• The Colts doled out big money to their key offensive free agents: Quarterback Daniel Jones and wide receiver Alec Pierce will enter 2026 on hefty contracts after promising seasons, but things could spiral quickly for the team if the duo can’t replicate last year’s early success.

• The Saints are paying Travis Etienne Jr. to be an elite running back: Now one of the 10 highest-paid running backs in the NFL, Etienne will need to take his game to new heights despite the Saints’ 31st-ranked PFF run-blocking grade in 2025.

• 2026 NFL Draft season is here: Try the best-in-class PFF Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2026’s top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.

Every NFL team seeks to improve its roster during free agency, but some signings carry more risk, and potentially more reward, than others. That is certainly the case with several of this year’s acquisitions.

Here are a handful of signings with serious boom-or-bust potential as soon as the 2026 season.

QB Daniel Jones and WR Alec Pierce, Indianapolis Colts

We’re doubling up here with the Colts’ two most high-profile free agents. No NFL team needs a pair of signings to work more than Indianapolis.

Jones led Indianapolis to eight wins in his first 10 outings last season while helming the NFL’s most efficient offense. However, his production began to drop off in his final five games before he tore his Achilles in Week 14. From Weeks 9-14, Jones recorded a 53.2 PFF passing grade — the third-worst mark in the NFL among 30 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks in that span.

By the end of that stretch, Jones’ season-long numbers included a relatively average 68.7 PFF passing grade alongside 13 big-time throws and 18 turnover-worthy plays. Jones has since signed a two-year, $88 million contract to lead the team again. Considering the Colts don’t carry first-round picks in 2026 or 2027, they need to find a way to win games with him under center.

Jones’ season-long production falls roughly in line with the rest of his career, so it’s fair to wonder, at least financially, if the team’s process in giving him the transition tag (worth roughly $37 million) was the right choice. That locked him in at the tag price, but other viable options such as Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa became available at the veteran’s minimum price of $1.3 million. 

That financial decision, in addition to the re-signing of Alec Pierce for $29 million per year, created something of a squeeze when trying to maintain other players. Pierce is now the 11th-highest-paid wide receiver in average annual value, which also cost the team Michael Pittman Jr., who was subsequently traded to the Steelers.

Pierce is a nice deep threat, coming off his first 1,000-yard season while earning an excellent 81.0 PFF receiving grade. Over the past two seasons, he leads all qualified players with 21.8 yards per reception, but he has yet to catch 50 passes in a season. Jones also isn’t known as a top-tier deep passer and is recovering from the aforementioned injury, which could further hinder Pierce’s ability to create explosive plays downfield.

The Colts’ offense needs to play as well as it did during their first 10 games of last season. The front office’s expensive signings of Jones and Pierce indicate that there’s a belief it will happen. If the unit can’t match that performance, things could spiral out of control, as they did when the team lost its final seven games of the 2025 season.

Carolina decided to make a couple of splashy defensive signings, including linebacker Devin Lloyd and edge defender Jaelan Phillips. Lloyd was the third-highest-graded linebacker in the NFL last season and was given $15 million in annual average value, a contract commensurate with his ability. Phillips played well last season, particularly after being traded to the Eagles but carries significant risk.

The Panthers improved a bit defensively last season but still struggled on the edge. Their edge defender unit ranked 28th in PFF grade and dead last in PFF pass-rush grade. They didn’t carry a single player who tallied at least 40 pressures last season. 

Phillips surged in 2025, ranking among the top 10 edge defenders in pressures (76) and pass-rush win rate (18.4%). Over the past four seasons, Phillips owns an 87.3 PFF pass-rush grade, which ranks 16th among all edge defenders. His 16.8% pass-rush win rate over the span ranks 13th among edge rushers with at least 100 reps. Assuming good health, Phillips is the exact pass rusher Carolina needed.

Therein lies the problem with Phillips: availability. He appeared in 18 games and played 871 snaps in 2025, but it was just his second season playing at least 700 snaps. His medical history includes ankle injuries, concussions, a ruptured Achilles and a partially torn ACL.

A $30M AAV makes Phillips the eighth-highest-paid edge defender in the NFL. If he stays healthy and lives up to the lofty salary, he can change the complexion of Carolina’s defense. His availability, or lack thereof, is the risk the Panthers are willing to take on.

After all their offensive line acquisitions last offseason, the Patriots fielded a respectable front five in 2025, a big step up from their arguably league-worst unit in 2024. However, the team’s season was punctuated by Drake Maye taking 21 sacks in the team’s four postseason games. New England also ranked just 18th in PFF run-blocking grade for the season.

After trading center Garrett Bradbury to the Bears, which should allow Jared Wilson to move back to his natural position, the Patriots had to find a starting left guard. While many fans were wondering if left tackle Will Campbell would move inside, the team opted to sign Alijah Vera-Tucker to a three-year, $42 million contract to play left guard.

Vera-Tucker, when healthy, is an excellent player who brings plenty of versatility. He logged a career-high 77.7 PFF overall grade in 2024 at right guard. He started his entire rookie season at left guard while playing more than 1,000 snaps. As a former tackle, he can play either side in a pinch, as well.

The issue for Vera-Tucker is availability. A torn Achilles and two torn triceps have ended three of his seasons, including this past season, when he didn’t play a single snap. He’s roughly a top-20 guard when healthy, which would be a huge boon to New England’s offensive line. They are banking on his ability to make that sort of impact this season and beyond.

Coming into the offseason armed with the eighth overall pick in the draft, New Orleans was thought to be among a handful of teams that could draft Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love. That would’ve made sense, given that their running backs placed 30th in PFF rushing grade and dead last in yards after contact and explosive runs in 2025.

Instead, the Saints opted to hand ex-Jaguar Travis Etienne Jr. a four-year, $47 million contract that makes him one of the 10 highest-paid running backs in the NFL. The headliner for four years in Jacksonville’s backfield, Etienne recorded his highest rushing total since 2021, while his 46 missed tackles forced and 28 explosive runs were top-15 marks in the NFL this past season.

While those numbers represent an upgrade from the players in the Saints’ 2025 backfield, New Orleans is paying Etienne to be an elite rusher. Among 72 running backs with at least 100 carries over the past two years, Etienne’s 72.3 PFF rushing grade ranks 58th. He has forced just 63 missed tackles in that span after forcing 64 in each of his first two NFL seasons.

Teams are often wary of doling out high-end contracts to running backs unless the player is elite and the environment is right. Etienne is a solid player with three 1,000-yard seasons under his belt, but he likely isn’t considered elite by most evaluators. The Saints also recorded the second-lowest PFF run-blocking grade in the NFL in 2025. There are relatively similar odds that the Saints either fixed their run game or got well out ahead of their skis with this signing.

LBs Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker, Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders, perhaps unsurprisingly, carried the NFL’s lowest-graded defense in 2025. They should be commended for making a series of moves to improve that unit this coming season. Among those additions were a pair that is tasked with fixing a subpar linebacker unit.

Former Georgia teammates Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker were brought in to fill the Raiders’ linebacker void. Dean’s $12M AAV and Walker’s $13.5M AAV make them two of the 10 highest-paid linebackers in the NFL this season.

Dean has shown throughout his NFL career that he can be a solid player when healthy. His 77.4 PFF overall grade in 2024 was a top-15 mark in the NFL. He suffered a season-ending knee injury in the playoffs, which hindered his performance upon return in 2025. He found momentum in his final few games but finished the year with a 62.2 PFF overall grade. To that point, Dean has only once played 500 snaps in a season.

Walker’s question marks come from a lack of production more so than durability. He played at least 800 snaps in each of his four seasons in Green Bay but earned a sub-60.0 PFF overall grade in each one. His coverage play was particularly disappointing, as he earned a career-low 40.9 PFF coverage grade in 2025.

Both Dean and Walker will be just 26 years old when the 2026 season ends. Perhaps their talent and chemistry as former college teammates will help them succeed in Las Vegas. However, there are serious questions that both players will need to answer to live up to their lofty contracts.

Subscribe For Full Access

Subscribe For Full Access

The Giants have had a busy offseason, including bringing in several familiar faces from John Harbaugh’s Ravens. Among them are fullback Patrick Ricard, safety Ar’Darius Washington and even punter Jordan Stout. However, their most expensive deal was the three-year, $40 million contract they handed to tight end Isaiah Likely.

Likely is a success story as a former fourth-round pick out of Coastal Carolina. His performance peaked in 2024, when he earned a solid 77.1 PFF receiving grade playing alongside Mark Andrews under Harbaugh in Baltimore. His 30 career missed tackles forced are the 12th most among tight ends since 2022, despite his ranking 28th in targets.

Likely’s future production, though, requires plenty of projection. He’s yet to finish a regular season with at least 60 targets or 500 receiving yards. 2024 was the only season in which he notched at least a 70.0 PFF receiving grade. He missed the first three games of this past season with a broken foot, which clearly hindered him throughout the year.

Likely’s role will also be in question, as he’s played just 835 snaps as an inline tight end in his career. That pales in comparison to his 1,393 snaps as a wide receiver. His skill set likely means that Theo Johnson will still play a big role in Matt Nagy’s offense. Likely will also have to justify those alignments by putting up near-elite receiving production at the position.

Likely will be just 26 years old for the entire 2026 season, and Harbaugh understands his talents more than anybody. However, the Giants are taking a bit of a gamble based on his lack of previous production.