The 2026 NFL Draft is rapidly approaching. That means it’s time to update the “Big Blue View Rules for Draft Success.”
If you aren’t familiar with these rules, I created this guide to my draft philosophy several years ago. Each year the rules get tweaked with new examples and, on occasion, modified to reflect the changing realities of the NFL and my evolving beliefs. I also try to relate them to decisions currently faced by the New York Giants as well as ones they have made in recent years. It’s not perfect, and there is plenty of room for debate. If I was a GM, though, these are the rules I would draft by.
1. Draft ‘value’ over perceived need
I always push back against the idea that the Giants need to take position A in Round 1, position B in Round 2, position C in Round 3, etc. That is how you make mistakes — how you leave better players on the board while selecting lesser ones.
Truth is, you are never certain what your ‘needs’ are going to be in any given NFL season. You never know where injuries may strike, or where players already on your roster may underperform or overperform expectations.
One thing that is no doubt true when it comes to assessing ‘value’: A team’s perception of ‘value’ is impacted by its perception of its ‘needs.’ When it comes to ‘best player available,’ all 32 teams are likely to have a different idea who that might be at most spots in the draft. Teams undoubtedly set their draft boards based somewhat on perceived needs and fits for their systems. As one former scout told me, that is simply human nature.
My point is this. If you believe you need a wide receiver, but there is not one on the board who you believe should be drafted at that stage of the draft, you don’t grab a lower-ranked wide receiver. You take a player who, on your board, has a grade that makes him deserving of being picked in that spot. When grades are equal, then need and scheme fit come into play. At that point, take the player you feel gives you something you don’t already have — the player who fills a need. Trust your evaluation, try to match value and need whenever possible. Value trumps need, but need is the deciding factor when values are equal.
You take ‘value’ over perceived ‘need.’ You hope, of course, that the best players on the board happen to match areas where you believe you have needs. The draft is unpredictable, however, and available value does not always match perceived needs.
I recite this annually, but former Minnesota Vikings GM Jeff Diamond once told me the story of why he chose Randy Moss in the first round of the 1998 NFL Draft despite already having two star wide receivers. Minnesota didn’t need a wide receiver — they already had Cris Carter and Jake Reed — but they knew Moss would be a difference-maker. So, they took him. That worked out pretty well.
Another reason you draft value over perceived need is that the draft is not just about the upcoming season. The draft is about the long term. The more players a team can draft, develop, and keep beyond their rookie contracts the better.
How does that impact this draft?
New head coach John Harbaugh has already made his position on drafting at No. 5 clear. A pick that high is not about immediate need. It is about getting the best long-term football player you can get, one you who will hopefully someday be considered a Hall of Famer.
If need combined with positional value were the primary considerations, I believe two players would be at the top of the discussion for the Giants — wide receiver Carnell Tate and cornerback Mansoor Delane. Instead, off-ball linebacker Sonny Styles, safety Caleb Downs, running back Jeremiyah Love, and perhaps a trade down scenario for someone like Delane or guard Vega Ioane seem to dominate the discussion.
2. If you don’t have a franchise quarterback, get one
The NFL is a quarterback-driven league. If you don’t have a top-tier one, you cannot have any type of sustained success. You can have a good year, or a good stretch within a year, but you simply can’t be competitive year after year without one. If you need a franchise quarterback, and you think there is one available when it is your turn to draft and pass on drafting him, shame on you.
This is why the Sam Darnold vs. Saquon Barkley debate took place. It’s why Pat Shurmur’s admission that had the Giants not drafted Barkley the quarterback he wanted was Josh Allen still stings. It’s why quarterbacks fly off the draft board year after year even though many of them are overdrafted. It’s why I supported the Giants’ decision to draft Daniel Jones at No. 6 in 2018. The Giants had a need to replace Eli Manning, thought he could be the guy, and went for it. As they should have. It didn’t work out. It is why the trade up for Jaxson Dart was worth the two third-round picks the Giants surrendered.
Simply put, quarterback is more valuable than any other position on the field. Having, or not having, one does more to change the fortunes of your franchise than a player at another position possibly could.
The flip side of this rule is: Do not take a quarterback in the first round unless you are absolutely convinced he can be the face of your franchise for the next decade. You can’t pick a guy just to pick a quarterback or because Mel Kiper, Daniel Jeremiah, some other TV talking head, media member or the fan base says you should. You are marrying that player. You are putting the fortunes of the franchise in his hands. If you pick the wrong quarterback, you set your franchise back.
How does that impact this draft?
It doesn’t. The Giants made their bold quarterback move last year, giving up third-round picks in 2025 and 2026 to ove back into Round 1 and select Jaxson Dart. Unless Dart does not turn out to be what the Giants think he will be, New York won’t have to worry about this for a while. Also, there does not appear to be a quarterback other teams will want to trade to No. 5 to draft.
3. Do not take running backs in Round 1 … unless they are a finishing piece
I tinker with this rule more than any of the other five. That isn’t because my basic anti-Round 1 running back stance changes, but because the NFL changes, and my thinking about acceptable circumstances for taking running backs in the first round evolves.
In my view, you seek a running back early when you need a finishing piece on a ready to win roster. Not as a building block on a team trying to start a climb toward respectability. Another way to look at it: Is your team ready to fully capitalize on that running back from Year 1? If you cannot honestly answer yes to that question, pass. Running backs generally play their best football on their first contracts.
Dave Gettleman thought Saquon Barkley could be a franchise-changer, drafting him No. 2 overall in 2018. As wonderful as Barkley has been, he did not change the Giants’ franchise and is now a member of the Philadelphia Eagles.
Drafting Barkley at No. 2 was a mistake. That pick should have been used on a quarterback, or traded for a haul of draft picks that would likely have accelerated the massive rebuild the Giants needed. In all honesty, I believe part of the issue at the time was that Gettleman and co-owner John Mara did not want to face the reality that a full-scale rebuild was needed. My belief is they thought they could pair Manning, Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. and give Manning one last shot at a playoff run while working to fix the rest of the roster.
NFL offenses no longer revolve around the running game. Offenses revolve around the quarterback, the offensive line and the wide receivers. Running backs share the load, with most teams employing two or three in some form of time share.
I have been told that former Giants GM Ernie Accorsi’s rule was always that quarterback, left tackle and pass rusher were the most important positions, and that running back was near the bottom of the list. The way the game is now played, I would add pass coverage guys (cornerbacks) to the premium positions list. In fact, at every position I think you have to value players who impact the passing game over those who do not.
Historically, there are always plenty of quality running backs available in the middle of the draft. Take one then, and use your first pick on an impact player at a more important position. GM Joe Schoen, for all the things he has not done well, has built the kind of running back room a lot of teams would like to have with two good backs drafted in the middle rounds — Cam Skattebo and Tyrone Tracy — on inexpensive rookie deals.
The Giants have historically done better with backs drafted beyond Round 1. Tiki Barber, Joe Morris, Ahmad Bradshaw, Brandon Jacobs were not first-round picks. David Wilson, Ron Dayne, Tyrone Wheatley, George Adams, Rocky Thompson and Tucker Fredrickson were.
Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, and Nick Chubb, three of the best running backs of the past seven or eight years, were second-round picks. Kenneth Walker, a second-round pick, just won a Super Bowl MVP. James Cook of the Buffalo Bills was a second-round pick.
The other factor that still argues against drafting running backs early is the allocation of financial resources. The Giants, of course, ran into that with Barkley.
This rule would argue that the type of team that would be well-positioned to draft a running back early might be one in a championship window that needs one more playmaker. It would argue against drafting a running back in Round 1 if you are building, or rebuilding.
How does that impact this draft?
John Harbaugh is an outlier. In an NFL that gives lip service to the value of the running the ball and stopping the run, but doesn’t really have a ton of coaches who actually practice that belief, Harbaugh, and his brother Jim, are different. They are among the few coaches who are true believers and actually put that philosophy into practice.
That belief in the run game, and the fact there are not a high number of quarterbacks, receiverers, and offensive tackles in the conversation early in the draft, is part of what drives the idea that the Giants would select Notee Dame running back Jeremiyah Love at No. 5.
It is a possibility that can’t be discounted. Would it be the right move?
NFL Draft analyt Todd McShay said on his podcast that Love of is “right there in the conversation of the best backs that have entered the league in the pat decade.” Yet, McShay’s podcast partner Steve Muench said “I don’t think you can take him top 10 if you’re looking at it from a business standpoint.”
Big Blue View started in 2007. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the only running back drafted in Round 1 to win a Super Bowl with the team that drafted him, and he was a role player rather than a focal point.
“Historically, it’s the wrong move,” Muench said.
What makes this choice even more interesting is that the pick, no matter who it turns out to be, seems likely to go against what have beecome traditional NFL positional value norms. The Giants could easily end up breaking this rule. If they do, it will be fascinating to see how it works out.
4. When in doubt, draft a lineman
This applies to both the offensive and defensive lines.
I don’t care how pass-happy the NFL gets or how much the rules change, the game is still won and lost along the front lines. On offense, you have to be able to block for your quarterback and open holes for your running backs. On defense, you have to be able to rush the passer and you have to be stout against the run in the middle. You never want to be caught without enough players who can do those things, so when in doubt, draft a lineman. The Giants have learned these lessons the hard way in recent seasons.
You should be able to find quality linemen in the middle to late rounds, especially on the offensive side. David Diehl, a fifth-round pick, was a great example. Rich Seubert was not drafted at all and still had a long, productive career for the Giants. Elite linemen, especially tackles, are usually only available in the very early stages of the draft.
My rule? After you get your quarterback, or if you already believe you have him, build from the inside out. Some even say build your team until it’s ready to sustain a young quarterback. I think it’s about how you feel about the quarterback(s) available.
Year after year, though, I advocate for the Giants to select an offensive lineman high in the draft.
On the defensive side, you should be able to get run pluggers in the middle portions of the draft. If you can get a defensive lineman early who you believe can impact the run and the pass it’s hard to argue with that.
The lines should never be ignored in any draft. Sooner or later, doing that always proves to be a mistake.
How does that impact this draft?
The Giants have needs in the trenches on both sides. This should be a draft where the Giants use premium resources to fortify the trenches, not just late-round dart throws. I would not argue with a Round 1 trade down that netted guard Vega Ioane and additional draft assets.
5. Trade down, not up
There are very few times when any player is worth trading up for, thus causing a team to mortgage valuable draft picks. You need depth in the NFL, and you can’t accumulate it by trading away your draft choices — which is what you have to do to move up. Generally, it is better to move down and accumulate more draft choices than to move up and wind up with less. Your mistakes hurt less when you have more choices, more chances to get it right. You can take risks on occasion when you have more choices, and — if the situation is right — you can actually use some of those ‘extra’ picks to move up when you feel it is warranted.
When is it OK to move up? First and foremost, if you are moving for a guy you believe will be a franchise quarterback. If you are moving for a player at another position you believe is a franchise-changer or you have accumulated extra picks and there is a first-round player you love who fits your needs, I can support that.
I do not believe in moving up for players beyond Round 1. Big Blue View has been in existence since 2007. Here are the players the Giants, under three different GMs, have traded up for beyond the first round:
- 2023 — WR Jalin Hyatt (Round 3)
- 2021 — CB Aaron Robinson (Round 3)
- 2017 — OT Adam Bisnowaty (Round 6)
- 2015 — S Landon Collins (Round 2)
- 2013 — QB Ryan Nassib (Round 4)
- 2009 — WR Ramses Barden (Round 3)
That is six times I can recall the Giants have traded up for a player on Day 2 or Day 3. If I missed one, please remind me. The only time it was worthwhile was the trade for Collins, a player who clearly should not have been on the board at the end of Round 1. One for six is a .167 batting average. Not good. Toss in the two late-Round 1 trades up for cornerbacks Deonte Banks and Deandre Baker, and that makes one for eight.
Move down instead of up. Give yourself more swings. You will inevitably make mistakes, and more swings helps you absorb those mistakes. Trading away assets AND making a mistake with the player you move up for is a double whammy. Don’t convince yourself there is a middle round player you have to have. Those players are available in the middle rounds for a reason.
One caveat: I do happen to agree with the theory that you can move down too far. When you move down, you need to be understand the caliber of players you are passing up and be comfortable with whoever you believe will be available. You don’t want to outsmart yourself and lose out on a player or group of players you really wanted. Schoen talks about being able to sleep at night regardless of whatever decision you make.
How does that impact this draft?
Sitting at No. 5 in the first round of a draft where they could justify any of several choices, and without a third-round pick, the Giants are in an ideal trade down spot. If the Giants can move down a few spots, stay in the top 10, add a third- or fourth-round pick to make up for the Round 3 pick they are currently missing, that would be a move that could be supported.
6. Don’t ignore your strengths
I can think of two obvious areas in years gone by where the Giants ignored strengths and turned them into weaknesses.
During the early part of Tom Coughlin’s tenure the Giants had a tremendous offensive line. They ignored supplementing it for too long, and have been chasing the fix now for nearly a decade. Defensively, the Giants used to be built with multiple top-tier pass rushers. For a long time they ignored that strength and their pass rush became a liability. That isn’t really the case now.
Truth is, you never know in April exactly what your needs will be during the season. Talent wins in the NFL. Take the best players who you believe fit what you are trying to do. Along the way, hope that value meets need and your decisions are correct often enough that you don’t enter the season with too many glaring deficiencies.
How does that impact this draft?
I would think the Giants will stay away from edge players like Arvell Reese, David Bailey, and Reuben Bain should any of them be available at No. 5. There probably isn’t another position on the roster where you can say that more depth and competition isn’t needed.
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