“The Colts’ initial offer to Jones was in the range of Sam Darnold’s three-year, $100.5 million deal last offseason,” writes Breer. “Jones’s camp countered that, based on the leverage a franchise tag would have given him, a deal worth $50 million per year would be more in the ballpark of what he’d take if he did a deal before this week.”
“So rather than franchise Jones, the Colts put the transition tag on him. And here we are.”
“I do believe Jones wants to be in Indianapolis. He’s rehabbing from a torn Achilles that is going to cost him most, if not all, of his offseason. Given that, it seems obvious that his best chance to have a great 2026 would be in a familiar place, where he doesn’t have to learn a new offense or new teammates. That, of course, is Indianapolis.”
“What, then, would motivate the Colts to do a deal, rather than have Jones play on the $37.833 million tender? Here’s what: If Jones plays great in 2026, then the team would either transition him again in ’27 at $45.4 million or franchise him, and at that point, he’d have the leverage to ask for top-of-the-market money, since a third tag is prohibitively expensive. That doesn’t mean the Colts have to pay him $50 million per year now. However, it does mean that it’d behoove them to explore a longer-term deal.”
“The benefit for Jones would be having a chance to really build something with his teammates in Indianapolis and, if they can get a deal done fast enough, giving the Colts a chance to bring Pierce back into a skill group that has Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren and Josh Downs on hand.”
“So, the best thing for everyone is to hammer out a deal on Monday morning. We’ll see.”
Per OverTheCap, the quarterback franchise tag for 2026 was $43.895M, while the transition tag, which the Colts ultimately applied to Jones, before last Tuesday’s deadline, is $37.833M.
It’s a little surprising to me that Jones and his representation requested even more money than this year’s quarterback franchise tag, which in his case, is the calculation of the average of the Top 5 cap hits at the quarterback position over the last five years.
We can all reasonably agree that Jones was in the midst of a breakout campaign—and career year, in 2025 during his Colts debut season before critical injuries struck after midseason, but there’s no logical argument that he’s close to being a Top 5 quarterback in this league—and should be paid at that positional premium accordingly.
If the Colts were committed to keeping Jones as their top priority, even over wideout Alec Pierce (and right or wrong for that matter!), then it makes sense as to why Indianapolis surprisingly placed the transition tag on their QB1 instead.
There’s no way they were going to rationally reach Jones and his representation’s initial lofty contract demands, under good conscience. If someone else is, they still have the opportunity to match (which ehhhh!), and if they aren’t, the Colts get him back at a much more comfortable $37.833 million (not great, but still better than $50 million!) for next season.
In the interim, there remains the reasonable hope that the Colts and Jones can still reach a more cost effective, multi-year deal too that works out well for both sides.
While longtime general manager Chris Ballard has undertaken his fair share of criticism over this past week, with an untagged Pierce departing as an unrestricted free agent now a realistic possibility in a few days, the fact that the Colts offered Jones ‘Sam Darnold money,’ which was a 3-year, $100.5 million deal (with $55 million guaranteed) signed last offseason seems more than fair. In particular, because of where Jones is at in his respective pro career in comparison to Darnold, and especially coming off a late season torn Achilles injury.
For what it’s worth, Breer also noted that he projects Pierce’s new contract—with the Colts or elsewhere to be around $28-30 million per year, and that Indianapolis made a trade offer last summer for Cincinnati Bengals looming free agent former All-Pro defensive end Trey Hendrickson, who requested a trade last offseason. Hendrickson wasn’t franchise tagged by Cincinnati this go around, and like Pierce, is set to hit the open market as an unrestricted free agent—also as one of the most coveted players in this year’s free agency class.
See More:
