best season and the hope is that he’ll pick up where he left off, while operating in less of a committee than he often had in Jacksonville. Etienne finished as the RB10 last season, and again, the Liam Coen effect was apparent. He caught six TD passes after hauling in just one across his first three seasons, and passing game usage will be an important part of his value. But if Kamara sticks around and/or this ends up being more of a committee, Etienne’s upside will be capped.
That’s it for the South divisions. Coming next, the final installment: The wicked witches of the West, so keep it here!
See More:
