Super Bowl 60: PrizePicks best prop bets
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Each week this season, we analyzed some of the best player statistics on PrizePicks with the help of the new PFF Player Prop Tool. Betting insights, matchup data and historical hit rates are just a few of the things the tool offers.
For the final time this season, here are two props that stand out.
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TE Hunter Henry, New England Patriots: Over 38.5 receiving yards
Henry is set to cap the most productive season of his nine-year career, as he caught 60 of 83 targets for a career-high 768 yards and seven touchdowns. He was a big factor in the Patriots’ wild-card victory over the Los Angeles Chargers (64 receiving yards and a touchdown) but wasn’t utilized much against the Texans and Broncos (combined three receptions and 17 yards). Quarterback Drake Maye attempted just 48 passes over those two games while the Patriots leaned heavily on their running game and defense to advance.
A matchup with the Seattle Seahawks in the Super Bowl presents a bounce-back opportunity for Henry. Seattle has an elite coverage defense (89.8 team PFF coverage grade) but has done a better job defending wide receivers (fourth in PFF coverage grade) than tight ends (20th) this season. Additionally, Henry ranks fourth among tight ends in PFF receiving grade against zone coverage, while Seattle plays zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.
Seattle’s defense allowed an opposing tight end to record at least 46 receiving yards in 11 out of 19 games this season (including the playoffs), which bodes well for Henry’s outlook as a top option for a Patriots offense that could face a negative game script as 4.5-point underdogs.
RB Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks: Over 16.5 fantasy points
The Seahawks featured one of the league’s top running back duos this season in Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet, who had a true 50-50 split in the backfield — with just an eight-snap difference in playing time during the regular season. Charbonnet suffered a torn ACL in Seattle’s divisional-round victory over the 49ers, which has forced the team to lean on Walker as more of a true RB1 to close out this postseason.
Walker carried the ball 19 times in each of the Seahawks’ two playoff victories, accounting for 178 rushing yards (123 of which came after contact) while forcing eight missed tackles and scoring four touchdowns. He’s been utilized more in the passing game, as well, catching all seven targets thrown his way for 78 yards.
Given Walker’s recent usage, it’s fair to lock him in for 20-plus touches in the Super Bowl. He’s a strong bet for a touchdown, as well, given his role in a Seattle offense that ran the ball at the second-highest clip in the NFL this season (47.4%).
Walker’s 91.1 PFF overall grade entering the Super Bowl is tops among 59 qualifying running backs this season, which has flown under the radar because he split work with Charbonnet. Walker will look to hit free agency on a high note with another strong performance in the Super Bowl.
New England’s defense will present a tougher challenge than the Seahawks faced in their previous two playoff matchups against the 49ers and Rams, but I expect Walker to approach 100 combined rushing and receiving yards and a touchdown, which would clear his 16.5 fantasy score prop for the game.
